Rapid Insights: AAPI Heritage Month Focus – Asian Leads in Scripted Content

As May’s Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month draws to a close, we wanted to take a broader look at some popular scripted series that show the wide-ranging cultural experiences of Asian characters in America, including BeefNever Have I EverFresh Off the BoatThe Mindy ProjectMaster of NoneMs. Marvel, and The Chair. Two new entrants in this category are also poised to steal the spotlight and delve into similar themes: action-comedy American Born Chinese, which premiered last week on Disney+, and spy drama The Sympathizer, releasing on HBO in 2024.

Here’s what you need to know about these series:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s the typical audience for these series?
It varies. Our sampling of previous shows appeals mainly to women, from Master of None’s 58% skew to Never Have I Ever’s 72%, likely because of female protagonists and family-related themes. However, the two newest entrants switch things up with a lean toward men (56-58%) thanks to elements of action and espionage as well as male leads.

What type of approach do these shows often take?
Focusing on family. Shows featuring main characters with Asian heritage often incorporate multiple generations and lean into themes of Family Life (160)Parenting Problems (142)Family Dysfunction (136), and Family Conflict (127) to illustrate the wide range of Asian experiences and viewpoints within the US. A particularly rich topic is the clash between recent immigrants and their first- and second-generation offspring, illustrating the turmoil of finding one’s place within America while still preserving the family’s own cultural traditions.

What else do these shows have in common?
Using humor to reveal truth. Nearly all of these series lean on elements of comedy–from light sitcom-style laughs (Fresh Off the Boat’s Feel Good Humor (146)American Born Chinese’s Awkward & Funny Moments (113)) to pitch-black dark humor (The Sympathizer and Beef’s Twisted Humor (117))–to get at the heart of their protagonists’ experiences, from funny moments of culture clash to deeper feelings of alienation.

What has set the recent American Born Chinese apart?
Its wide-ranging adventure. Based on a graphic novel, the show takes a unique approach to its storytelling, adding layers of action and mysticism on top of its family-oriented tale of an Asian high schooler struggling to fit in. The boy’s World Is Turned Upside-Down (139) when a new exchange student opens his eyes to an epic battle between mythical Chinese gods (Good vs. Evil, 134); the resulting martial arts fight sequences, magical weapons, and mythological swords (Stylized Action & Violence, 128) keep audiences on the edge of their seats.

Why will viewers be tuning into The Sympathizer?
For the suspense. The series strays from the more common family-based narrative of Asian belonging and instead focuses on an individual: a North Vietnamese mole within the South Vietnam army forced to flee to the US after the Vietnam War. This captain must maintain his Secret Identity (123) and obscure his Troubled Past (112) while making his way in America and examining his conflicting loyalties (Secrets & Lies, 135): will he keep spying for the Viet Cong (Espionage, 111), or does he truly want A New Beginning (116)?

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: Extraction 2 Leans into a New Setting and a Changed Hero

After 2020’s Extraction became Netflix’s most-watched original film at the time, the streamer fast tracked the much-anticipated sequel from creators Joe and Anthony Russo, the fruits of which will be releasing next month. Like its predecessor, the second action-thriller film stars Chris Hemsworth as a black ops mercenary who specializes in rescuing kidnapped civilians from ruthlessly dangerous criminals.

Here’s what you need to know about Extraction 2:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be adding this new action-thriller to their queue?
Older men. Like the original Extraction, we’re predicting that the sequel will lean heavily male (57%) and 35+ (72%), the same demo expected to have the highest level of demand (123). That said, we’re also seeing greater interest from younger males this time around, with men 18-34 showing an increase of 13 points.

What made the original Extraction so appealing?
The rescue. Mercenary Tyler Rake’s High-Stakes Mission (125) to save a Kidnapped Child (119) offered up adrenaline-pumping stunts, car chases, gun battles, and hand-to-hand fighting (Intense Action & Violence, 113) that leaned into Rake’s special set of skills (One Man Army, 111), catnip for the action-loving male audience. At the same time, Rake putting his own life on the line for the greater good as well as twists of betrayal and tragedy helped humanize his character (Heroic Journey, 114).

