Author: Claire Turner

Auteur director M. Night Shyamalan’s latest thriller-with-a-twist will be releasing theatrically via Universal Pictures in early February, and its gripping set-up has already fueled considerable social buzz. In this new tale–his first R-rated film since 2008’s The Happening–a family of three on an idyllic wilderness vacation is taken hostage by four armed strangers demanding the impossible: choose a family member to sacrifice to avert an impending apocalypse. Here’s what you need to know about Knock at the Cabin:

Who will be buying tickets?
We’re predicting a theatrical audience that leans male (54%) and skews heavily older (68% aged 30+). Shyamalan’s niche is horror thrillers, but he casts a wide net when it comes to audience: his recent films Old, Glass, and Split all skew younger than Knock at the Cabin and lean more female (barring Glass, which also leans male 54%).

What type of movie should viewers expect?
A suspenseful nail-biter that makes them think. In keeping with the director’s typical oeuvre, Knock at the Cabin is a Horror (135)–Thriller (124) with elements of Sci-Fi (118) and Mystery (118), the latter teasing the audience about the true nature of the existential threat (is the apocalypse real or are the strangers crazy?). The intense Emotional Rollercoaster (114) that ensues will play into audience demand and keep viewers on the edge of their seats.

Which aspect of the film’s high concept is its biggest draw?
The mysterious Armed Strangers (140). The four crazed, desperate people who force their way into the cabin and hold the family hostage (Breaking and Entering, 116) set up the film’s sticky central conceit, and audiences already want to know more about them. Who they are, where they came from, and why they were chosen as apocalyptic messengers will determine the family’s ultimate chances of survival (Life in Danger, 117). At the same time, the Scared Daughter (125) under attack with her fathers ups the movie’s emotional stakes and provides an even greater obstacle for the strangers’ mission: would they really hurt a little girl?

What will make Knock at the Cabin stand out from previous M. Night Shyamalan movies?
The family’s Impossible Decision (136). The trio are forced to choose between saving their loved ones and saving the world, and the gut-wrenching sacrifice as well as the moral ambiguity wrapped up in their forced ultimatum is the film’s primary driver of freshness. Additionally, the Diversity (132) built into the casting–the characters represent a wide range of types and ethnicities, including the LGBTQ+ family–helps the film feel modern, a concern especially important to female viewers.

What are people talking about?
Its high concept and pedigree. The family’s impossible choice is driving many tweets and online comments in the run-up to the movie’s release, with potential viewers discussing what they themselves would do in a similar situation. Fans are also leaning into the cast (most notably Dave Bautista) and speculating about the expected twist given its M. Night Shyamalan connection. However, while the director’s brand (IP Extension, 99) helps to generate buzz, it’s the sticky plot specifics that will actually drive demand and convince theatergoers to buy tickets.

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Next month, Amazon Prime will be releasing a compelling new pitch-black comedy-thriller starring two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz. Waltz plays Regus Patoff, a creepy, diabolical consultant hired by a struggling gaming company to improve their business practices; the more Patoff becomes embedded within the company, the more power and control he gains, until the once-normal workplace becomes a truly terrifying and dangerous place. Here’s what you need to know about The Consultant:

Who will be tuning in?
A fairly balanced audience. Viewership is predicted to lean only slightly male (52% male / 48% female), with a roughly even distribution between key adult age brackets (about 30% each for 18-29, 30-44, and 45+). In contrast, similar dark comedy-thrillers Severance and Barry leaned more heavily male, while Dead to Me and The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window skewed female, and all appealed to a slightly older crowd.

What type of series is The Consultant?
A biting workplace satire. The show leverages dark, Twisted Humor (160), cruel irony, and sarcasm to comment on the often-toxic modern relationship between boss and employee, a tack that will captivate audiences and drive bingeability. At the same time, the humor is supported with elements of a psychological Thriller (114), a potentially supernatural Sci-Fi (120) Mystery (117), and just a twinge of Horror (107).

What’s the show’s biggest draw?
Its Focus on Business (144). The Consultant’s foreboding, office-centric narrative explores dysfunctional Workplace Dynamics (124) and Co-Worker Relationships (117) evolving within an extremely Difficult Workplace (149) as consultant Patoff becomes increasingly tyrannical and manipulative and gains control over the entire gaming company. Though intended as a gross exaggeration, this set-up will nevertheless prove uncomfortably familiar to many viewers, propelling both ratings and longevity.

