November 2022

Rapid Insights: Three Pines, Many Murders

Posted on November 30, 2022November 30, 2022 by Claire Turner

Author Louise Penny’s bestselling series of crime novels is making the jump to streaming this week with a brand new adaptation on Amazon Prime. Named for the fictitious French Canadian village where all the action takes place, the show stars Alfred Molina as Chief Inspector Armand Gamache, a beloved detective investigating a series of murders who, along the way, digs up the town’s long-buried secrets and discovers his own hidden ghosts. Here’s what you need to know about Three Pines:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:
≤79 Disappointing 80-89 Challenging 90-109 Average 110-119 Promising 120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in this Friday?

We’re predicting a streaming audience that’s mostly female (63%) and heavily older (72% aged 30+)–a new viewership segment compared to Amazon’s other recent crime dramas, which all lean male thanks to their much grittier feel (Bosch: Legacy, Reacher, Too Old to Die Young).

Which aspect of the story will best draw in viewers?

The terror of a vanished child. The show’s longer-term arc–which does not appear in the original novels–traces the emotional toll of A Missing Loved One (160) and the strength of a Mother-Child Relationship (132) put to the test after the daughter of a local woman disappears. This storyline will help shine a spotlight on the horrifying epidemic of missing and murdered indigenous women throughout North America and authorities’ often reprehensible failure to thoroughly investigate or take action.

What will help propel the show into its already-ordered second season?

The episodic Murder Mysteries (127). As the death rate in Three Pines grows, Chief Inspector Gamache must go about Solving each Murder (132), Searching for the Truth (114), sifting for clues, and uncovering forensic evidence (CSI, 111) to finally unravel the multiple cases of whodunnit. Viewers will be eager to see each new investigation, and the evergreen list of small-town suspects with a murderous grudge will provide plenty of story engine for future seasons.

What’s the impact of the small-town setting?

Increased bingeability. Having all the murders take place within the insular village of Three Pines sets up a limited pool of suspects and makes each case more absorbing, allowing the townfolk’s Troubled Pasts (132) and varying levels of Emotional Turmoil (131) to bubble to the surface. The Seasonal Setting (129) (the harsh Canadian winter) adds another layer of challenges for the Chief Inspector, increasing the village’s feel of isolation and threatening to bury everything under the snow.

Which aspect of the show will viewers be talking about?

The suspense. Chief Inspector Gamache and the inhabitants of Three Pines all have various skeletons hidden in their closets just waiting to come to light, and with at least one killer on the loose, anyone in the small village could become the next victim. These Secrets & Lies (122) and the general sense of Life in Danger (120) are the show’s top drivers for social buzz.

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*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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Rapid Insights: The Last of Us Series Leverages the Emotional Storytelling that Made the Video Game So Popular

Posted on November 23, 2022 by Claire Turner

In mid-January, HBO will be premiering a big-budget new action-drama series–said to be the biggest TV production ever filmed in Canada–based on the 2013 PlayStation video game of the same name. The show stars a pair of Game of Thrones alums as Joel (Pedro Pascal) and Ellie (Bella Ramsey), a mismatched duo thrown together by circumstance who must survive brutal conditions, ruthless killers, and infectious zombies on a trek across post-pandemic America. Here’s what you need to know about The Last of Us:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:
≤79 Disappointing 80-89 Challenging 90-109 Average 110-119 Promising 120+ Outstanding

Who’ll be tuning in to watch this show?
Older men. We’re predicting a male-skewing audience (56-59%) leaning 30+, with the HBO linear broadcast bringing in even more mature viewers (89% aged 35+) than HBOMax streaming (61% aged 30+). These demos are nearly identical to those for fellow HBO hit House of the Dragon, likely because of the shared violence and dark sci-fi. In contrast, the action-focused, video game-based Halo series leans much more male (68%), while the more relationship-driven Walking Dead zombie franchise is roughly gender-balanced (51% male).

What does the online chatter look like?
Eager. Thanks to the game’s popularity (IP Extension, 120), there’s lots of fan anticipation for this show; every time a new piece of information drops, there’s a big spike in social activity, peaking with the release of the full-length teaser trailer last September (which maxed out our buzz meter at 160).