What about the Extraction premise felt so fresh and new?
Its global stage and family themes. The film’s Mumbai Setting (115) and broader international feel combined with its emphasis on father-son bonds (Risking It All for Family, 123), which drew parallels between the kidnapped boy and Rake’s own lost child, were the key drivers of freshness.

What will differentiate the upcoming sequel?
A new setting and a changed hero. Extraction 2 takes place in an isolated, frozen corner in the country of Georgia (Remote Setting, 139), where Rake and his team must navigate cultural barriers (Cross-Cultural Teamwork, 142) to rescue a woman and her two children from a heavily-guarded prison. After nearly dying in Extraction, Rake must also grapple with his own demons (Back from the Dead, 121) and finally face his Tragic Past (115).

What type of viewing experience will audiences be seeking?
An intense one. Like its predecessor, Extraction 2 is more Violent (114) and Action-Packed (115) than the average thriller, and viewers can expect to be both Exhilarated (121) and Tense (118), watching on the edge of their seats.

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: Ahsoka Leans into the Strengths of Its Star Wars Heroine

Popular heroine Ahsoka Tano is about to receive her own eponymous series with the late August arrival of Disney+’s newest show in the Star Wars universe. First created for the animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars, the character made her live-action debut (as played by Rosario Dawson) in The Mandalorian and will now continue her story as a Force-wielding warrior investigating an emerging threat to the galaxy in the wake of the Empire’s defeat.

Here’s what you need to know about Asoka:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

How will the Ahsoka audience compare to D+’s other Star Wars series?
It’ll fit right in. We’re predicting that Ahsoka will lean heavily male (75%), just like The MandalorianThe Book of Boba FettObi-Wan Kenobi, and Andor before it (all 70-75%) as well as older (all landing at 66-70% aged 30+). The Star Wars IP, with its Jedi mythology and space opera elements, tends to land best with this demographic.

What type of character is Ahsoka?
The one in charge. Fierce, self-possessed, and comfortable both giving orders and leading troops into battle, Ahsoka embodies the dramatic archetypes of The Ruler (131) and The Warrior (130). She finds plenty of company alongside other iconic strong female leads, including Zoë Washburn (Firefly), Buffy Summers (Buffy the Vampire Slayer), Daenerys Targaryen (Game of Thrones), and Katniss Everdeen (The Hunger Games).

How important is the show’s lead character?
Very. Ahsoka herself has an outstanding impact on viewer demand (123), and her inherent Heroism (142) as a noble warrior bent on helping others is a top ratings driver. Her primary traits–Badass (145)Brave/Courageous (145)Daring (129), and Tough (127)–will shine through clearly as she embraces her independence and role as mentor after serving as Anakin Skywalker’s Jedi apprentice in The Clone Wars series.

Why will viewers be tuning in?
The heroine’s journey. Audiences will want to watch Ahsoka’s Dangerous Mission (146) to locate both Grand Admiral Thrawn–a cunning, treacherous enemy of the Rebel Alliance–and the missing hero Ezra Bridger, who both disappeared into the galaxy’s Unknown Regions after a decisive battle (Searching for the Truth, 144). Her Team Up (160) with several Rebel comrades and their resulting Female Friendship (156) will help her along the way. All are crucial ratings drivers.

What will keep Ahsoka viewers glued to their seats?
The Star Wars Universe (116). As with the other live-action spin-offs, the show’s Space Setting (124) and rich, Distinctly Realized World (115) offer a host of storytelling possibilities and broader franchise connections, and fans will once again want to immerse themselves in the unique Star Wars cosmos.

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Using Vault AI To Gain a Competitive Advantage During the Writers’ Strike

While the writers’ strike can halt writing and production work for some time, it also presents an opportunity to leverage AI insights to gain an edge over the competition. 

Vault AI is helping networks in three valuable ways during this time:

1) Pivoting to unscripted content
2) Deciding which new titles to green light once the strike ends
3) Identifying white space opportunities

Let’s dive into each of them and show you some examples. 

 

Pivot to Unscripted with AI Concept Testing

While networks pivot to more unscripted programming to maintain strong viewership levels, choosing the right project to pursue is critical. Ideally, projects will succeed while aligning with the core audiences and growing the brand.  

