Month: September 2023

As we await the Television Academy’s 2023 Emmy Awards celebration–postponed to January this year–we’re continuing our in-depth series focused on the nominees, which takes a closer look at the high-quality shows representing the best of this past year’s TV.

Next up: the category of Outstanding Comedy Series, featuring 5 returning favorites from 2022 plus 3 brand new entrants: ABC’s Abbott Elementary, HBO’s Barry, FX’s The Bear, Amazon Freevee’s Jury Duty, Amazon Prime’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, Apple TV+’s Ted Lasso, and Netflix’s Wednesday.

Here’s what you need to know about this year’s Comedy race:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Do these comedy standouts appeal to a common audience? 
Not at all. Though all represent variations of the same genre, these shows reach very different sets of viewers. Some are heavily female (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, 68%; Only Murders in the Building, 63%), while others are mostly male (Jury Duty, 60%; Barry 57%). Those airing on linear TV skew much older (Abbott Elementary, 87% aged 35+; Barry, 90% aged 35+), while those on streaming are more tempered (The Bear, 62% aged 30+; Jury Duty, 64% aged 30+), and one even leans younger (Wednesday, 53% aged <30).

How important is humor as a ratings driver?
Extremely. For seven of these eight nominees, their jokes, set-ups, and schtick have become hallmarks of their success and are a key reason that so many viewers have been tuning in: the Awkward & Funny Moments (147) and Parody (115) of Abbott Elementary; the Twisted Humor of Barry (124) and Wednesday (135); the Cringe Comedy (160) of Jury Duty; the Feel-Good Humor of Only Murders (148) and Ted Lasso (119); and the sharp stand-up performances (A Subculture Up Close, 160) built into Mrs. Maisel. The lone exception is The Bear, whose appeal rests squarely on its more dramatic aspects.

How have these series distinguished themselves as comedies?
By layering in additional genres. While Abbott Elementary is more of a traditional sitcom, the other entrants in this field may be more accurately described as comedy hybrids, injecting aspects of the Crime (125, Barry), Mystery (134, Only Murders), Sport (137, Ted Lasso), Horror (126, Wednesday), and even Reality (121, The Bear) genres to heighten their impact and make their storytelling even more unique.

What else do these shows have in common?
Unexpected relationships. This particular list of comedies tends to feature mismatched pairs and groupings and mine their differences for humor, from the crime-solving intergenerational trio in Only Murders (Team Up, 142), to the ‘odd couple’ comic and manager in Mrs. Maisel (Female Friendship, 160), to the hitman-turned actor and his struggling classmates in Barry (Unlikely Friendship, 120), to the eclectic group of teachers in Abbott Elementary (Workplace Dynamics, 140). These unusual kinships are top viewership drivers across this year’s comedy nominees.

Do viewers talk about these shows online?
Oh yeah. Every one of these eight nominees has maxed out our social buzz meter (to 160) at some point during their latest season release, with some sustaining this high level of chatter for a month or longer (Only Murders, Ted Lasso, The Bear, Wednesday). They also see spikes around renewal announcements and new trailer drops.

 

On August 31, Netflix released its new live-action adaptation of a beloved classic manga and anime franchise and the show was an undeniable hit, ranking #1 in viewership in 84 countries over its first weekend. Already renewed for a second season, the series follows the fantastical misadventures of an eclectic pirate crew as they scour land and sea to find a fabled lost treasure.

Here’s what you need to know about One Piece:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s been watching this wildly successful adaptation?
Males. The One Piece audience is heavily male (69%) and mostly older (63% aged 30+), a near exact match for fellow Netflix live-action anime adaptation Cowboy Bebop. Both have run quite a bit older than the streaming audience for animated anime series like Dragon Ball Super (only 43% aged 30+) and Attack on Titan (only 36%).

Why are so many people tuning in for One Piece?
Its imaginative world and memorably motley crew. The show highlights the hard-won Camaraderie (142) that forms after a band of wacky misfits Team Up (142) under the Leadership (134) of novice captain Monkey D. Luffy to become the swashbuckling Straw Hat Pirates. Viewers are rooting for these underdogs to pull together and find the legendary missing treasure, all while navigating a world full of dangerous cutthroats (Piracy, 141), mythical monsters, and superbeings with powers like super speed and telekinetic dismemberment (Life in Danger, 134).

How is One Piece’s social buzz?
Through the roof. Matching its strong viewership, the show has seen a sustained level of online chatter that has maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) since it was released almost three weeks ago. The popularity of its source material also created considerable ingoing interest: there were big spikes in buzz for the series’ release date announcement as well as each trailer drop. Its viewers are primarily talking and tweeting about the Straw Hat Pirates’ collective treasure hunt (Teamwork, 146) and their earnest captain’s quest to win the title ‘King of the Pirates’ (Ambition & Drive, 138).

What will drive the show’s long-term story arcs?
Interpersonal dynamics. As individuals, the misfits and weirdos in the Straw Hat Pirates represent a range of talents, personalities, and backgrounds (Cultural Diversity, 122), and, deep down, they’re all searching for Family (122) and a sense of belonging. The Unlikely Friendships (120) they form with each other will set the stage for future conflicts and create an evergreen story engine for next season and beyond.