What kind of story will The Last of Us be telling?
A hard-core one. The show will fuse together elements of multiple intense, heart-pounding genres, including Sci-Fi (132), War (125), Adventure (124), Action (121), and Horror (118), and the story will traffic in Terror (116) and Fear (111) as Joel and Ellie fight to stay alive in a dangerous hellscape.

What will be the show’s big draw?
Its post-apocalyptic environment. This Distinctly Realized World (132) full of cannibalistic Zombies (129), a widespread, deadly strain of the mutated Cordyceps fungus, and hostile human survivors more inclined to kill than cooperate (Life in Danger, 133) will put Joel and Ellie’s Survival Skills (122) to the test and keep viewers glued to their seats.

What will help The Last of Us secure a second season?
Joel and Ellie’s close relationship. While the dangers they face will be the show’s initial draw, the series’ ultimate longevity is largely dependent on their evolving Partnership (132) and Camaraderie (121), with father-figure Joel’s Protectiveness (130) over teen Ellie serving as its heart. Their drive to establish meaningful Social Contact (121) and a makeshift Family (121) will keep viewers coming back.

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Rapid Insights: National Treasure Adds a New, Younger Twist to the American History-Based Franchise

Posted on November 16, 2022 by Claire Turner

Next month, Disney+ will release a series-length continuation of National Treasure, a wildly successful action-adventure film franchise from the mid-2000s. The new show will honor what came before–including with familiar faces, as actors Justin Bartha and Harvey Keitel will reprise their original supporting roles–while still adding a fresh twist by focusing on a younger, more diverse group of treasure hunters led by Jess, a twenty-year-old Dreamer trying to solve a deep family mystery. Vault predicts this new series will reinvigorate the franchise, striking ratings gold with audiences. Here’s what you need to know about National Treasure: Edge of History:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:
≤79 Disappointing 80-89 Challenging 90-109 Average 110-119 Promising 120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for the show’s premiere?
We’re predicting an audience that will lean female (54%) and be heavily older (67% aged 30+), the latter potentially thanks to the popularity of its name-brand IP Extension (144) with older Millennials, who would’ve seen the original Nicolas Cage movies as teens.

How important is the core National Treasure brand?
Essential. The essence of the first two films is baked right into the DNA of this spin-off, with the plot again centered around a Dangerous Mission (160) to solve a series of hidden clues leading to a missing treasure, all while Emotions are Running High (160) against a backdrop of adrenaline-filled chase sequences (Action & Violence, 160). This epic, race-against-time scavenger hunt, with our heroes pitted against a nefarious antagonist (this time played by Catherine Zeta-Jones), is a foundational ratings driver. At the same time, other elements unique to the franchise–its links to hidden facets of American History (152) and its incorporation of Myth & Fantasy (121) in the form of fantastical rare and ancient relics–will make the show bingeworthy.

What will be the impact of the show’s younger cast?
Increased ratings. While the original National Treasure movies focused on a pair of more fully-fledged professional heroes (played by Nicolas Cage and Diane Kruger), Edge of History has chosen to age down its lead characters and make the show more family-friendly and diverse. Consequently, Jess, the young Strong Female Protagonist (160) at the story’s core, and the Teen Friendships (160) she maintains with her treasure hunting comrades, will be a crucial part of why Disney+ subscribers will check out the series.

What will keep viewers coming back?
Jess’s family mystery. It will help propel Edge of History into a second season. This extended arc, with Jess doggedly Searching for the Truth (125) about her Family’s Secret (134) past–everything she knows about her parents is a riddle solvable only by finding the historical treasure–will provide the long-term emotional stakes and story engine needed to drive longevity.

What type of viewing experience will hook viewers?
A balanced one. Streaming audiences will be lured in by the tension and suspense (Terror, 144; Fear 138) that swirl around the show’s high-stakes treasure hunt adventure, but it’s the more positive emotions like Optimism (123), Joy (123), and Love (123) arising from the young team’s deep, mutually-supportive friendships that will keep them watching.

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Rapid Insights: M3GAN’s AI-Gone-Wrong Story Will Scare Up Audiences

Posted on November 11, 2022 by Claire Turner

Though Universal’s upcoming new Blumhouse horror film doesn’t open until January, its recently released trailer has exploded into the cultural zeitgeist thanks to its titular creepy doll’s surprising and unexpectedly hip gyrations. The movie has become a viral meme on social media, with users scoring the doll’s killer dance moves to various pop songs and pushing it into the sweet spot between impressive robotics and uncanny valley. Fitting naturally into this theme is the film’s storyline, which focuses on the unsettling, life-size, humanoid doll with advanced AI whose prime directive–to keep a little girl from feeling lonely–turns deadly. Here’s what you need to know about M3GAN:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:
≤79 Disappointing 80-89 Challenging 90-109 Average 110-119 Promising 120+ Outstanding

Who will be buying tickets to M3GAN next January?
We’re predicting an even gender split (50% male / 50% female) and a slightly older audience skew (53% aged 30+), likely due to the movie’s dual prevailing genres. The film registers not only as Horror (133)–attracting the stereotypically female genre fanbase–but also as Sci-Fi (130) thanks to its doll-shaped robotic AI, which typically appeals more to older men.

What’s the film’s main attraction?
The killer toy at its center. The titular Evil Doll (160) and the idea of AI Gone Wrong (137) are by far the top drivers of demand, with viewers eager to see the mesmerizing, newly self-aware M3GAN cut loose, cut a rug, and cut anyone who approaches her little girl into bloody pieces. The presence of an evil, humanlike-but-not-human entity is paramount in this subgenre, with the same driver also rising to the fore in the recent Child’s Play (2019) (Evil Doll, 160) and Annabelle Comes Home (Evil Doll, 139). Thanks especially to the murderous violence wrought by M3GAN, this core aspect will be the #1 motivation for men of all ages to hit the theater.

What will differentiate M3GAN from other creepy doll movies?
The emotional family backstory. Doll M3GAN is originally born of love and Family Grief (129), created by a brilliant roboticist to serve as a protector and companion for her newly-orphaned ten-year-old niece Cady. The poignant relationship between aunt and niece and their shared sense of mourning not only defines the film’s freshness score, adding a deeper well of emotion that will set M3GAN apart from more straightforwardly horror titles, but will also act as the main viewership driver for women, especially those 30+. Younger women are also strongly drawn to the primarily Female Cast (105 total, 156 for women <30) featured in this storyline.

How have all the memes impacted social buzz?
They’ve helped sustain interest. M3GAN saw a big spike in online search with the trailer drop, and, though the volume has leveled off a bit, a steady stream of tweets and other social media chatter has since focused on the hilarity of her smooth dancing moves (“lmaooooo” is a commonly associated tag). Invested fans have even established an online rivalry between M3GAN, possessed doll Annabelle (of The Conjuring franchise), and knife-wielding Chucky (from Child’s Play).

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Rapid Insights: Willow Will Combine Magic, Adventure, and Friendship in an Epic Emotional Journey

Posted on November 9, 2022 by Claire Turner

Later this month, Disney+ will release a long-awaited, series-length sequel to its 1988 cult classic hit Willow, and fans of the original film could not be more excited–especially as lead Warwick Davis will be reprising his role as the titular magician. This epic fantasy adventure series will pick up the story many years after the saga’s first installment, dropping back in on the protagonist–now older, wiser, and a fully-fledged sorcerer–as he leads an unlikely group of heroes on a dangerous quest to rescue a prince. Here’s what you need to know about Willow:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:
≤79 Disappointing 80-89 Challenging 90-109 Average 110-119 Promising 120+ Outstanding

How will Willow fit in among other recent fantasy series?
It will land younger and be a bit more gender-balanced. Where other recent successes in the medieval epic realm, such as Lord of the Rings, House of the Dragon, and The Witcher, have leaned into the stereotypical fantasy fanbase of older men (54-56% male / 63-64% aged 30+), Willow is predicted to lure in a few more women and play less heavily to the older crowd (52% male / 57% aged 30+).

What kind of viewing experience will best draw in audiences?
An emotional one. Willow scores very highly across a wide range of sentiments, including Joy (138), Anticipation (138), Sadness (138), Love (133), Disapproval (133), and Grief (123), and all are key components of the show’s expected ratings. This wide-ranging tonal approach will take viewers on a deeply moving journey of highs and lows right alongside the main characters.