Using on-hand materials, from a sizzle to a character tape to a written description or paper presentation, Vault AI can ingest the unscripted concept and match it against its database to answer: 

• Which unscripted concepts are predicted to have the most success overall and by demographic?
• How do the concepts rank against each other?
• What key story elements will engage or hold back viewers?
• How unique is each concept vs. the current TV landscape?

 

Case Study

A broadcast network evaluated seven unscripted projects with the goal of green lighting five due to the writers’ strike.

Vault AI ranked each concept based on predicted success among:
• target Women 25-54
• the network’s viewers
• viewers of other unscripted shows on broadcast

Vault AI also unpacked each concept’s key drivers and challenges to enhance the chances of the series becoming a success.

 

Get a Head Start with AI Script Testing 

Networks that leverage Vault AI  during the writers’ strike can get more significant insights and position themselves to immediately ‘hit the ground running’ when the writers’ strike ends. 

Vault AI can ingest a script, book, or podcast and provide the deep analysis (similar to a pilot test) that helps with script selection or preparation for pilot production.

The deep analysis answers questions like:

• Is this script worth developing?
• Will this pilot hit our target demographics?
• Which storylines are strong and unique enough to keep viewers coming back?
• Which storylines are proving problematic?
• Is the main character compelling enough?
• What network is the best distribution channel?

 

Case Study

A cable network had four scripts that it commissioned before the writers’ strike and wanted to decide which one to move forward with when the strike is over. The cable network also wanted to know what changes to make to the scripts before moving on to the pilot phase. 

Vault AI ingested each script and mapped them against its robust database. For each script, a thorough analysis was provided, including target audiences, key storylines to explore, character evaluations, and metrics on the project’s probability of success and uniqueness. 

Using the insights, the network plans to move forward with one of the scripts and potentially a second.  

 

Identify White Space Opportunities with AI Landscape Studies

During uncertain times, executives look for new opportunities. Vault AI’s ability to segment genres and sub-genres by analyzing data from thousands of titles simultaneously helps development executives identify white space opportunities.  

The questions we answer the most with landscape studies are:

• Can we create new sub-genres within the genre?
• Is there a hybrid opportunity between two sub-genres?
• What are the key story drivers of each sub-genre?
• What are the critical demographic segments for each sub-genre?

 

Case Study

A network wanted to dive deeply into the world of crime programming and understand the nuances of the sub-genres within crime and what made each similar and/or different. The network also wanted to know if any opportunities existed to create a new crime sub-genre. 

Vault AI evaluated over 100 crime shows and segmented them into various sub-genres, mapping out each sub-genre’s key story elements, emotions, and demographics. By comparing the mapping of key story elements, Vault AI identified white space opportunities and sub-genres that were less saturated. 

The client is sharing these insights with its development team and production partners to inform new titles.

 

Take Advantage Today

Find out more about how Vault AI can help you gain a competitive advantage during the writers’ strike by contacting david@vault-ai.com

Rapid Insights: The Walking Dead: Dead City Powered by IP and Big Apple Setting

Though The Walking Dead vanquished its final zombie last year after eleven intense seasons, its broader shared universe lives on through numerous current spin-offs. The newest of these premieres next month on AMC and follows Maggie and Negan–two characters who survived the mothership series–on a journey through post-apocalyptic Manhattan, battling terrors both living and dead to rescue Maggie’s young son.

Here’s what you need to know about The Walking Dead: Dead City and the broader Walking Dead franchise:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

What does The Walking Dead audience look like?
The shows’ linear viewership is fairly gender-balanced (50-54% male) and heavily older (86-91% aged 35+), matching viewing trends for cable TV. In contrast, those streaming the series include more men (54-60%) and under 30s (34-44%). We’re predicting that the Dead City audience will most closely mirror that of anthology Tales of the Walking Dead, which proved more male-skewing than The Walking Dead or Fear the Walking Dead. With a score of (135), fans of HBO’s The Last of Us will likely also be on board (as well as fans of the other AMC franchise series).

What makes these shows so popular?
Their tales of survival. From The Walking Dead through the upcoming Dead City, each series has featured a World Turned Upside-Down (118) thanks to a global zombie apocalypse, and viewers have tuned in each time for the resulting Scary Situations (125), moments of Life in Danger (137) suspense, and human vs. undead Action & Violence (120). The series also all feature strangers banding together (Team-Up, 121) to share Survival Skills (135) and offer mutual protection, a triumph of the human spirit in the face of overwhelming odds. All are top ratings drivers.

