Month: July 2023

Earlier this month, the Television Academy announced its 2023 Emmy Awards nominees, so we wanted to take a closer look at the high-quality shows representing the best of this past year’s TV. First up: the category of Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, filled with five compelling miniseries that really stood out on their respective streaming platforms: Netflix’s Beef and Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, FX on Hulu’s Fleishman Is in Trouble, Prime Video’s Daisy Jones & The Six, and Disney+’s Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Here’s what you need to know about this year’s Limited Series race:

Is there a common audience for these five series?
No. While all cater primarily to older viewers aged 30+ (62-73%), their gender appeal is all over the map: two lean heavily male (Dahmer, Obi-Wan), two are mostly female (Daisy Jones, Fleishman), and one is gender-balanced (Beef).

Do these nominees take a similar approach to storytelling?
Not at all. The category this year runs the gamut, with each of the five series playing in a very different genre sandbox: Obi-Wan celebrates its tales of Sci-Fi (143) Adventure (137), Dahmer revels in its gory true-Crime (122)Biography (118), Daisy Jones leans hard into the Music (142) of its era, Fleishman delves sensitively into Romantic (115) Drama (125), and Comedy (114), Beef draws in elements of a Western (111)-style stand-off. Consequently, they draw in viewers with a variety of emotional experiences as well, from the lighter and more uplifting (Daisy’s Love (138) and Ecstasy (126); Fleishman’s Optimism (126) and Joy (124)) to the darker and more intense (Dahmer’s Loathing (145)andContempt (145); Obi-Wan’s Fear (135)and Aggressiveness (123)).

What do these shows have in common?
Family. The major theme that runs through all five series is that of kinship, whether forged by blood or choice. This set of nominees explores the Family Relationships (160) and Family Conflicts (127) that can spur a feud (Beef), the Broken Families (148) that can form the backstory of a killer (Dahmer), the Friendship Conflicts (160)that can arise from a tight knit rock band (Daisy Jones), the Parent-Child Relationships (141) that evolve out of divorce (Fleishman), and even the Human/Non-Human Relationships (124)that can become meaningful in the vast reaches of space (Obi-Wan). The series’ deep commentary on the greater human condition is what makes this group so Emmy-worthy.

What else unites them?
They build upon oft-used settings. Each of these limited series offers up a unique take on an otherwise commonly-used backdrop in fiction, from New York City (Fleishman’s NYC Setting, 144) to the music industry (Daisy Jones’s Music Industry, 120) to space (Obi-Wan’s Space Setting, 133) to the courtroom (Dahmer’s Courtroom Drama, 132). Their unique twists on these milieus are important audience draws.

Is their original source material important?
Mostly yes. The fact that Dahmer is Based on a True Story (122), Fleishman is Based on a Book (121), and Obi-Wan is built into the Star Wars Universe (140) represent key viewership drivers for each respective series. The exception is Daisy Jones, whose characters and story elements bring in viewers ahead of its connection to its original novel. (Beef is an original screenplay.)

How did the overall social buzz look for this group of nominees?
Very strong. Four of the series maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) with a sustained high level of online chatter over the course of their episodic roll-outs. (Fleishman was a bit lower profile, peaking at (128).) All five also saw a slight spike after the Emmy announcements.

Prolific writer/creator Taylor Sheridan’s relationship with Paramount+ will once again pay robust dividends with Sunday’s premiere of his newest streaming series. The show is an intense spy thriller featuring Zoe Saldaña, Nicole Kidman, and Morgan Freeman and will follow a newly recruited CIA agent as she goes undercover among Middle Eastern power brokers who sponsor anti-US terrorism.

Here’s what you need to know about Special Ops: Lioness:

How will this audience compare to Sheridan’s other streaming originals?
It’ll be slightly younger and more gender-balanced. For Lioness, we’re predicting a roughly even male-female split (52% M / 48% F) and, though still older-leaning, an age skew (at 69% aged 30+) that’s less extreme. In contrast, the creator’s other Paramount+ series have slanted more heavily male (from 1883’s 55% to Tulsa King’s 66%) and older (72-79% aged 30+).

What will set Lioness apart in the Sheridan universe?
It treads new genre ground. In his TV projects, Sheridan has tended to play in the Western sandbox, not only straightforwardly via neo-western Yellowstone (133) and spin-offs 1883 (152) and 1923 (153), but also with crime dramas Mayor of Kingstown (128) and Tulsa King (131), which ideate on key genre tropes like the lone wolf, frontier justice, and the wild west. Lioness, however, tones down the Western (115) elements in favor of heightened War (125) and Action (121) themes.

How important is it that this series is led by women?
Extremely. While Yellowstone, 1883, 1923, and Mayor of Kingstown all have ensemble casts with prominent women (Tulsa King is populated almost entirely by men), Lioness is Sheridan’s first series that puts female characters front-and-center. Consequently, their stories (Strong Female Characters, Female Professionals) are the #1 drivers for all four of our tracked metrics: ratings (160), longevity (144), bingeability (137), and social buzz (127).

Why else will viewers want to tune in?
For the intrigue and Espionage (112). Alongside its strong women, the spy thriller elements that make this show unique among Sheridan’s oeuvre will provide a compelling reason to watch. The excitement of an untested agent Working Undercover (128) to infiltrate a terrorist organization, the knife’s edge she must walk to stay undetected among her targets (Strained Relationships, 160), and the complicated inner workings of the Intelligence Agency (119) steering the ship will all have viewers on the edge of their seats.

What will Lioness have in common with Sheridan’s other shows?
Action & Violence (133). Whether set in the new (or old) west, the city of Tulsa, or the Middle East, the creator’s shows all feature dangerous confrontations, chaotic shoot-outs, violent bloodshed, and other intense moments where the protagonists find themselves in desperate peril (Life in Danger, 115). In addition, Lioness follows a Marine with a troubled past whose entry into the CIA represents A New Beginning (124), a theme shared with both 1883 and Tulsa King, two other shows whose characters needed a fresh start.

2010’s Justified will become the latest series to receive a years-later revival with next week’s release of Justified: City Primeval on FX. Such revivals traffic in nostalgia, appealing to fans by continuing a beloved story rather than rebooting it, with original cast members playing their original characters a crucial part of the deal; shows as varied as Gilmore Girls, Roseanne, Dexter, and The X-Files have previously won such a return. In this case, Timothy Olyphant will reprise his role as protagonist Raylan Givens, an ornery lawman dedicated to upholding his own Wild West-style of justice.

Here’s what you need to know about Justified: City Primeval and this continuing revival trend:

Do these revivals attract the same demos as their original series runs?
If they’re on the same networks. Revivals like Dexter: New Blood and The Conners, which remained on Showtime and ABC, respectively, hit the same demo sweet spots as their predecessors; FX’s Justified: City Primeval is expected to do the same (bringing in Justified’s roughly gender-balanced (52% female / 48% male) and heavily older (92% aged 35+) crowd). However, shows that have jumped from linear to streaming (That ‘90s Show, Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life) instead factor in the built-in audience of their new home, and series where the protagonists have matured into an entirely different phase of life (And Just Like That, iCarly) have instead seen their viewership age alongside.

Does their name recognition translate into strong social buzz?
Absolutely. Shows that earn this type of continuation are typically those with a strong fanbase, and the much-later returns of everything from The X-Files, Dexter, Veronica Mars, and Roseanne to Full House, That ‘70s Show, Gilmore Girls, and Sex and the City generated so much excitement that they maxed out our social buzz meter (hitting 160) with the premiere of their revival seasons. Justified: City Primeval hasn’t reached this high quite yet, but it’s trending upward fast (with a current peak at 129) and will likely do so next week.

Why do viewers tune into these revivals?
Nostalgia. Overall, the strongest viewership drivers for these years-later seasons are those that tap directly into their brands’ core DNA. Top ratings-getters from And Just Like That, for example, are the same themes of Female Friendship (122), Female Conflict (119), and Looking for Love (121) that were first perfected in Sex and the City. Dexter: New Blood audiences wanted to see a new iteration of the same dysfunctional Father-Child Relationship (129) (as well as Dexter’s familiar Voice-Over Narration (132)), Fuller House fans appreciated new versions of the Supportive Relationships (160), Sibling Dynamics (147), and Single Parent (129) household found in their 90’s fave, and those watching the now-adult Punky Brewster tuned in for the same Adopted Family (144) concept found in the original.

Are viewers put off by the updates made to these later seasons?
Generally not. In a bid to both refresh their concepts and acknowledge how much time has passed, these revivals tend to drop their protagonists into new and often more modern situations, and such change-ups can also create enticing reasons to watch. For example, the kids of Full House became the Divorced (126) adults of Fuller House, The Conners now incorporates strong LGBTQIA+ Themes (132) (as well as a powerful Grief-Stricken (126) throughline with the (fictional) death of their matriarch), Dexter: First Blood tackles Teen Angst (112) for the first time with the introduction of Dexter’s son, and That ‘90s Show has swapped the 70s milieu for teen life in the 1990s (160).

How does Justified: City Primeval compare to the original Justified?
It’s unusually different. Whereas most of these revivals lean on the same core tenets as their origin shows, City Primeval is a notable exception. Justified’s viewership was driven largely by its unforgettable villains and family-against-family tangle of warring factions in the backwaters of rural Kentucky, all loosely policed by Deputy US Marshal Raylan Givens (Crime Family, 128; Family Secret, 133; Family Conflict, 130). City Primeval instead jettisons this set-up entirely and transplants an older Raylan to an all-new locale to chase an all-new type of criminal, all while battling both the killer’s lawyer and his teenage daughter; because of this shift in focus, City Primeval’s ratings will depend on a different set of themes (Serial Killer, 126; Personal Backstory, 121; Parenting Problems, 120). However, the two pieces of the Justified story do have a basic throughline in common: Raylan’s ongoing desires for Vengeance, Power, and Honor, and the Action & Violence he must use to pursue them.

This August, Sony’s mega-hit PlayStation video game series comes to the big screen as a biographical coming-of-age sports drama set in the franchise’s beloved high-octane racing world. The movie tells the true story of Jann Mardenborough, a top-notch teen gamer who turned his superior virtual skills into a clinch tournament win and, ultimately, a real-life career as a professional racecar driver.

Here’s what you need to know about Gran Turismo:

Who will be buying tickets for this exciting sports drama?
Teen boys primarily. We’re predicting an audience that skews heavily male (61%)–based on the trailer, women will be a much harder-to-capture group–with the greatest demand coming from boys <18 (116). This breakdown most closely matches that of a typical action-based film rather than the average sports movie (which tends to attract a few more women).

Will Fast & Furious fans be buying tickets?
Not necessarily. While we are predicting that the Fast & Furious audience will be especially drawn to themes of Rivalry (137) and Family Bonds (132), on the whole their predicted affinity for the upcoming film is average (98).

Will the video game series be important to the movie’s success?
Absolutely. The film leans into the same adrenaline-pumping elements that have made the beloved racing games so popular: high-speed maneuvering, blow-out crashes, and thrilling near misses (Intense Racing Action, 135), all key drivers of demand. At the same time, it’s based on the true story of a Gran Turismo player who took his gaming skills from Virtual to Reality (148) and became a professional racecar driver, tying into the franchise’s real-life fanbase. The built-in name recognition will also help boost its levels of online search (122) and social buzz (110).

How does the film build on the video games?
It adds emotion and humanity. Whereas the first-person racing games have no characters, Gran Turismo the movie layers in the inspirational story of a working-class teen who aspires to Bigger Things (160), clashes with his loving-but-concerned father (Father-Son Relationship, 160), faces a life-changing Turning Point (160), and ultimately has his Dreams Come True (120). Overall, these vulnerable, relatable moments will be a bigger draw for the movie than the gaming-like action.

What type of viewing experience should the audience expect?
A well-rounded one. Viewers will primarily leave the theater Thrilled (124) with all the Sports Action (142), as well as more Amused (117) (by the interspersed moments of lighthearted comedy), Touched (112), and Uplifted (123) (by the story of a teen achieving his dreams) than they would be from a typical action film.