What will keep audiences hooked?
The employees’ predicament. As his bizarre actions ramp up, Patoff falls Under increased Suspicion (140) for having a dangerous hidden agenda (was that actually a body he just convinced an underling to hide?), and the company workers face a stark Moral Dilemma (127) in choosing between their livelihoods and their integrity. Their compelling struggle will both contribute to the show’s bingeability and drive its social buzz.

What type of emotional experience will audiences find most compelling?
A hatred for Patoff. Viewer engagement will be directly tied to the levels of Disapproval (127), Anger (127), Loathing (127), and Contempt (127) inspired by the tyrannical consultant, along with a thrilling sense of Apprehension (127) surrounding his ultimate agenda.

What is Vault AI?

In 1994, director James Cameron’s movie True Lies, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jamie Lee Curtis, became the third-largest domestic title of the year; this March, nearly three decades later, that hit film will be getting the TV treatment with the release of a promising new action series on CBS. Like the film, the show is centered around skilled international spy Harry and his unsuspecting wife Helen, who believes he’s merely a boring IT salesman; after she discovers the truth, she becomes his partner in espionage as well as life, and the pair ultimately become a super-spy duo. Here’s what you need to know about True Lies:

Who will be tuning in?
Older women. The expected audience (58% female, 96% aged 35+) for this CBS thriller falls right in line with that of the network’s other case-of-the-week series (FBI, S.W.A.T., Magnum P.I., The Equalizer, NCIS, CSI: Vegas), suggesting that the Eye Network continues to play expertly to its base. These older viewers are also the most likely to remember the original True Lies movie.

What will inspire audiences to check out this new show?
Helen’s World being Turned Upside Down (133). Viewers will tune in primarily to witness the shocking revelation that will up-end her well-ordered life: that her seemingly bland, predictable husband is actually an international spy. As Helen is thrust into the Action & Violence (131) of Harry’s everyday life, she finds excitement in their adrenaline-fueled escapades and willingly puts her own Life in Danger (111) to join forces with him.

What type of emotional experience will pull in audiences?
The same sense of edge-of-your-seat danger that Helen comes to love. The Fear (115) and Apprehension (115) stirred up by Helen and Harry’s risky missions, in-the-field snap decisions, and by-the-skin-of-their-teeth breathtaking escapes, will engage viewers and help keep ratings high.

What will make this series so gripping?
Its intriguing world of spies and secrets. Harry’s globe-spanning Espionage (137), the clandestine nature of his missions, and his tantalizing Secret Life (121) will cause the True Lies show to become just as much a fan favorite as the original 1994 movie (IP Extension, 127).

What will carry this series into a second season?
The loving and funny Tasker family. Viewers will become invested in the Family Relationship (122) between Helen, Harry, and their two kids, as well as root for the spy couple in their eventual (and effective!) espionage Team Up (112). Along their journey, unexpected and funny moments of Twisted Humor (120) will keep things light and entertaining in the midst of all the action and violence, making audiences beg for more.

What is Vault AI?

With a high-concept title that it wears proudly on its sleeve, this February opener is sure to turn heads. While Cokey the title character does all the work to grab your attention, the oddball group of characters ranging from tourists to cops and criminals all have backstories that root the film in some semblance of reality. Here’s what you need to know about Cocaine Bear:

Who will show up in theaters for this horror-comedy?
Older-skewing audiences (58% 30+), with a male lean (59%). This predicted core audience demographic is attracted to key film concepts like its Dark Comedy (148), the Drug Theme (146), and Blood and Gore (123).

How does the early social chatter look?
Excited, bordering on carnivorous. Most of the chatter revolves around the film’s crazy title, and second to that, the fact that the film is inspired by true events. Cocaine Bear also has its own twitter account run by Cokey the bear himself, with pithy tweets like “Don’t coke the bear.”

What’s the film’s main attraction?
Its jumpscares. With Cokey the Ballistic Bear (129) on the loose, the film’s cops and criminals have their fingers on their triggers, while the helpless tourists can only cross their fingers and hope for the best. Life in Danger (160) is almost an understatement, with Chaotic Chase Scenes (115) and Blood and Gore (96) galore that’ll have you looking away in horror.

