Author: Claire Turner

True crime’s soaring popularity has influenced Peacock’s new spoof-comedy-thriller series, premiering on Thursday. Starring Kaley Cuoco and Chris Messina, the show follows a cash-strapped couple trying to profit from a local serial killer by creating an investigative podcast and accusing a neighbor as the perp.

Here’s what you need to know about Based on a True Story:

How will its viewership compare to the typical true crime audience? 
It’ll include more men. We’re predicting that Based on a True Story will lean male (56%) and older (74% aged 30+), with a sweet spot at men 45+. In contrast, murder-based true crime docs like Making a Murderer, Unsolved Mysteries, Invisible Monsters, and The Jinx–as well as the scripted dramas that often spring from them–tend to skew female. Hulu’s true crime podcast spoof Only Murders in the Building also caters mostly to women (63%). All, however, do match Based on a True Story in skewing fairly heavily to adults 30+.

Why will viewers be tuning in?
For Ava and Nathan’s Dysfunctional Relationship (114). The kooky, quirky couple at the heart of Based on a True Story (Team Up, 117) will pull in audiences eager to laugh at their Midlife Crisis (118) and resulting Life-Changing (and possibly life-ending) Decision (117) to develop a true crime podcast for instant riches.

How do Based on a True Story’s ratings drivers compare to those of true crime docs?
They’re focused on the detectives rather than the killer. Whereas Based on a True Story’s biggest draw is its bumbling citizen podcasters, true crime series often pull in audiences by revealing the deep, Dark Secrets (127) (Unsolved Mysteries), Family Dysfunction (124) (Invisible Monsters), and Hidden Truths (113) (Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel) propelling the murderers.

What will help Based on a True Story reach a second season?
Its send-up of true crime tropes. Viewers will be drawn in by the hapless Criminal Investigation (133) as a pair of incompetents attempt to solve a Murder Mystery (130) through poorly-thought-out sleuthing and deduction (Amateur Hour, 117). These drivers will provide a rich basis for future seasons of storytelling, and all are key factors for longevity.

What’s the difference between Based on a True Story and similar spoof Only Murders?
Tone. While both series’ bingeability is driven by comedy, Only Murders in the Building takes a warmer, lighter approach (Feel Good Humor, 148) as it focuses on the Unlikely Friendship (128) between its mismatched trio of aspiring true crime podcasters. Based on a True Story will instead lean into the darker Twisted Humor (151) of a suspenseful neighborhood killing spree (Murder Violence, 118) and Ava’s attempts to profit from this new ‘it’ murderer.

As May’s Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month draws to a close, we wanted to take a broader look at some popular scripted series that show the wide-ranging cultural experiences of Asian characters in America, including Beef, Never Have I Ever, Fresh Off the Boat, The Mindy Project, Master of None, Ms. Marvel, and The Chair. Two new entrants in this category are also poised to steal the spotlight and delve into similar themes: action-comedy American Born Chinese, which premiered last week on Disney+, and spy drama The Sympathizer, releasing on HBO in 2024.

Here’s what you need to know about these series:

Who’s the typical audience for these series?
It varies. Our sampling of previous shows appeals mainly to women, from Master of None’s 58% skew to Never Have I Ever’s 72%, likely because of female protagonists and family-related themes. However, the two newest entrants switch things up with a lean toward men (56-58%) thanks to elements of action and espionage as well as male leads.

What type of approach do these shows often take?
Focusing on family. Shows featuring main characters with Asian heritage often incorporate multiple generations and lean into themes of Family Life (160), Parenting Problems (142), Family Dysfunction (136), and Family Conflict (127) to illustrate the wide range of Asian experiences and viewpoints within the US. A particularly rich topic is the clash between recent immigrants and their first- and second-generation offspring, illustrating the turmoil of finding one’s place within America while still preserving the family’s own cultural traditions.

What else do these shows have in common?
Using humor to reveal truth. Nearly all of these series lean on elements of comedy–from light sitcom-style laughs (Fresh Off the Boat’s Feel Good Humor (146), American Born Chinese’s Awkward & Funny Moments (113)) to pitch-black dark humor (The Sympathizer and Beef’s Twisted Humor (117))–to get at the heart of their protagonists’ experiences, from funny moments of culture clash to deeper feelings of alienation.