How important is the franchise link to these shows’ success?
Crucial. Their shared universe–and its connection to the original Robert Kirkman comic books–is a top driver of bingeability across the board. Given that Dead City continues the narrative of characters originating in The Walking Dead, its IP Extension (160) is a particularly essential reason that viewers will want to keep watching.

What will set Dead City apart?
A more focused storyline. Whereas its predecessors have been much broader in scope and followed a host of different characters, Dead City hones in on only two and tracks their singularly Dangerous Mission (121) through downtown Manhattan (NYC Setting, 121), an urban locale new to the franchise.

What kind of emotional experience should viewers expect with Dead City?
An intense one. In keeping with its franchise brethren, the upcoming series rates as especially Bloody/Gory (131)Action-Packed (121)Violent (119)Scary (117), and Suspenseful (116), and audiences can anticipate feeling Tense (118) and Shocked (113) while watching. At the same time, we predict they’ll be more Thrilled (119) by the show than is typical for a horror title.

What can Dead City learn from its predecessors’ longevity?
Build out the interpersonal relationships. Both The Walking Dead (11 seasons) and Fear the Walking Dead (8 seasons) have succeeded for so long because of the tight-knit kinship that developed at their center. While viewers initially tune into these shows for the danger and apocalyptic setting, they stick around to watch the Family Relationships (133)Unlikely Friendships (116), and moving bonds of Protectiveness (116) that form among their core characters.

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Goes Bigger and Bolder

Early next month, Sony’s follow-up to its Oscar-winning, animated Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018) hits theaters, and viewers will once again be treated to the Spider-ventures of teen Miles Morales as he navigates life as a web-slinging superhero. In this new installment, Miles teams up with Gwen Stacy and a host of other Spider-People to save the multiverse from The Spot, a tricky supervillain primed to cause catastrophic disaster.

Here’s what you need to know about Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Is Across the Spider-Verse a kids’ movie, or will it go broader?
Definitely broader, just like its predecessor. Leveraging Vault AI’s capability of creating and analyzing custom, hyper-targeted fan segments, this animated sequel looks promising not only with fans of other animated superhero titles (The IncrediblesBig Hero 6Lego Batman, etc.) (112), but also with those who love the wider live-action MCU (111). Demand will likely be strongest among parents (132), followed by younger males <35 (110). We’re also predicting that it will outperform with Black audiences thanks to its lead.

What made the first Spider-Verse movie so compelling?
Spider-Man’s origin story. Whereas the live action Spider-Man films have focused on Peter Parker, Into the Spider-Verse introduced teen Miles Morales as the titular hero and explored what it meant for him to take up the storied mantle. Audiences leaned in to watch Miles Become Spider-Man (160) after Parker’s death and honor his legacy by Protecting New York (156) from fearsome villains.

What will set this upcoming Spider-Verse movie apart?
All the Spider-People. Bigger and broader in scope, Across the Spider-Verse leans hard into the multiverse (and the multi-Spider-Man) concept of the first film, bringing in a host of spandexed crusaders that keep their many universes running. As a result, the idea of their Superhero Team-Up (160)–and the references made to Spider-Man’s comic book origins (Comic Connections, 160)–is a bigger draw than it was for Into the Spider-Verse (141). The sequel’s Stylized Action (134)Enhanced Animation (134), and sticky new villain are also more prominent drivers this go-round.

How important is Miles’ own story in Across the Spider-Verse?
It’s supportive. While audience demand will be driven more by the web of Spider-People, Miles’ personal journey will give the film crucial emotional stakes. Viewers do want to follow the Coming of Age (125) tale begun in the first movie, and Miles’ Mentor and Protege Relationship (114) with multiverse Peter Parker, friendship with love-interest Gwen Stacy, and brave stand against the dubious head of the Spider-Society (Disagreements & Conflict, 114) are also promising elements.

How buzzy will this new movie be?
Very. We’re predicting outstanding scores for both Google search volume (126) and social buzz (121), meaning that Across the Spider-Verse will be a key topic for search activity and online chatter in the days around its release. Users will be talking about Miles’ Interdimensional Heroism (118) and the many Spider-People inhabiting the film’s multiverse.

