Author: Claire Turner

Next month, Disney+ will release a series-length continuation of National Treasure, a wildly successful action-adventure film franchise from the mid-2000s. The new show will honor what came before–including with familiar faces, as actors Justin Bartha and Harvey Keitel will reprise their original supporting roles–while still adding a fresh twist by focusing on a younger, more diverse group of treasure hunters led by Jess, a twenty-year-old Dreamer trying to solve a deep family mystery. Vault predicts this new series will reinvigorate the franchise, striking ratings gold with audiences. Here’s what you need to know about National Treasure: Edge of History:

With its gritty new western-set crime drama, Paramount+ continues its fruitful partnership with mega-creator Taylor Sheridan (Yellowstone, 1883, Mayor of Kingstown) and lays the groundwork for another buzzworthy success. The series stars Sylvester Stallone–making his streaming TV debut–as a once-powerful New York Mafioso just released from prison who is sent to Oklahoma by his superiors to establish a new criminal operation. Here’s what you need to know about Tulsa King:

Just in time for Halloween comes Netflix’s spooktacular new anthology series–each episode tells a unique, self-contained story–that will delve into the fantastical and macabre and challenge the classical horror genre as only director Guillermo del Toro can. Created by the well-known Oscar-winner, the show offers up a chocolate box of eerie tales, each one containing something new and unexpected, and will follow a similarly novel roll-out: the eight episodes will be released in pairs, grouped thematically, on four successive nights. Here’s what you need to know about Guillermo del Toro’s Cabinet of Curiosities:

How will Cabinet’s audience compare to those of other recent horror anthology series?
It’ll be more evenly balanced. Cabinet of Curiosities is, uniquely, predicted to appeal equally to both men and women, and, while it will likely lean older (with 57% aged 30+), it shows less of a bias toward the 30+ crowd than similar shows. In contrast, American Horror Stories leans more decidedly female (57%), while zombiefest Tales of the Walking Dead as well as the more overtly sci-fi The Twilight Zone and Black Mirror all skew much more male (53-60%) and considerably older (63-86% aged 30+).

How is the show’s social tracking?
Rising. Cabinet’s social buzz initially peaked at 135 in late September with its official trailer drop and, after a brief lull, has skyrocketed (160) thanks to the series’ release. For comparison, neither of the episode releases for American Horror Stories nor Tales of the Walking Dead quite reached the heights of online chatter that surrounded Cabinet’s full-length trailer.

Why will viewers be tuning in?
For the Halloween-appropriate themes. In addition to the lure of del Toro’s fantastical stylings, each episode’s heightened Scary Situations (149), where various characters must confront risky, sinister, Life in Danger (136)-type scenarios, and the wickedly Evil Spirits (132) that haunt them all will entice audiences and draw big ratings.

What emotional experience can viewers expect?
An unsettling one. Cabinet plays up feelings of Disgust (133) thanks to its built-in themes surrounding Death (135) and the macabre as well as the Terror (124) and Surprise (120) of characters desperate to escape with their lives.

How important is the involvement of series creator Guillermo del Toro?
Essential. Del Toro’s unique sensibility and visual style, established in past triumphs like Pan’s Labyrinth, Hellboy, and The Shape of Water, is similarly evident in Cabinet, which leans heavily into his signature milieu. The Myth & Fantasy (160), compellingly imaginative Magical Creatures (123), and overall sense of wonder and Magic (121)–albeit of a darker turn here–that have come to define his brand are crucial viewership drivers for his new series.

What’s the impact of the show’s anthology format?
It drives bingeability. The fact that the series is Based on a Book (154)–or, more accurately, a number of short stories by different writers–and that every episode tells a distinct, standalone tale with a different tone and theme makes viewers eager to watch them all.

Next month, Marvel will release the much-awaited sequel to its critically-acclaimed blockbuster hit Black Panther, and audiences are champing at the bit to find out what will happen to the citizens of Wakanda. Specific details around the plot have largely been kept under wraps, and there is much debate over which character–if any–will be taking over the mantle of Black Panther from the beloved, much-missed Chadwick Boseman/T’Challa. Here’s what you need to know about Black Panther: Wakanda Forever:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Will the audience for Wakanda Forever be the same as for its predecessor?
Yes. We’re predicting a nearly identical age breakdown for the sequel (43% <30 / 57% 30+) as was seen with the original film (42% <30 / 58% 30+), and a very similar close-to-even gender split.

How will the film address the loss of Chadwick Boseman?
By fully embracing the grief. Wakanda Forever is a film that, both on and off screen, begins in the wake of an unexpected tragedy. The sadness underpinning the movie’s broader sense of adventure coalesces in a secondary storyline of Mourning (112) as the people of Wakanda come to terms with the loss of the beloved T’Challa. The new vacuum in the nation’s power structure also allows Ramonda, Shuri, Okoye, and other Strong Women (111) to step further into the spotlight as they grapple with questions of Royal Succession (109) and who is best positioned to replace him as leader. These more emotional elements are a stronger draw for female audiences.

What is everyone talking about in advance of the film’s premiere?
The film’s newest character. As expected, there’s a sky-high level of anticipation for Wakanda Forever, and many intended viewers are expressing their interest on social media through a large volume of posts and tweets (clearing 3.5 million on Twitter alone over just the past two weeks). In addition to the beloved cast that will be returning from the first film, these online denizens are discussing the newest addition to the franchise: Namor, the mutant king of an ancient underwater empire, as well as Tenoch Huerta, the actor who portrays him. Marvel fans are especially excited to see this well-liked comic book character brought to life.

What will set Wakanda Forever apart from the original Black Panther?
The exploration of an intriguing new civilization. The Underwater World (134) of Talokan, ruled by the mutant king Namor, and the imaginative Futuristic Warfare (136) and technology that they employ against their land-bound enemies are the key freshness drivers for this new film.

What’s the main story draw for Wakanda Forever?
Its civilization-destroying stakes. This sequel introduces a broad Geopolitical Conflict (123) that arises between Wakanda and other nations as the former is made vulnerable by the death of its king, as well as the battle between Tradition vs. Modernity (117) as the Wakandan people fight to protect their cultural heritage and way of life (both of which are particularly appealing for male viewers). While it did touch on some of these themes, the original Black Panther, in contrast, largely focused on a more personal story of Revenge (121).

How important is the film’s Black point of view?
Still essential, but not as much of a front-and-center draw as for Black Panther. Given that the original movie introduced the first Black Marvel superhero, its refreshingly all-Black cast and centering of a Black Narrative was its top ratings draw (140) and a key component in differentiating it from other action-adventure films (110). As this concept has thankfully become less unique even in only the past few years, the fact that Wakanda Forever offers a similar Black focus is still an important driver of demand, but it has lessened in strength (115) and now falls behind the movie’s broader stakes in convincing theatergoers to buy tickets.

In mid-November, Netflix will release an intriguing new supernatural horror project from the creators of the German-language series Dark, which proved to be a favorite among both audiences and critics. This new series promises to be an epic, mind-bending thriller, following a group of European migrants at the turn of the 20th century whose hopeful steamship journey to New York turns into a nightmare when they encounter another mysterious vessel adrift at sea. Here’s what you need to know about 1899:

How will 1899 viewers compare to those who watched Dark?
They’ll include more men. While both series cater to a mostly older audience (64-65% aged 30+), the nautically-themed 1899 is expected to lean male (53% male / 47% female), whereas Dark leaned more female (47% male / 53% female).

How will 1899 compare to Dark?
It will offer a spookier tone and broader focus. While Dark, with its storylines around multigenerational time travel, delved heavily into elements of thrilling sci-fi, 1899 will lean more directly into themes of mystery and horror. Similarly, where Dark focused on a more contained setting of small-town life, family tensions, and the secrets held between neighbors, 1899 will feature a wide-ranging group of international travelers fighting for their lives on the open sea.

What type of story will 1899 be telling?
One that spans genres. Though specific details of its plot are being kept tightly under wraps, the story is expected to incorporate elements of War (120), Adventure (120), Sci-Fi (118), History (118), Horror (117), and Mystery (115). This convergence of styles and influences will help broaden the show’s scope and make it feel more compellingly epic.

What will compel viewers to tune in?
A story of heart-pounding peril. The Survival Skills (160) that the ship’s passengers will be forced to rely on once it becomes clear that their Lives are in Danger (137) are the top ratings drivers for 1899 and promise viewers an engrossing life-or-death struggle. The Action & Violence (133) accompanying their fight as well as the spooky Mysterious Event (131) that set the other ship adrift will add stakes and tension. At the same time, the broader Outdoor Adventure represented by their seafaring voyage will be the top contributor to both a second-season renewal (160) and online social buzz (151).

What will be the impact of the series’ continent-spanning cast?
Increased bingeability. The show boasts a truly international roster, with actors portraying characters from across the European continent and all speaking their own native tongues. This stand-out, multilingual sense of Cultural Diversity (145) will help generate a variety of conflicts within the story and is the #1 driver for keeping viewers glued to their seats.

Last year, Netflix nabbed the franchise rights to director Rian Johnson’s smash-hit Knives Out in what was rumored to be the most expensive film purchase in history. Now, eighteen months later, the first fruit of this deal just premiered at TIFF to great acclaim and will be rolling out to consumers later this year, with a limited theatrical release followed by a big streaming premiere.

Netflix’s new murder-mystery franchise dovetails with the recent resurgence of the big-budget whodunit, as viewers are once again leaning into the twists, turns, and fake-outs of this classic genre. In the upcoming Knives Out sequel, Daniel Craig reprises his role as the genteel Detective Benoit Blanc but is surrounded by an all-new starry ensemble cast as he tackles a murder on the private Greek island of a tech billionaire. Here’s what you need to know about Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery:

Who will be pressing ‘play’ on Glass Onion?
The streaming audience–where the movie will see most of its viewership–is predicted to lean female (55%) and skew heavily older (69% aged 35+). The theatrical release, though limited in scope, will likely pull in a more balanced crowd, with an even gender split (51% female / 49% male) and a greater number of younger viewers (41% under 30 / 59% 30+). These big-screen demos suggest a bit more male interest than was seen for the original Knives Out (54% female / 46% male) and the recent Death on the Nile (58% female / 42% male).

How does Glass Onion deliver on what viewers loved about Knives Out?
Humor, money, and drama. Just as Knives Out benefitted from its thrilling Family Relationships (157), Glass Onion’s SVOD ratings will be heavily driven by the juicy Group Dynamics (160) that arise among its collection of deliciously quirky, eccentric personalities. The pitch-black Dark Humor (122) that scored a (128) in the original film is similarly threaded through its sequel, and this biting tone is a major component of Glass Onion’s freshness score. Finally, just as the Generational Wealth (128) heightened the stakes for Knives Out, the Lap of Luxury (131) will delight viewers in the sequel.

What differentiates Glass Onion from Knives Out?
An action packed fight to stay alive. While Knives Out played on the slow-burn of a murder being solved, Glass Onion forces its players into a shocking and violent Game of Survival (160). Audiences will relish the cracks and fissures that develop as the pressure mounts, the puzzles build, and each person faces the realization that they themselves could become the killer’s next victim.

What will be the impact of the movie’s A-list talent roster?
A greater sense of novelty. The Star-Studded Cast (160), which, in addition to Craig, includes the likes of Edward Norton, Janelle Monáe, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista, is the #1 freshness driver, meaning it will help distinguish Glass Onion from other, similar titles within the genre. This cast will also be an important draw for the film’s theatrical release (154) but will not be a top contributor to its SVOD ratings.

What about the movie’s luxe Greek island setting?
It provides a compelling backdrop for the murder. The contrast between the suspects’ Lap of Luxury (131) lifestyle–complete with private yacht, extravagant villa, and gorgeous Mediterranean scenery–and the emotional and Psychological Turmoil (124) they endure thanks to the fear and distress of finding a murderer amongst them will not only bump up ratings but also help balance the audience: women will be especially drawn to the lavish settings, while men (especially <35s) will be pulled toward the darker undercurrent running through them.