What has set the recent American Born Chinese apart?
Its wide-ranging adventure. Based on a graphic novel, the show takes a unique approach to its storytelling, adding layers of action and mysticism on top of its family-oriented tale of an Asian high schooler struggling to fit in. The boy’s World Is Turned Upside-Down (139) when a new exchange student opens his eyes to an epic battle between mythical Chinese gods (Good vs. Evil, 134); the resulting martial arts fight sequences, magical weapons, and mythological swords (Stylized Action & Violence, 128) keep audiences on the edge of their seats.

Why will viewers be tuning into The Sympathizer?
For the suspense. The series strays from the more common family-based narrative of Asian belonging and instead focuses on an individual: a North Vietnamese mole within the South Vietnam army forced to flee to the US after the Vietnam War. This captain must maintain his Secret Identity (123) and obscure his Troubled Past (112) while making his way in America and examining his conflicting loyalties (Secrets & Lies, 135): will he keep spying for the Viet Cong (Espionage, 111), or does he truly want A New Beginning (116)?

After 2020’s Extraction became Netflix’s most-watched original film at the time, the streamer fast tracked the much-anticipated sequel from creators Joe and Anthony Russo, the fruits of which will be releasing next month. Like its predecessor, the second action-thriller film stars Chris Hemsworth as a black ops mercenary who specializes in rescuing kidnapped civilians from ruthlessly dangerous criminals.

Here’s what you need to know about Extraction 2:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be adding this new action-thriller to their queue?
Older men. Like the original Extraction, we’re predicting that the sequel will lean heavily male (57%) and 35+ (72%), the same demo expected to have the highest level of demand (123). That said, we’re also seeing greater interest from younger males this time around, with men 18-34 showing an increase of 13 points.

What made the original Extraction so appealing?
The rescue. Mercenary Tyler Rake’s High-Stakes Mission (125) to save a Kidnapped Child (119) offered up adrenaline-pumping stunts, car chases, gun battles, and hand-to-hand fighting (Intense Action & Violence, 113) that leaned into Rake’s special set of skills (One Man Army, 111), catnip for the action-loving male audience. At the same time, Rake putting his own life on the line for the greater good as well as twists of betrayal and tragedy helped humanize his character (Heroic Journey, 114).

What about the Extraction premise felt so fresh and new?
Its global stage and family themes. The film’s Mumbai Setting (115) and broader international feel combined with its emphasis on father-son bonds (Risking It All for Family, 123), which drew parallels between the kidnapped boy and Rake’s own lost child, were the key drivers of freshness.

What will differentiate the upcoming sequel?
A new setting and a changed hero. Extraction 2 takes place in an isolated, frozen corner in the country of Georgia (Remote Setting, 139), where Rake and his team must navigate cultural barriers (Cross-Cultural Teamwork, 142) to rescue a woman and her two children from a heavily-guarded prison. After nearly dying in Extraction, Rake must also grapple with his own demons (Back from the Dead, 121) and finally face his Tragic Past (115).

What type of viewing experience will audiences be seeking?
An intense one. Like its predecessor, Extraction 2 is more Violent (114) and Action-Packed (115) than the average thriller, and viewers can expect to be both Exhilarated (121) and Tense (118), watching on the edge of their seats.

Though The Walking Dead vanquished its final zombie last year after eleven intense seasons, its broader shared universe lives on through numerous current spin-offs. The newest of these premieres next month on AMC and follows Maggie and Negan–two characters who survived the mothership series–on a journey through post-apocalyptic Manhattan, battling terrors both living and dead to rescue Maggie’s young son.

Here’s what you need to know about The Walking Dead: Dead City and the broader Walking Dead franchise:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

What does The Walking Dead audience look like?
The shows’ linear viewership is fairly gender-balanced (50-54% male) and heavily older (86-91% aged 35+), matching viewing trends for cable TV. In contrast, those streaming the series include more men (54-60%) and under 30s (34-44%). We’re predicting that the Dead City audience will most closely mirror that of anthology Tales of the Walking Dead, which proved more male-skewing than The Walking Dead or Fear the Walking Dead. With a score of (135), fans of HBO’s The Last of Us will likely also be on board (as well as fans of the other AMC franchise series).

What makes these shows so popular?
Their tales of survival. From The Walking Dead through the upcoming Dead City, each series has featured a World Turned Upside-Down (118) thanks to a global zombie apocalypse, and viewers have tuned in each time for the resulting Scary Situations (125), moments of Life in Danger (137) suspense, and human vs. undead Action & Violence (120). The series also all feature strangers banding together (Team-Up, 121) to share Survival Skills (135) and offer mutual protection, a triumph of the human spirit in the face of overwhelming odds. All are top ratings drivers.

How important is the franchise link to these shows’ success?
Crucial. Their shared universe–and its connection to the original Robert Kirkman comic books–is a top driver of bingeability across the board. Given that Dead City continues the narrative of characters originating in The Walking Dead, its IP Extension (160) is a particularly essential reason that viewers will want to keep watching.

What will set Dead City apart?
A more focused storyline. Whereas its predecessors have been much broader in scope and followed a host of different characters, Dead City hones in on only two and tracks their singularly Dangerous Mission (121) through downtown Manhattan (NYC Setting, 121), an urban locale new to the franchise.

What kind of emotional experience should viewers expect with Dead City?
An intense one. In keeping with its franchise brethren, the upcoming series rates as especially Bloody/Gory (131), Action-Packed (121), Violent (119), Scary (117), and Suspenseful (116), and audiences can anticipate feeling Tense (118) and Shocked (113) while watching. At the same time, we predict they’ll be more Thrilled (119) by the show than is typical for a horror title.

What can Dead City learn from its predecessors’ longevity?
Build out the interpersonal relationships. Both The Walking Dead (11 seasons) and Fear the Walking Dead (8 seasons) have succeeded for so long because of the tight-knit kinship that developed at their center. While viewers initially tune into these shows for the danger and apocalyptic setting, they stick around to watch the Family Relationships (133), Unlikely Friendships (116), and moving bonds of Protectiveness (116) that form among their core characters.

Early next month, Sony’s follow-up to its Oscar-winning, animated Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018) hits theaters, and viewers will once again be treated to the Spider-ventures of teen Miles Morales as he navigates life as a web-slinging superhero. In this new installment, Miles teams up with Gwen Stacy and a host of other Spider-People to save the multiverse from The Spot, a tricky supervillain primed to cause catastrophic disaster.

Here’s what you need to know about Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse:

Is Across the Spider-Verse a kids’ movie, or will it go broader?
Definitely broader, just like its predecessor. Leveraging Vault AI’s capability of creating and analyzing custom, hyper-targeted fan segments, this animated sequel looks promising not only with fans of other animated superhero titles (The Incredibles, Big Hero 6, Lego Batman, etc.) (112), but also with those who love the wider live-action MCU (111). Demand will likely be strongest among parents (132), followed by younger males <35 (110). We’re also predicting that it will outperform with Black audiences thanks to its lead.

What made the first Spider-Verse movie so compelling?
Spider-Man’s origin story. Whereas the live action Spider-Man films have focused on Peter Parker, Into the Spider-Verse introduced teen Miles Morales as the titular hero and explored what it meant for him to take up the storied mantle. Audiences leaned in to watch Miles Become Spider-Man (160) after Parker’s death and honor his legacy by Protecting New York (156) from fearsome villains.

What will set this upcoming Spider-Verse movie apart?
All the Spider-People. Bigger and broader in scope, Across the Spider-Verse leans hard into the multiverse (and the multi-Spider-Man) concept of the first film, bringing in a host of spandexed crusaders that keep their many universes running. As a result, the idea of their Superhero Team-Up (160)–and the references made to Spider-Man’s comic book origins (Comic Connections, 160)–is a bigger draw than it was for Into the Spider-Verse (141). The sequel’s Stylized Action (134), Enhanced Animation (134), and sticky new villain are also more prominent drivers this go-round.