What makes this film stand out against others?
Its knowing humor. Inspired by True Events (111), this ludicrous story brings a moment in history to life with over-the-top antics and violence that are sure to surprise and entertain audiences. The Drug Theme (160) involving Cokey on a bender rampage matched with a delightful Dark Comedy (160) tone maxes out our freshness scale.

What genres comprise Cocaine Bear?
A broad array. The film is a combination of Thriller (115), Adventure (115), and Action (111) genres, with a palpable sense of Comedy (97) seeping in.

What is Vault AI?

This coming Sunday, Paramount+ is set to premiere Taylor Sheridan’s upcoming series 1923, the prequel series to Yellowstone and sequel to 1883. Two additional spin-offs — 6666 and 1883: The Bass Reeves Story — have also already been ordered. The franchise follows different generations of the fictional Dutton family who own the Yellowstone ranch in Montana, and in this upcoming spin-off, they’ll face challenges related to the rise of Western expansion, Prohibition, and the Great Depression. Here’s what you need to know about 1923 and the Yellowstone franchise:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

For the first time since 1993’s infamous live-action interpretation, plumber twins Mario and Luigi will be returning to the silver screen next April in Universal Pictures’ full-length CGI adventure, and the buzz is already through the roof. Audiences have taken early notice of the film’s perfectly polished animation, stellar voice cast, and nods to defining elements across the range of Mario-based video games (from Super Mario Bros. to Super Smash Bros. to Mario Kart), and they’re beyond excited to see one of their favorite childhood franchises brought to life. Here’s what you need to know about The Super Mario Bros. Movie:

Who will show up in theaters for this cartoon adventure?
We’re predicting a younger-skewing audience (57% <30) with a heavy family component (25% <18) and a slight lean towards males (53%). Demand is expected to be strong across key demos, with those under 30 falling in the “outstanding” range (138) and teen boys especially eager to buy tickets (153).

What’s the movie’s biggest draw?
Its Famous Franchise (121). The IP and its familiar characters have been beloved by Nintendo players for almost forty years, and they’re eager to see Mario and twin brother Luigi once again Saving the World (114) from arch-nemesis Bowser and his army of Koopas. Viewers want to see the transport pipes, fire flowers, power-granting suits, Rainbow Road, and other trappings of the games’ Fantasy Land (112) on the big screen as well as the dynamic Animated Action (116) of the heroes’ ongoing battle for the Mushroom Kingdom. This aspect of the film will be especially popular for younger theatergoers under 30.

What’s the impact of the increased role for Princess Peach?
A stronger appeal to older females. Whereas the original video games relegated Peach to the role of damsel in distress, the new movie places her front and center alongside Mario and Luigi in the middle of the action. Her greater agency within the fight against Bowser transforms her into the type of Strong Female Character (112) that helps draw in women 30+ (126).

Where does the movie’s funny tone fit in?
It’s a major draw for teens. The moments of Slapstick physical Comedy (112) and goofy humor, as when Mario falls off the platform and is hit in the face by a sucker fish, add to the film’s sense of unruly fun and engage younger viewers (160) much more than the cartoon action would alone.

How important is the movie’s voice cast?
Essential in driving online chatter. Twitter has been increasingly abuzz about this movie since last week’s official trailer drop, and the names of the core cast appear alongside the long-running video game characters in the list of top terms tweeted. While Chris Pratt (voicing Mario), Seth Rogan (Donkey Kong), and Anya Taylor-Joy (Princess Peach) all factor into the conversation, fans seem especially excited for Jack Black’s energetic turn as villain Bowser. Additionally, the part of the trailer in which Donkey Kong repeatedly slaps Mario has become an oft-shared viral meme.

Months in the making, this brand new three part research series analyzes all recently released and in-development movie titles to uncover the trends that you need to know. It puts you in complete control, knowing what the movie market will look like so you know what moves to make. It’s full of juicy data that’ll help you understand where content is heading and what the streamers are looking to buy.

Vault recently acquired a number of international data sets to round out our global market capabilities, and in honor of this new expansion, this week we wanted to spotlight an intriguing new Italian dramedy releasing worldwide Thursday on Amazon Prime. Arising from the streamer’s recent local production ramp-up in the country, the series revolves around a staunchly anti-Mafia Sicilian prosecutor named Nino Scotellaro who finds himself wrongfully convicted of working for the very criminal organization he despises. Here’s what you need to know about The Bad Guy: