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Late next month, HBOMax will give another boost to the recent true crime drama trend by releasing a new limited series that delves into the whys and wherefores of a brutal real-life murder. Created by the ever-prolific David E. Kelley, the show stars Elizabeth Olsen as Texan housewife Candy Montgomery, who was accused in 1980 of taking an ax to her lover’s wife–who also happened to be her best friend.

Here’s what you need to know about Love & Death:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this dramatized murder?
Older women. We’re predicting an audience that’s 61% female and 70% aged 30+, a profile similar to the viewership for other female-led recent true crime dramas like The Thing About Pam, Inventing Anna, The Girl from Plainville, The Act, and Candy, Hulu’s 2022 take on the same memorable story.

What type of story will Love & Death be telling?
A layered one. The series opens with a murder Mystery (126), teasing questions about victim and slayer, and from there spins out a complicated, outrageous tale of Crime (124), interpersonal Drama (122), uneasy suspense (Thriller, 114), and a central character who contains multitudes (Biography, 111).

What will be the show’s biggest selling point?
Its complex relationships. As told through Candy’s warped perspective (The Accused POV, 135), the audience will get a front row seat to the building Romantic Tension (138) between the soon-to-be murderer and her lover, the Marital Problems (123) mushrooming within her own marriage, and the tangled, intersecting Family Relationships (127) between the two couples at the heart of this story. This series is living proof that Small Town Life (120) doesn’t always equal small town happenings, and all are top ratings drivers.

What will keep viewers watching?
The depravity of the real-life case. Candy’s betrayal of her victim and over-the-top choice of weapon–she struck her friend 41 times with a wood splitting ax–will create an irresistible trainwreck of Bloody Violence (126) and Dark Themes (125) from which audiences won’t be able to look away. The fact that it’s all Based on a True Story (128) will make the entire tale even more compelling.

How does the social buzz look?
Strong. The show has already reached a high-water mark of 140 (out of a possible 160) with only a teaser trailer; things will undoubtedly pick up even more as its campaign gets underway (a pattern mimicking Candy, which maxed out our buzz meter upon release). Once it airs, viewers will be tweeting about the same jarring elements that will make it so deliciously bingeable (its dark, twisted streak).

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Audience interest in royalty is evergreen, with recent years seeing a notable uptick in series focused on their private lives. Three have risen to prominence: The Crown, The Great, and Bridgerton. Netflix’s The Crown follows Queen Elizabeth II, Hulu’s The Great is a satire of Catherine the Great, and Netflix’s Bridgerton is a largely fictionalized series with a new prequel spin-off – Queen Charlotte – coming out in May. With all three showing such success, we’ll likely see more royal dramas to come.

Here’s what you need to know about this trend:

What type of viewers typically tune in for royal period dramas?
It depends. For shows like The Crown, which follows a Strong Female Protagonist (122) and takes a more straightforward Biographical (130) approach to History (141), the audience skews toward older women (59% female and 72% aged 30+). In contrast, The Great maintains a sly, winking tone full of Satirical Humor (122) and looser ties to historical fact, which, along with its male co-lead, results in a much more gender-balanced, younger viewership (48% female, 63% aged 30+). With Queen Charlotte sharing Bridgerton’s DNA and focusing much more heavily on Romance (125) than other entries in the genre, we’re predicting a mostly female (67%) audience nearly identical to that of its predecessor.

How much online chatter do these series have the potential to generate?
Tons. When done well, this genre can easily break into the zeitgeist and become a force on social media: every season of The Crown as well as S1 of The Great maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) upon their release (and The Crown’s ties to recent real-world events certainly doesn’t hurt). While Queen Charlotte has not yet hit the same highs at two months out, it’s undoubtedly only a matter of time given the smash-hit popularity of Bridgerton and its wild success in commandeering the internet’s attention.

What’s the strongest draw for these types of shows?
Their peek behind the royal curtain. Viewers are eminently curious about the lives of kings and queens, and these series’ collective focus on Royalty (160), court Political Life (123), and the overarching desires for Power (135), Honor (136), Independence (137), and Social Status (123) among those bearing the crown is a key driver for their ratings and especially bingeability.

How similar is the storytelling approach of these three shows?
Not at all. The Crown keeps the entire Windsor lineage in its spotlight and grapples with dramatic themes of Family Legacy (152), Family Dysfunction (146), and Strained Family Relationships (143), all crucial drivers for the show’s ratings. The Great, in contrast, is more laser-focused on the couple (Peter III and Catherine II) at its center, and audiences tune in for its sharp, funny depictions of Marital Problems (141) and Adultery (129) within a Loveless Marriage (141). Queen Charlotte will instead be more of an individual story encompassing a Journey of Self-Discovery (114) as the maturing queen confronts a Life-Changing Decision (116) about her future marriage (in keeping with the Bridgerton franchise focus on First Love (127)).