What’s the most compelling aspect of the plot?
A Dangerous Mission (160) set in an enchanted kingdom. Story-wise, audiences will primarily tune in to see the show’s perilous central quest, undertaken by a motley group of underdogs and unlikely heroes. The Bravery (140) and courage they must demonstrate as they engage in the epic Good vs. Evil (137) battle that’s a hallmark of the genre—in this case, with evil represented by a wicked queen and her supporting forces of darkness—and the surrounding backdrop of Myth & Fantasy (133) and mystical creatures will together prove to be a powerful draw.

What about this unlikely group of heroes?
They’ll help push the show into a second season. Longevity for Willow will primarily be driven by the Friendship (127) and Team-Up (114) of its six central characters, especially between the titular Nelwyn sorcerer and newcomer princess Kit, as well as their collectively potent desires for interpersonal relationships, Romance (127), Social Contact (124), and Family (115).

How important is the original Willow movie to the success of its follow-up series?Very. The 1988 film is a well-loved cult classic, and this original IP Extension (124) – ranked as Outstanding just behind the top 5 ratings drivers – will drive up ratings for the follow-up series significantly. The same goes for Willow’s comps that also have baked-in IP Extensions (The Lord of the Rings, 113; House of the Dragon, 114) as well as comps that are Based on a familiar Book (The Witcher, 114, The Wheel of Time, 117). Bringing this beloved film back to life will have nostalgic viewers on the edge of their seats, popcorn in hand.

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Rapid Insights: Tulsa King Kills with a Fish-Out-of-Water Mafioso

Posted on November 2, 2022 by Claire Turner

With its gritty new western-set crime drama, Paramount+ continues its fruitful partnership with mega-creator Taylor Sheridan (Yellowstone, 1883, Mayor of Kingstown) and lays the groundwork for another buzzworthy success. The series stars Sylvester Stallone–making his streaming TV debut–as a once-powerful New York Mafioso just released from prison who is sent to Oklahoma by his superiors to establish a new criminal operation. Here’s what you need to know about Tulsa King:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:
≤79 Disappointing 80-89 Challenging 90-109 Average 110-119 Promising 120+ Outstanding

How will Tulsa King’s audience compare to those of Taylor Sheridan’s other series?
It’ll be more male. More than three in five (61%) Tulsa viewers are expected to be men, a slightly higher proportion than seen for the SVOD-only 1883 (59%) and Mayor of Kingstown (58%) and much higher than both audience segments for Yellowstone (50% male on linear, 55% on streaming). All of these titles do, however, line up in terms of their age bracket: they skew heavily to those aged 30+ (66-71%) thanks to their older casts and themes.

What type of story will Tulsa King be telling?
One that blends the best of many worlds. The show combines elements across multiple genres, including Crime (132), Western (131), Action (113), Thriller (112), and Drama (111), all enlivened by interjections of witty humor, to tell the story of Stallone’s Dwight “The General” Manfredi and his struggles in Tulsa. Although the series is not a traditional western–no cowboy hats, spurs, or horses here–it touches on enough thematic fundamentals (power struggles, a fish out of water, a macho antihero) to rate nearly as high in the genre as Yellowstone (133).

What will drive the show’s story engine?
The idea of starting over, however reluctantly. The first season details Manfredi’s dubious New Beginning (153)in Oklahoma, accepted unwillingly after two and a half decades in prison, and his resulting Fish Out of Water (160)status as a born-and-bred New Yorker stuck in what he perceives as a backwater town. This aspect of the series provides ample fodder for both drama and comedy and is its top viewership driver.

How do its action-packed sequences fit in?
They help draw in viewers and keep them watching. Manfredi enters a very High Stakes (125) game of vicious Power Struggles (146) for local dominance that often put his Life in Danger (120), and the resulting fight scenes, car chases, gun battles, explosions, and other elements of Action & Violence (122)amp up the adrenaline, keep the story moving, and contribute to both ratings and bingeability.

What will propel Tulsa King into a second season?
Its focus on (dis)organized crime. The show offers a gripping look at the Mafia Subculture Up Close (120) and, through Manfredi’s dealings in Tulsa, delves into the world of arms dealing and other illegal activities as he and his newly-installed Criminal Organization (132) (including a few ragtag, unprepared locals) pursue a business of Committing Crimes (122).

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