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: Platonic Reignites Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne’s Comedic Chemistry

After their hilarious pairing in the Neighbors films, Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne have again joined forces for Apple TV+’s new limited series releasing on May 24. While the show is technically a romantic comedy, its trailer goes all-in on its riotous “com” over its “rom,” a creative choice reflected in its humor-heavy viewership drivers. The show tells the story of two estranged childhood pals who reconnect as adults and try to recapture the magic of their former friendship.

Here’s what you need to know about Platonic:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this rowdy comedy?
A broad adult audience. We’re predicting a viewership that’s gender-balanced (51% male / 49% female) and mostly older (63% aged 30+). That’s less female-skewing than Byrne’s other Apple TV+ series (dark dramedy Physical, at 59% female) but right in line with several of the streamer’s recent comedies (Loot, The Afterparty).

Why will audiences want to watch?
To see Sylvia’s life implode. When her childhood Friendship (137) with Will is rekindled, the pair regress into madcap adolescence, shaking up her “boring” Family Life (145) and causing clashes with her other friends (Friendship Conflict, 160) and husband (Family Relationships, 136). The resulting disarray is the show’s main ratings driver.

How will the comedy contribute to the show’s success?
By making it bingeworthy. The Awkward & Funny Moments (131) arising from Will’s hilariously childish antics (Arrested Development, 137) and the scenes of Over-the-Top Humor (128)–from a surprise raccoon attack, to a sudden glass door collision, to getting high on horse tranquilizers–will keep viewers engaged.

What kind of viewing experience will audiences be looking for?
An upbeat one. The show’s heavy focus on comedy will lead viewers to expect a host of positive emotions that suggest a good time, like Anticipation (151), Admiration (146), Joy (140), and Optimism (140).

Will fans of Neighbors and Neighbors 2 enjoy Platonic?
Definitely. We’re calculating an outstanding fan affinity score of (121), meaning that those who liked Rogen and Byrne’s first two collaborations are sure to love their third. These fans will be more drawn to their characters’ Midlife Crisis (121) and raucous Partying & Drug Use (121), themes also echoed in Neighbors.

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: The Idol’s Sleazy Love Story Exposes Pop Music’s Dark Side

Next month, HBO will release its much-hyped take on the LA-based pop music industry. It’s a take that leans heavily into depravity and sex as it depicts (according to the trailer) “the sleaziest love story in all of Hollywood.” The brainchild of Abel “The Weeknd” Tesfaye and directed by Sam Levinson (Euphoria), the series focuses on aspiring pop idol Jocelyn (Lily-Rose Depp) as she falls into a complex relationship with a self-help guru and cult leader (Tesfaye).

Here’s what you need to know about The Idol:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

How will its audience compare to other music industry dramas?
It’ll be more gender-balanced. In general, this genre’s built-in melodrama attracts more women (Empire, Atlanta, Daisy Jones & the Six, Nashville, Monarch, and Queens all skewed 56%-67% female). Still, with The Idol’s heavy focus on sex, nudity, and prominence of The Weeknd’s cult leader character, we predict that more men than usual will tune in (51% male / 49% female).

Why will viewers want to watch?
For the Moral Ambiguity (124)The Idol revels in the Dark Themes (116) of a dysfunctional, potentially abusive relationship between pop star and cult leader, where Sexual Promiscuity (115) leads to empowerment. Viewers will be drawn in by the twisted combination of Love (118) and Terror (116) that defines this central connection.

How important will the musical backdrop be to The Idol’s success?
Crucial. Viewers across this category are intrigued by the politics, drama, and inner workings of the Music Industry (135). The theme consistently lands as a top viewership driver for ratings, bingeability, and longevity, whether the show focuses on hip hop, country, or rock. For The Idol specifically, its critique of the pop music world is the critical factor for social buzz (135) and bingability (134).

How is The Idol’s social buzz looking?
Very promising. The show’s initial teaser drop maxed out our meter (at 160) in July 2022, with subsequent marketing efforts resulting in similar spikes in online chatter. Its buzz also received a boost (again hitting 160) in early March when Rolling Stone reported on its contentious mid-production creative overhaul, quoting a crew member in calling it “twisted torture porn”.

