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Next month, HBO will release its much-hyped take on the LA-based pop music industry. It’s a take that leans heavily into depravity and sex as it depicts (according to the trailer) “the sleaziest love story in all of Hollywood.” The brainchild of Abel “The Weeknd” Tesfaye and directed by Sam Levinson (Euphoria), the series focuses on aspiring pop idol Jocelyn (Lily-Rose Depp) as she falls into a complex relationship with a self-help guru and cult leader (Tesfaye).

Here’s what you need to know about The Idol:

How will its audience compare to other music industry dramas?
It’ll be more gender-balanced. In general, this genre’s built-in melodrama attracts more women (Empire, Atlanta, Daisy Jones & the Six, Nashville, Monarch, and Queens all skewed 56%-67% female). Still, with The Idol’s heavy focus on sex, nudity, and prominence of The Weeknd’s cult leader character, we predict that more men than usual will tune in (51% male / 49% female).

Why will viewers want to watch?
For the Moral Ambiguity (124). The Idol revels in the Dark Themes (116) of a dysfunctional, potentially abusive relationship between pop star and cult leader, where Sexual Promiscuity (115) leads to empowerment. Viewers will be drawn in by the twisted combination of Love (118) and Terror (116) that defines this central connection.

How important will the musical backdrop be to The Idol’s success?
Crucial. Viewers across this category are intrigued by the politics, drama, and inner workings of the Music Industry (135). The theme consistently lands as a top viewership driver for ratings, bingeability, and longevity, whether the show focuses on hip hop, country, or rock. For The Idol specifically, its critique of the pop music world is the critical factor for social buzz (135) and bingability (134).

How is The Idol’s social buzz looking?
Very promising. The show’s initial teaser drop maxed out our meter (at 160) in July 2022, with subsequent marketing efforts resulting in similar spikes in online chatter. Its buzz also received a boost (again hitting 160) in early March when Rolling Stone reported on its contentious mid-production creative overhaul, quoting a crew member in calling it “twisted torture porn”.

What will help The Idol reach a second season?
Jocelyn’s story. She’s a sympathetic Female Protagonist (130) that viewers want to root for. While her extravagantly Wealthy Lifestyle (121) provides a dose of lighter escapism, the darker elements of her toxic Romantic Relationship (142) will provide the best fodder for future episodes. In this way, The Idol fits right in among previous music biz series; rather than the trappings of the music industry itself, it’s always the characters’ relationships–from sibling rivalry to friendship conflict to parent-child dysfunction to adultery–that drive their shows’ longevity.

Disney+’s next entry in the Marvel canon, releasing in early June, will be the first streaming series of the MCU’s Phase Five and has already picked up considerable buzz. Based on the comic storyline of the same name, the show will follow Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and his allies as they attempt to thwart a Skrull invasion of Earth before the alien shapeshifters can destroy all of humanity.

Here’s what you need to know about Secret Invasion:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

How will this audience compare to Disney+’s other Marvel series?
It’ll be more gender-skewed than most. We’re predicting a heavily male (62%) viewership, much more so than The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (57%), Hawkeye (52%), Moon Knight (54%), WandaVision (50%), and She-Hulk (53%); Loki is its closest comp (at 60% male). All, however, appeal similarly to a mostly older demo (60-66% aged 30+).

How is the online buzz looking?
Stellar. Its social tracking maxed out our buzz meter (at 160) after its second trailer drop (and hit (150) after its first), scores very much in line with Marvel’s typical highs; most of the previous series stayed in the conversation long after their episodes released, and Secret Invasion seems poised to do the same. Viewers will primarily be tweeting about the Skrull invasion conspiracy and Nick Fury’s Search for the Truth (135).

Which aspect of the show will viewers most be tuning in to see?
A deeper portrait of Nick Fury. After a long post-Endgame stint in deep space, Fury’s return to Earth (Lifestyle Change, 156) is complicated by an existential crisis–and the potential end of humanity. His team-up with allies Talos and Maria Hill (Co-Worker Relationships, 134) to stop the Skrull invasion will shed more light on his enigmatic character as well as offer plenty of classic Marvel Stylized Action & Violence (113). All will be top ratings drivers.

How important is Secret invasion’s connection to the MCU?
Absolutely essential. The show’s place within the broader Marvel Universe (150) is its top driver of bingeability, a common theme for all of the Disney+ Marvel series (the motif is the #1 or #2 bingeability driver across the board). Viewers won’t be able to look away as the story links itself back to previously-revealed characters and events, such as the Skrulls’ backstory in Captain Marvel (Alien Lifeform, 112).

What will carry this miniseries into future MCU spin-offs?
Its tense revelations. Though Secret Invasion has been conceived as a limited-length show, the Dangerous Missions (114) undertaken by Nick Fury and his allies and the threatening Secrets & Lies (117) they uncover will help feed into the brand’s next phases of storytelling.

Next month, Apple TV+ will be releasing a dark, post-apocalyptic, sci-fi-tinged drama that leans into the recent streaming craze of adapting compelling dystopian novels for the small screen. The series will join the likes of HBOMax’s Station Eleven and Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale in exploring themes of humanity and society in the face of global disaster, from a pandemic to mass female infertility to a ruined and uninhabitable planet.