How important is Miles’ own story in Across the Spider-Verse?
It’s supportive. While audience demand will be driven more by the web of Spider-People, Miles’ personal journey will give the film crucial emotional stakes. Viewers do want to follow the Coming of Age (125) tale begun in the first movie, and Miles’ Mentor and Protege Relationship (114) with multiverse Peter Parker, friendship with love-interest Gwen Stacy, and brave stand against the dubious head of the Spider-Society (Disagreements & Conflict, 114) are also promising elements.

How buzzy will this new movie be?
Very. We’re predicting outstanding scores for both Google search volume (126) and social buzz (121), meaning that Across the Spider-Verse will be a key topic for search activity and online chatter in the days around its release. Users will be talking about Miles’ Interdimensional Heroism (118) and the many Spider-People inhabiting the film’s multiverse.

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio are back together again, this time with the Apple and Paramount film Killer of the Flower Moon, which showed off its first trailer today at CinemaCon to much anticipation. Their sixth film – a Western period piece investigating mysterious murders – is set to premiere at the Cannes Film Festival this year before its official theatrical release in October.

Until the trailer is released publicly, it is worth examining for now how the Scorsese-Dicaprio canon might inform expectations for Killers of the Flower Moon.

Who shows up for Scorsese-Dicaprio movies?
Males, but not to the extent one might assume. Across the 5 titles (Gangs of New York (2002), The Aviator (2004), The Departed (2006), Shutter Island (2010), and The Wolf of Wall Street (2013), there is a slight male skew (55%), which increases to 62-63% male for rough and tumble crime dramas The Departed and Gangs of New York. However, the mystery thriller Shutter Island (48% male) and the biographical drama The Aviator (46% male), attract more female viewers. There is less variation by age, with 69-74% of audiences aged 30+ across all titles.

As for Killers of the Flower Moon, a Western crime drama, the audience will certainly be older and male-skewing, but Dicaprio in a crime mystery will also draw in older females.

What makes Scorsese-Dicaprio narratives so compelling?
Seeing the darker side of human nature. Themes of Corruption & Greed (116) are central to the narratives and box office success. Greed also features prominently in Killers of the Flower Moon, where Osage tribe members experience newfound wealth due to the oil on their land. DiCaprio’s protagonists often face moral or psychological challenges that test their limits. For example, The Wolf of Wall Street is an explicit portrayal of the dangers of unchecked greed, while The Aviator explores the moral dilemmas that arise from pursuing success at any cost. In The Departed, the tension between personal ambition and moral duty drives the story.

What experience do viewers get from these movies?
Increasing tension and suspense as if the walls are closing in. Criminal Investigations (115) play a central role, heightening the stakes and driving the story forward. Viewers are left waiting for the proverbial “other shoe to drop.” In both Shutter Island and The Departed, DiCaprio portrays a law enforcement officer who becomes entangled in complex situations. Notably, in Killers of the Flower Moon, DiCaprio takes on a different role as the husband of one of the Osage tribe members, rather than the FBI agent leading the murder investigation, but is entangled in the conspiracy that the FBI are investigating.

What else can viewers expect to see?
Power struggles, both violent and subtle. Sudden Violence (118) is a common element of the canon, particularly in the portrayal of the brutal lives of crime families. The unpredictable actions of organized crime in The Departed and the street warfare in Gangs of New York exemplify this. However, not all conflicts are overtly violent. The intense corporate battles in The Aviator serve as a prime example. In Killers of the Flower Moon, the power struggle will likely take the form of DiCaprio’s character facing conflicting loyalties between his Osage wife and his powerful uncle.

What is a defining quality of the characters DiCaprio has played across the canon?
The embodiment of paranoia. DiCaprio’s characters are often grappling with their identities and navigating deception (Identity and Deception, 112). Examples include infiltrating dangerous organizations in The Departed and Gangs of New York, and contending with mental instability in Shutter Island and The Aviator. These internal struggles add depth to the characters and contribute to the films’ thematic explorations.