What will help The Idol reach a second season?
Jocelyn’s story. She’s a sympathetic Female Protagonist (130) that viewers want to root for. While her extravagantly Wealthy Lifestyle (121) provides a dose of lighter escapism, the darker elements of her toxic Romantic Relationship (142) will provide the best fodder for future episodes. In this way, The Idol fits right in among previous music biz series; rather than the trappings of the music industry itself, it’s always the characters’ relationships–from sibling rivalry to friendship conflict to parent-child dysfunction to adultery–that drive their shows’ longevity.

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: Killers of the Flower Moon Aligns with the Scorsese-DiCaprio Canon

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio are back together again, this time with the Apple and Paramount film Killer of the Flower Moon, which showed off its first trailer today at CinemaCon to much anticipation. Their sixth film – a Western period piece investigating mysterious murders – is set to premiere at the Cannes Film Festival this year before its official theatrical release in October.

Until the trailer is released publicly, it is worth examining for now how the Scorsese-Dicaprio canon might inform expectations for Killers of the Flower Moon.

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who shows up for Scorsese-Dicaprio movies?
Males, but not to the extent one might assume. Across the 5 titles (Gangs of New York (2002), The Aviator (2004), The Departed (2006), Shutter Island (2010), and The Wolf of Wall Street (2013), there is a slight male skew (55%), which increases to 62-63% male for rough and tumble crime dramas The Departed and Gangs of New York. However, the mystery thriller Shutter Island (48% male) and the biographical drama The Aviator (46% male), attract more female viewers. There is less variation by age, with 69-74% of audiences aged 30+ across all titles.

As for Killers of the Flower Moon, a Western crime drama, the audience will certainly be older and male-skewing, but Dicaprio in a crime mystery will also draw in older females.

What makes Scorsese-Dicaprio narratives so compelling?
Seeing the darker side of human nature. Themes of Corruption & Greed (116) are central to the narratives and box office success. Greed also features prominently in Killers of the Flower Moon, where Osage tribe members experience newfound wealth due to the oil on their land. DiCaprio’s protagonists often face moral or psychological challenges that test their limits. For example, The Wolf of Wall Street is an explicit portrayal of the dangers of unchecked greed, while The Aviator explores the moral dilemmas that arise from pursuing success at any cost. In The Departed, the tension between personal ambition and moral duty drives the story.

What experience do viewers get from these movies?
Increasing tension and suspense as if the walls are closing in. Criminal Investigations (115) play a central role, heightening the stakes and driving the story forward. Viewers are left waiting for the proverbial “other shoe to drop.” In both Shutter Island and The Departed, DiCaprio portrays a law enforcement officer who becomes entangled in complex situations. Notably, in Killers of the Flower Moon, DiCaprio takes on a different role as the husband of one of the Osage tribe members, rather than the FBI agent leading the murder investigation, but is entangled in the conspiracy that the FBI are investigating.

What else can viewers expect to see?
Power struggles, both violent and subtle. Sudden Violence (118) is a common element of the canon, particularly in the portrayal of the brutal lives of crime families. The unpredictable actions of organized crime in The Departed and the street warfare in Gangs of New York exemplify this. However, not all conflicts are overtly violent. The intense corporate battles in The Aviator serve as a prime example. In Killers of the Flower Moon, the power struggle will likely take the form of DiCaprio’s character facing conflicting loyalties between his Osage wife and his powerful uncle.

What is a defining quality of the characters DiCaprio has played across the canon?
The embodiment of paranoia. DiCaprio’s characters are often grappling with their identities and navigating deception (Identity and Deception, 112). Examples include infiltrating dangerous organizations in The Departed and Gangs of New York, and contending with mental instability in Shutter Island and The Aviator. These internal struggles add depth to the characters and contribute to the films’ thematic explorations.

Introducing SEGMENTS

Break free from slow and expensive oversampling 

Create hyper-targeted fan groups and analyze every audience that matters to you.

Introducing SEGMENTS, the groundbreaking new feature revolutionizing how you analyze and target your audiences.

Get rich AI-powered audience insights at your fingertips with 5 Custom Segments included as standard. Define your own or choose from our library of 500+ ready made Segments. No extra costs, no time delays.

Learn More

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Processing...
Thank you! Your subscription has been confirmed. You'll hear from us soon.
Subscribe
Sign up with your email address to receive news and updates.
ErrorHere