Here’s what you need to know about Silo and this broader trend:

Who’s the typical audience for dystopian dramas?
It varies. This genre generally skews older (67-71% aged 30+) but hits different gender sweet spots depending on execution. On one end of the spectrum lies The Handmaid’s Tale, attracting mostly women (59%) thanks to its themes of Female Friendship (141) and oppression (Religious Themes, 142); on the other is Silo, expected to be mostly male (59%) due to its embrace of harder Sci-Fi (130) and futuristic Gizmos & Technology (132). Station Eleven falls in the middle (gender balanced at 51% male/49% female); its multi-story structure (Narrative Device, 127) offers something for everyone.

How much potential do these series have for generating online chatter?
A lot. Even in its fifth season, The Handmaid’s Tale maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) with its late-2022 premiere, and Station Eleven hit a high of (149) when it concluded its limited run in September 2021. Though Silo hasn’t quite broken through just yet, at a month out, there’s still plenty of time for it to start a similar social media fire.

What drives ratings for these types of shows?
Characters fighting back against a dark future. By definition, their Distinctly Realized Worlds (134) are compellingly pessimistic, whether they paint a picture of an uninhabitable Earth (World Turned Upside-Down, 133), the near-end of humanity (Death of a Loved One, 116), or the chilling dominance of Totalitarianism (136) and Abuses of Power (124). In response, their protagonists band together, determined to survive; they make Life-Changing Decisions (111), form Resistance Groups (154), and grapple with issues of Morality (125) to keep the chaos at bay (Overcoming Adversity, 128) and, hopefully, change their worlds for the better.

What do audiences want to see the protagonists strive for?
Their humanity. This genre challenges its characters to find a sense of belonging, connection, and peace–all basic human needs–within devastating and inhumane conditions. They yearn for Family (135), Social Contact (134), Honor (128), Acceptance (131), Order (133), and Tranquility (133), all of which boost ratings.

What kind of emotional experience do viewers come in craving?
A mix of dark and light. Audiences are drawn to the bleak horror of these dystopian landscapes and the characters’ overriding Vigilance (130), Sadness (129), Anger (129), Aggressiveness (129), and Fear (129). At the same time, glimpses of hope puncture the darkness and viewers lean in when it seems things could get better, with moments of Acceptance (138), Optimism (137), Amazement (129), and even Joy (134) and Ecstasy (111).

What will set Silo apart from other series in this genre?
Its Mystery (117). Whereas most dystopian dramas take place on a broader stage–both The Handmaid’s Tale and Station Eleven encompass farflung settings and make no secret of their characters’ realities–the storytelling in Silo is confined to a sealed-off underground city. As its citizens begin to question their confinement and suspect high-level Conspiracies & Cover-Ups (131), the series poses plenty of questions about the true state of its outside world.

Is their source material important?
Yes. The fact that these series are based on well-known, fully-realized novels is a key viewership driver across the board (Based on a Book).

Next week, Amazon Studios will swish into the wide world of sports (nothing but net!) with the theatrical release of its new biographical sports drama. Directed by Ben Affleck and starring Affleck, Matt Damon, and Viola Davis, the movie chronicles the origin of the iconic Air Jordan sneaker, when a Nike salesman approached then-rookie Michael Jordan with an unprecedented and at-the-time risky multi-million-dollar deal.

Here’s what you need to know about Air:

Who will be buying tickets to this real-life sports drama?
Men 30+. This demo shows the strongest demand (110) for the film and is predicted to make up its largest audience segment (at 41%). Not surprisingly, fans of the Michael Jordan docuseries The Last Dance (130) are all in for this upcoming film. We also see a healthy appetite among fans of the recent successful sports movie Creed III (112).

What is Air’s biggest overall selling point?
Its basis in history. The Air Jordan (160) brand and its Jumpman logo have become so globally recognizable that audiences will be eager to see the story of its birth (Inspired by True Events, 125), especially as that story is tied to a beloved basketball icon.

Why will older men be so interested?
It’s rooted in sports. The film provides a lens into American Sports History (153) and professional basketball culture (NBA, 160), catnip for many in this demographic. Michael Jordan’s then-Rookie (160) status will also be a source of delight for enthusiastic fans who know what’s coming once the deal has been signed.

How can the movie appeal to women?
By leaning into the creative process. The Fashion (135) and pop culture aspects of the shoe’s design and the ingenuity with which Nike courted Jordan (Creativity and Success, 118) will help draw in female viewers less interested in the sports of it all. They’ll also root for Viola Davis’s Tough Mom (141), who, in seeking the best deal for her son, proves to be a powerful force in the negotiations; her character also sets the film apart from similar sports dramas (with a freshness score of 117).

What does Air’s online buzz look like?
Strong. Social media users are primarily tweeting about the movie’s director, cast, and SXSW premiere as well as its links to Michael Jordan, who, though not officially involved, gave the film his blessing.