Will this be a hit for HBO?
We predict yes! Winning Time’s trailer launch had even more online chatter than The Last Dance’s trailer launch and, in tandem with the strong story drivers, our AI is predicting “outstanding” ratings for the series on Premium Cable (131).

Will the viewing audience be overwhelmingly male?
No. In spite of the series’ heavy Sports Focus (160), both men and women (51% male / 49% female) will tune in thanks to its Celebrity (125) character-driven drama; viewership will also skew heavily older (76% 35+).

Which of the real-life Lakers will make the most compelling character?
Magic Johnson. The show’s focus on the guidance and Mentorship (141) young Magic received from the team’s owner and coach is the #1 driver for audience engagement.

Whose perspective will be more important, the players’ or the owners’?
The players’. The show’s depiction of a real-life period in American History (130)–the Lakers’ famous Showtime era–from the African-American POV (127) of Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is a top driver of audience engagement.

Rapid Insights: Euphoria’s Still Flying High

Already a breakout hit, HBO’s intensely compelling teen drama has nearly doubled in ratings with the recent premiere of its much-talked-about second season. Here’s what you need to know about Euphoria’s first season:

How did Euphoria’s audience compare to other teenage coming-of-age dramas?

It’s older. While all shows in this genre tend to skew female, Euphoria’s intense, hard-R content attracts more adults (71% aged 35+) than shows like Gossip Girl, Love, Victor, and Sex Education (all roughly 50% under age 30).

What’s different about the social buzz around the newest season?
It’s significantly more popular. While Season 1 social tracking was strong, there were ups and downs throughout its release, whereas online chatter for Season 2 hit our max of 160 with the premiere and hasn’t dropped since.

What element most drove viewers to tweet about the show?
Nate and Maddy’s Abusive Relationship (143). Their unhealthy and turbulent teen romance propels the story’s emotional extremes (swinging from Ecstasy to Loathing) that help amp up the online social chatter.

Which character’s journey did audiences find most engaging overall?
Rue (played by Zendaya). Her role as an LGBTQ+ Protagonist (146) exploring her sexual identity as well as her battle with Alcohol & Drug Abuse (133) makes her the heavyweight contributor to the show’s stellar ratings.

What makes the first season so bingeable?
It’s no-holds-barred depiction of Teen Life (136). The show’s multi-faceted portrayals of Teen Romance (130), teen Sexual Promiscuity (130), and the complicated ordeal of growing up keep viewers coming back for more.

Does the show’s explicit sexuality help or harm its reputation?
Help. The series’ varied depictions of Sexual Activity (135) served as a key ratings driver in season 1, and the core characters’ overpowering desire for sexual contact contributes to longevity (Physical Activity (113)).

Rapid Insights: Pam & Tommy Spark Another Media Frenzy

Already earning major buzz in the media, Hulu’s scripted new limited series fleshes out the deeply personal story behind one of the 90s’ most notorious real-life celebrity sex scandals. Here’s what you need to know about Pam & Tommy:

How do Pam & Tommy viewers differ from those of other recent celebrity bio-dramas?
They’re younger and more male (53% male / 47% <30), thanks to the show’s sexual overtones. Audiences for similarly dramatized famous media scandals, such as American Crime Story (FX), A Very English Scandal, and Feud, instead tend to be more female and overwhelmingly aged 30+.

Have audiences been talking about the series premiere?
Yes. Social Buzz in the days leading up to release was very high (150), outstripping anticipation for the first seasons of similarly true stories American Crime Story, Feud, and A Very English Scandal.

How different is Pam & Tommy from other present-day dramas set in the 90s?
It pulls in a broader range of genres. Compared to similarly throwback series like American Crime Story, Pose, Clarice, On Becoming a God in Central Florida, and Selena: The Series, Pam & Tommy has fewer overly dramatic elements and instead dials up the Comedy (109) and Romance (112).

Do viewers need to be familiar with the real-life scandal before jumping in?
No. The fact that the series is Based on a True Story (101) is only a modest reason for audience engagement; instead, the intricacies of the core couple’s Romantic Relationship (112) are a much bigger draw.

What emotional experience best makes viewers want to binge Pam & Tommy?
The core couple’s outrage at their privacy being violated. Tommy’s Aggressiveness (125) and Pam’s Anger (125) at the leak of their private sex tape both contribute to the series’ bingeability and link to today’s current reckoning with the way 90s pop culture eviscerated celebrities.