How is One Piece different from Cowboy Bebop?
It’s not quite as intense. Cowboy Bebop–Netflix’s other recent live-action anime adaptation–makes for an obvious point of comparison for One Piece, and both do feature a wacky team-up of unlikely companions (bounty hunters, in the former’s case) on a wide-ranging search for their quarry. However, Cowboy Bebop features a very different storytelling style, leaning into its futuristic Sci-Fi (135) space setting with cool Gizmos & Technology (123) and bringing in viewers with ‘shoot ’em up’ Stylized Action & Violence (116) and a clear-cut fight between the protagonists and the gun-toting villains they’re pursuing (Good vs. Evil, 118). One Piece, on the other hand, focuses on the more absurdly comical Awkward Misadventures (152) of its hapless crew, and its fight sequences take on a more surrealist bent thanks to their captain’s ability to stretch his body like rubber.

 

Amazon Prime’s wildly successful series The Boys will launch its much-awaited second spin-off (after the animated The Boys Presents: Diabolical) later this month. Set in the same Vought-controlled universe as its predecessors, Gen V will focus on the cutthroat (literally and figuratively) competition between dangerously out-of-control superheroes-in-training at the Godolkin University School of Crimefighting.

Here’s what you need to know about Gen V and the rest of The Boys franchise:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s tuning in for these satirical superheroes?
Younger men. Though we’re predicting that Gen V will be notably less male than its predecessors (61% vs The Boys’ 78% and Diabolical’s 70%), all three skew heavily towards men and somewhat to those under 30. The franchise as a whole is much more male-focused than is typical for the misfit superhero genre, including Doom Patrol (only 55% men), The Umbrella Academy (53%), Misfits (54%), and Watchmen (57%).

What’s so appealing about The Boys and its spin-offs?
They’re a clever send-up of a mega-popular genre. While these shows start with the Superpowers (130), Team-Ups (118), and Stylized Action & Violence (116) that make the Marvel and DC Universes so beloved, they take a hard right turn into the darkly comedic, layering in whip-smart Satirical Humor (128), hilariously over-the-top Bloody Violence (129), and bizarrely quirky Antiheroes (121) to smash apart the classic tropes and construct a biting Social Commentary (123).

Do they tend to attract a lot of attention?
Most definitely. The Boys regularly maxes out our social buzz meter (to 160), not only when it’s in season but also as new information is revealed, as with July’s big announcement of a Call of Duty collaboration. The spin-offs themselves don’t quite hit the same highs, but are still in the outstanding range. Diabolical spiked to (130) with its 2022 premiere. Gen V saw a bump to (123) with the release of its teaser trailer, with still plenty of time for an even bigger build-up to its premiere.

What will distinguish Gen V from the other Boys series?
A clearer-cut line between Good vs. Evil (130). While The Boys features a conflict between two teams of borderline psychopaths and Diabolical’s characters are all over the map, Gen V follows a more uncomplicatedly rootworthy (at least in the trailer) group of students who must uncover the darkly terrible things going on at their university (Searching for the Truth, 124). Additionally, Gen V boasts a central Strong Female Protagonist (122), while the main characters on The Boys are mostly, well, boys.

What will help Gen V power through to a second season?
Its take on Young Adult Life (114). While the show’s skewering of the ‘school for superheroes’ cliché will drive ratings and bingeability, it’s actually the more mundane aspects of the college experience–albeit colored by a dark and violent sci-fi twist–that will provide its story engine for future seasons. Viewers will become wrapped up in the typical student squabbles over Social Status (125), academic ranking (Competitiveness, 115), friendships, and romance. In contrast, longevity for both The Boys and Diabolical is driven by their superpowered team-ups and misadventures.

 

Two new comedies just entering the storied realm of adult animation promise to make an indelible mark on the genre. Captain Fall, recently released on Netflix, tells the story of a sweet but dimwitted sea captain unwittingly fronting a smuggling ring for a dangerous international cartel. Dan Harmon’s Krapopolis, coming later this month to Fox, focuses on an outlandish family of humans, gods, and monsters attempting to create the world’s first city in ancient Greece.

Here’s what you need to know about these new animated comedies:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

What type of audience tunes in for this genre?
It depends on the show and the platform. Family-based series (The Simpsons, Family Guy, American Dad!) tend to lean female, especially if they’re on TV, while those incorporating sci-fi, action, or crude humor (Futurama, Rick and Morty, Archer, South Park) are more likely to lean male, especially on streaming. For Krapopolis’s linear debut on Fox, we’re predicting a roughly gender-balanced audience (51% male / 49% female) that skews mostly older (81% aged 35+), in keeping with broadcast TV trends. In contrast, streaming’s Captain Fall has a heavily male (72%) viewership that’s more evenly distributed across age groups (47% <30 / 53% 30+). (We’re estimating that Krapopolis will pull in similar SVOD demos among those watching the next day on Hulu.)

Why are shows in this genre so appealing?
They wring a good time out of annoying characters. Adult animation tends to excel in poking ironic fun at buffoonish, ridiculous, and over-the-top archetypes (think Homer Simpson, Peter Griffin, BoJack Horseman, everyone on South Park), and viewers tune in for the resulting clash of emotions. While reveling in the Annoyance (122) (Disenchantment), Disapproval (139) (Krapopolis) and Contempt (138) (The Simpsons) engendered by the goofy protagonists, fans lean forward for the Surprise (121) (Family Guy), Anticipation (131) (American Dad!), and Amazement (119) (Rick and Morty) brought on by the clever humor written at their expense.

What do these two new series share with other animated comedies?
Comedy derived from flawed relationships. Successful series in this genre lean hard into irreverent and exaggerated Adult Humor, Awkward Misadventures, Over-the-Top Gags, and Parody to keep viewers giggling through a host of what are, at heart, some all-too-relatable real-world situations: Parenting Problems (122) (Family Guy), On-Again/Off-Again Relationships (130) (BoJack Horseman), Family Disagreements (134) (Rick and Morty), maladjusted Family Life (135) (American Dad!), and Dysfunctional Relationships (133) (Archer). Both Captain Fall (unhealthy Family Relationships, 145) and Krapopolis (Family Dysfunction, 160) follow the same path.

What makes Captain Fall stand out?
Thrills and danger. In addition to comedy, the series boasts elements of the Western (125), Crime (117), Adventure (117), and Action (115) genres thanks to the ruthless, trigger-happy smugglers surrounding the show’s clueless hero. The Criminal Organization (130)’s Conspiracy & Cover-Ups (132)–they’ve set the good Captain up to take the fall for their Piracy (128)–are major drivers for both bingeability and longevity.

What will lure viewers to Krapopolis?
Its ancient Greece setting. By including Greek gods and mythical creatures in its ruling class, the show delves into Fantasy (134) and Sci-Fi (125) alongside its more reality-based dysfunctional family humor. The Tough Decisions (136) they face as they attempt to build a civilization from scratch–plus their devious Scheming (160) against friends and enemies alike–will be crucial for boosting the show’s ratings.

 

On September 10, AMC will premiere the much-anticipated sixth series in its expansive Walking Dead universe; it follows Daryl–a fan-favorite character from the mothership show–as he journeys across a turbulent, zombie-ravaged France. We took a look at the drivers behind the entire Walking Dead franchise with the release of The Walking Dead: Dead City back in June; this time, we’re exploring where the newest show fits within the recent trend of sweeping, broad-in-scope post-apocalyptic dramas.

Here’s what you need to know about The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this latest Walking Dead series?
We’re predicting a cable TV audience that leans male (55%) and is heavily older (90% aged 35+), while those streaming on AMC+ will be younger (40% <30) and mostly male (69%). This viewership pattern closely mirrors fellow zombie thrillers The Walking Dead: Dead City and The Last of Us, which places these shows between post-pandemic dramas See and Station Eleven (relatively gender-balanced) and the action-heavy DMZ (heavily male).

What’s the common draw for this type of show?
Life-or-death stakes and tight-knit bonds. These dystopian dramas tend to feature a Dangerous Mission (152) (Daryl Dixon) across a treacherous landscape of Tribal Warfare (138) (DMZ) in a World Turned Upside-Down (114) (Station Eleven), with the heroes’ Lives in Danger (133) (The Last of Us) and dependent on their wits and Survival Skills (135) (Dead City); the suspense leaves viewers on the edge of their seats. At the same time, such intense circumstances lead to intense relationships, where bonds new and old (Partnerships, 132, The Last of Us; Adopted Family, 151, See; Motherhood, 113, DMZ; Unlikely Friendships, 132, Daryl Dixon) become all that truly matter.

What will set Daryl Dixon apart?
A softer touch. This series (or its trailer, at least) takes a lighter tone than most, suggesting a very different audience experience. While shows like Dead City, See, and DMZ traffic in Fear (137), Aggressiveness (116), Loathing (130), and Vigilance (111), Daryl is tinged with Optimism (115) as the titular protagonist bonds with a young boy thrust into his care. Similarly, Daryl has fewer outright Horror (113) elements than Dead City (121) or The Last of Us (118), instead playing up tropes of the Western (128) genre with a lone hero standing his ground for Honor (117).

What will differentiate Daryl Dixon from the previous Walking Dead spin-off?
A single protagonist, a clean break and a mystery. While both follow characters long familiar to fans, Dead City picks up where original series The Walking Dead left off, creating a long-anticipated Team Up (132) between a pair of compelling former enemies. In contrast, Daryl Dixon breaks away from The Walking Dead’s story entirely, thrusting its lone, hardened Tough Guy (111) lead into A New Beginning (115) on an entirely different continent. The puzzle of Daryl’s journey (Hidden Truth, 123)–he doesn’t know how he ended up in France–also adds a hook for both longevity and social buzz. Daryl Dixon’s international backdrop, however (Non-US Setting, 106) will not prove as strong of a driver as Dead City’s post-apocalyptic New York (NYC Setting, 121).