How important will the Bridgerton link be to Queen Charlotte?
Extremely. While The Crown and The Great can lean on their portrayals of well-known historical figures as a hook to lure in viewers, the somewhat fictional Queen Charlotte has no such ‘in’ (while there was a real-life Queen Charlotte, she’s relatively unknown and reimagined for the show). Instead, the popularity of its parent series has created a similar enticement by pre-familiarizing audiences with its main characters; this franchise connection (IP Extension, 120) is one of Queen Charlotte’s top overall viewership drivers.

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The never-actually-planned sequel to History of the World: Part 1 (the subtitle was a joke) is about to become an unexpected reality, as the illustrious Mel Brooks has at long last penned a continuation of his hysterically beloved 1981 film. The resulting sketch comedy limited series rolls out on Hulu next week as a four-night special event and is one of the most anticipated shows of the year, having picked up considerable buzz since its widely shared trailer drop thanks in no small part to its star-studded cast.

Here’s what you need to know about History of the World: Part II:

How will History of the World’s audience compare to other sketch comedy series?
It will include more men. We’re predicting that History viewers will be both mostly male (67%) and mostly older (61%), a somewhat more angular audience than the norm. Previous shows like The Eric Andre Show and Portlandia only leaned male (both 57%), while others (Inside Amy Schumer, MadTV, Key & Peele) fell closer to a gender-balanced middle ground (46-51% male).

What will be the show’s biggest draw?
Its zaniness. The crazy, Over-the-Top Humor (147) derived from its outrageous “historical” scenarios and the goofy Foolishness (147) of its satirical characters is History’s most distinctive feature. The show also stars a veritable who’s who in the comedy world, including Wanda Sykes, Nick Kroll, Danny DeVito, Johnny Knoxville, Taika Waititi, Seth Rogan, Sarah Silverman, Jack Black, and many more, and viewers will want to tune in to see their delectable take on Brooks’s comedy.

What will keep viewers coming back each night?
The history. Underneath the jokes, quips, and clever parodies is a foundation (loosely) Based on Historical Events (130), with sketches centered around well-known figures like Sigmund Freud, Marco Polo, and Harriet Tubman. There are even prominent Religious Themes (119) as the show dips into biblical personages like Mary Magdalene and Noah (of Noah’s Ark fame). The series doesn’t just offer laughs, it also taps into the Emotional Rollercoaster (132) of major, real-life world events, which will make it eminently bingeworthy.

What will get people talking online?
The creative license it takes with history. Buzz-wise, the series is already off to a great start, as the early February trailer release shot to 8M views on YouTube within only two weeks. Once the episodes roll out, it’s the reimagined settings and reinvented situations that viewers will want to discuss; audiences will be excited to see familiar real-world figures brought to life with a modern wink, with exaggerated personalities and outlandish Workplace Dynamics (130) to bring out the comedy.

The newest film in the DC Universe will be releasing next month as the sequel to the wildly successful 2019 title Shazam! The franchise’s most family-friendly crusader, Shazam! tells the story of 15-year-old Billy Batson, an unhappy foster teen granted godlike powers by an ancient wizard; by simply uttering his alterego’s name, he gains the ability to transform into an adult superhero and  save the world. This new movie continues his adventures as he fights alongside his team of similarly supercharged foster siblings against a newer, scarier set of villains.

Here’s what you need to know about Shazam! Fury of the Gods:

Will the same Shazam! audience show up for the sequel?
Yes. We’re predicting that Fury of the Gods will be as broadly appealing as the first movie, luring in both the male-skewing DC fanbase as well as the family crowd with kids and their parents. Our model suggests that demand will be highest for boys under 18 (148), with men 18-29 (141) right behind.

Why will moviegoers want to buy tickets?
Thrilling action. The Fury of the Gods trailers showcase the same elements that attracted viewers to the original Shazam! (Superhero Adventures, 117; Super Powers, 113; Fighting Crime, 112) but on a broader scale now that teen Billy Batson has learned to fully use his special powers. This time, Mass Destruction (139) is on order within the iconic New York Cityscape (126), with cars, buildings, and other immense objects–and Shazam himself–crashing, Falling (123), and generally causing mayhem.