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Rapid Insights: Peacemaker’s Super(hero) Success

A spin-off of DC superhero film The Suicide Squad, this series tracks the next chapter for John Cena’s snarky, violent, “I’ll kill anyone in the name of peace” vigilante and has been an instant hit for HBOMax. Here’s what you need to know about Peacemaker:

How does Peacemaker’s audience compare to other DC Universe series?
Peacemaker skews decidedly more male and slightly younger (65% male / 41% <30)  than other recent DC siblings like Watchmen, The Flash, Doom Patrol, and Black Lightning.

How does the character’s dynamic personality impact the show’s success?
He helps engage the audience. Peacemaker’s status as a narcissistic Antihero doing good by doing bad is a top driver for both bingeability (136) and social buzz (112), and his irresistible Charisma & Confidence (120) is a key component of the series’ longevity.

How does its tone differ from other DC series?
It’s funnier. The snickeringly Awkward Misadventures (117) of Peacemaker and his ill-equipped team help make the show bingeworthy, and its dark, Twisted Humor (111) and ability to play with the Comedy (122) genre sets it apart from its more serious brethren.

Are people currently talking about it?
Yes, especially compared to previous DC shows. Peacemaker has seen consistently outstanding social tracking (160) throughout its first two weeks, an achievement on par with Watchmen. Other series like Doom Patrol, Superman & Lois, and Black Lightning did not see the same level of sustained buzz.

Is Peacemaker’s heavier focus on violence a good thing?
Yes, it helps it stand out. The show’s Stylized Action & Violence (114) is a key contributor to social buzz and engagement, more so than the lighter, more broadcast-friendly action in most other DC series.

What does Peacemaker have to offer non-comic book fans?
Compellingly deep relationships. The show highlights an Unlikely Friendship (127) between its abrasive protagonist and his compassionate, morally-driven new teammate and delves into the complicated Personal Backstory (123) with his withholding father.

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Disney+’s newest entry into the Star Wars TV canon–and second live-action offering after The Mandalorian–follows the original film trilogy’s most notorious bounty hunter. Here’s what you need to know about The Book of Boba Fett:

How does Boba Fett’s audience compare to other of Disney+ Star Wars series?
Its viewer demographics (64% male / 64% 30+) are nearly identical to those of The Mandalorian but skew older than the audiences for animated programs like The Bad Batch and Visions.

Are the same story elements driving interest in both live-action Star Wars originals?
No. While their shared franchise connection is undeniably crucial to their longevity, The Mandalorian has found success primarily by tracking a core Mission (160), while Boba Fett’s appeal is centered around building out the broader Star Wars Universe (125).

How do the key emotional drivers for Boba Fett compare to those of The Mandalorian? 
They’re a study in contrasts. Boba Fett’s suspenseful, dark plunge into Tatooine’s criminal underworld introduces Terror and Surprise, which contrasts sharply with The Mandalorian’s more whimsical journey with baby Grogu and feelings of Awe and Amazement.

What is the impact of the central character in each live-action Star Wars series?Though opposites in nature, both drive engagement. Anti-hero criminal Boba Fett’s Tough Guy (114) posturing allows for Stylized Violence (124) inside a Criminal Organization (117), all of which boost series viewership. For The Mandalorian, engagement depends on the more traditionally heroic Mando’s Bravery (132) and Stepping Up (133) when needed.

How has Boba Fett’s social tracking differed its series predecessor?
It’s been positive but more variable. In contrast, buzz for The Mandalorian skyrocketed with its Season 1 premiere and remained consistently high throughout its first month of release – fueled by it being the first Star Wars live-action offered on Disney+.

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How does the prequel’s audience differ from that of the original series?
It’s markedly younger and more male. The move from linear to streaming-only has shifted viewer demographics younger, while the more traditional western themes are driving more males. Yellowstone: 49% male / 88% 35+, 1883’s 61% male / 67% 30+.

Is this a short term spin off or long term franchise piece?
A long term piece of the franchise. The IP Extension (121) is a top driver for the prequel’s longevity, and the parallels between 1883’s Dutton family and their direct descendants on Yellowstone not only hook audiences, but will keep them invested for multiple seasons. The fact that both shows will inform each other will also help sustain viewership long term.

What’s driving the success of both series?
They’re all about family. Just like its predecessor, 1883 primarily focuses on the soapy, dramatic Family Life (137) and Family Relationship (129) of the Dutton clan, critical ratings drivers for both shows. That said, while Yellowstone’s family themes were more rooted in building an empire together, 1883 will be successful by emphasizing the Dutton family coming together as they traverse brutal the Great Plains to stake their claim in Montana.

How does Sam Elliot’s character impact the show’s dynamics?
He adds complexity to the suspense. The compelling questions of Trust and Loyalty (141) introduced by his mysterious cowboy character not only drive ratings but also bingeability and social buzz.

Does the inclusion of more traditional western action help 1883’s ratings?
Somewhat. While the series’ brutal, gun-based Action & Violence (118) helps mostly with social buzz, it also leans into themes of Bravery (127) and Survival Skills (116) that more directly impact viewership.

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Rapid Insights: 2021 Wrap Up

With the year nearly over and many new shows on the horizon, Vault wanted to take a look back on the most successful series of 2021 and highlight a few key trends! Here’s what we were able to find using StoryGuide:

The Marvel(ous) Revolution That Changed Streaming:

In early 2021, the Marvel TV universe exploded onto Disney+ beginning with WandaVision, Falcon and the Winter Soldier, and Loki, helping to drive the streamer’s exponential rise. With these new series tied directly to the franchise’s cinematic world (much more so than pre-2021 forebearers like Daredevil, Luke Cage, and Legion), it’s no surprise that their Marvel Universe connection is even more crucial to their bingeability and ratings. And thanks to the Stylized Action & Violence and Distinctly Realized Worlds that elevate their superhero trappings, StoryGuide predicts that they will have long and successful runs.
International Sensations Landed in the USA:

Netflix’s heavy investment in global content reaped significant rewards this year, with huge international hits successfully translating to domestic audiences. Korea’s Squid Game and Mexico’s Who Killed Sara? made a massive splash, and new seasons of Spain’s Money Heist and France’s Lupin landed in the US top 10 as well. The crime thriller genre, especially with elements of action and mystery, helped these titles transcend borders and languages—viewers in every country love excitement—and drivers like Murder Mystery and Criminal Investigation contribute to their longevity around the world.
Families Brought Humor in Dark Times:

In Year Two of the COVID pandemic, audiences turned toward a succession of comedies and satires to make them laugh and help them cope, and family emerged as a prominent theme. From the pitch-black send-up of a toxic sitcom marriage to the wholesomely upbeat vibes of a found-family pro soccer team, viewers wanted to spend time with relationships outside of their own, and though humor remained a core part of the attraction, it was the ups and downs of the characters’ interpersonal dramas that kept them hooked.
New Dramas Offered Unique American Perspectives:

As part of a larger trend toward drama, 2021 introduced several groundbreaking new series that offered a glimpse into the lives of struggling working class protagonists across the country, from a small Pennsylvania town dealing with murder to a group of Indigenous teens in rural Oklahoma. Unlike the 2020 which premiered dramas with more affluent and traditionally educated characters (The Great, Queen’s Gambit, Little Fires), each painted a compellingly specific portrait of time and place, and their rich depictions of unique family and friend relationships—dysfunctional and supportive alike—served to drive interest for viewers curious to spend time in their unfamiliar settings.
Reboots and Remakes Continued to Make a Splash:

This past year also ramped up the decades-long trend of remaking and rebooting successful IP. Audiences were treated to updated versions of older series (The Equalizer, Fantasy Island, The Wonder Years, and Gossip Girl), a new Law & Order: SVU spin-off with a familiar lead, and same-cast continuations of two shows (Dexter and Sex and the City) that never left the cultural zeitgeist. Likely thanks to their older source material, all of these series—with the notable exception of the teen-heavy Gossip Girl—skew heavily toward viewers 35+, but interestingly, the IP Extension is a top ratings driver only for Dexter (other aspects draw viewers to the remaining shows).
Unscripted Felt a Bit Warmer:

Many of the new reality series introduced in 2021 leaned into a sense of positivity and a more enlightened reimagining of past unscripted tropes. This is in comparison to 2020’s more cut-throat shows like Tiger King and Too Hot to Handle. Indeed, The Challenge: All Stars spin-off highlighted Teamwork, Bravery, and Friendships, while shows like The Hype centered around Creativity and Charisma & Confidence. Married at First Sight: Unmatchables gave previously unsuccessful contestants a second chance at Love, Bling Empire brought us a new cultural perspective of wealthy Asians and Asian-Americans, while FBoy Island finally put the power in the women’s hands in a Bachelor-like set-up.