What makes Shazam so likable?
His emotional depth. Of course, Batson’s one-word transformation into his high-powered alterego (Superhero Suit, 134) and manipulation of The Living Lightning (116) (among other cool abilities) continue to be audience highlights. But before he can save the day, our hero must overcome crippling Self-Doubt (114) as he struggles to find his place in a world with Batman, Aquaman, and other impressive megastars. (Just as in the first movie, fans will undoubtedly appreciate the larger DC Universe (133) references.)

What will set Fury of the Gods apart from its predecessor?
Bigger, badder villains. In the second film, Shazam must face off against the Daughters of Atlas, a trio of fearsome Female Supervillains (131) who want to steal his powers and are willing to destroy the world in the process. On their side is a veritable army of supernatural monsters, including a massive, formidable Dragon (115) that threatens to crush Shazam himself.

What makes Shazam unique as a superhero?
His supercharged Foster Siblings (110). Unlike Batman and Aquaman, Shazam fights with a team, and it’s this group of teens-turned-adult-superheroes that makes the franchise stand out. Shazam himself granted them powers by sharing his own, and the unbreakable bond forged among this adopted clan both sets up the movie’s family-friendly themes and serves as its primary driver of freshness.

Coming to Amazon Prime next month is a hotly anticipated new limited series based on the New York Times bestselling novel by author Taylor Jenkins Reid. The show outlines the rise and fall of a fictional 1970s rock band partly inspired by Fleetwood Mac, with lead singer Daisy–played by Elvis Presley’s real-life granddaughter–vaguely channeling Stevie Nicks.

Here’s what you need to know about Daisy Jones & the Six:

Just in time for Valentine’s Day comes Netflix’s buzzy new romantic comedy that sees two stalwarts of the genre working together for the first time. From the writer of rom-com classics The Devil Wears Prada, 27 Dresses, and Morning Glory, the film stars Reese Witherspoon and Ashton Kutcher as two long-distance best friends who trade lives for a week. Peter takes care of Debbie’s teenage son in Los Angeles and Debbie finds new love in Peter’s New York. Ultimately, this trade-off sparks growth, connection, and a final realization of the feelings the pair have always harbored for each other.

Here’s what you need to know about Your Place or Mine:

Who will be tuning in to check out this new movie?
Women. We’re predicting a heavily female audience with demand greatest among women 18-54 (123-128), numbers in line with the overall rom-com genre where adult characters take the lead. (Teen girls will likely show softer interest thanks to the lack of teenage protagonists.)

What is Your Place or Mine’s most important driver of demand?
The irresistible comfort of a familiar story. Above all, viewers will be drawn to the film’s Classic Rom-Com (160) trappings, leaning into the standard hallmarks of the genre that serve up the warm, fuzzy feelings they crave: the Awkward & Funny Moments (136) that inject humor and relatability; the inevitable Love Triangle (127) with an unlucky third party; and the climax of Learning the Truth (116) where the characters at long last discover their own feelings for each other. In these types of movies, it’s not the destination but rather the journey that’s important, and audiences will delight in watching the lead couple fumble their way toward each other for a final onscreen kiss.

What else is key for pulling in viewers?
The film’s sticky premise. The set-up of Your Place or Mine creates a compelling scenario ripe for character growth and ultimate audience satisfaction, as two protagonists with opposing personalities and lifestyles migrate toward each other and eventually meet in the middle. The Complicated Relationship (145) between Debbie and Peter–a long-lived, long-distance friendship that blurs the lines between platonic and romantic–makes their decision to Switch Places (141) and live each other’s lives for a week all the juicier, and the fact that they’re coming from opposite perspectives–Debbie’s an uptight Single Mother (139) to a teenage son, while Peter’s an impulsive swinging bachelor–amps up the drama. All are important drivers of demand.

What will set this film apart from other rom-com classics?
The quirks of the central exchange. More specifically, the focus on Debbie’s POV (119) as she delights in a number of revelations (new city, new fling, old friend turned lover) in middle-age, broadens her perspective, and opens herself up to new experiences is a top driver of freshness, as are the two swapped Wingwomen (116) (Tig Notaro, Zoë Chao) who step in to help each character acclimate to their temporary new life. The fact that Debbie and Peter have maintained a successful Long-Distance Friendship (112) for twenty years via video calling and other technology also makes the film feel modern and up-to-date.

What’s driving the current social buzz?
The cast and the release date. Potential viewers are largely tweeting about the involvement of popular leads Witherspoon and Kutcher, with many excited to see them return to the rom-com format, as well as the film’s well-timed arrival during the Valentine’s Day season.

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