Month: March 2023

Next week, Hulu will premiere a buzzy new limited series adapted from the popular book of self-help essays by bestselling memoirist Cheryl Strayed. The poignant dramedy stars Kathryn Hahn as Clare, a floundering writer who becomes a celebrated advice columnist while her own personal life is falling apart.

Here’s what you need to know about Tiny Beautiful Things:

Late next month, Amazon Prime Video will release the first entry in its new globe-spanning spy thriller universe developed by the Russo brothers. The franchise will center around an American ‘mothership’ series that explains the in-universe lore, with multiple local-language spin-offs in countries like India, Italy, and Mexico. The flagship show, already renewed for a second season, stars Richard Madden, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, and Stanley Tucci.

Here’s what you need to know about Citadel:

Who will be watching this landmark series?
Older men. We’re predicting that the audience will be mostly male (64%) and mostly aged 30+ (67%), unsurprising given Citadel’s action-heavy focus.  This profile actually skews more heavily male than similar spy thrillers Jack Ryan, The Terminal List, Reacher, and Treadstone, and falls closer to shooter-driven shows like Halo.

What will these viewers be tuning in to see?
The mission at hand. Spies Nadia and Mason band together (Teamwork, 133) as they Search for the Truth (111) about their missing pasts and Manticore’s mysterious rise, covering each other’s backs with their Lives in Danger (135) at every turn. Their present-day storyline is the top ratings driver.

What type of emotional experience will draw in viewers?
A nail-biting one. Audiences will lean in for Nadia and Mason’s heightened Fear (129) and Vigilance (111) as they slowly recall their shared past as well as their Anger (111) over what was done to them.

What will keep the audience engaged?
The Flashback Format (128). The show jumps between the spies’ past lives as active Citadel agents and their present memory-less state, and the high-stakes Citadel vs. Manticore battle (Good vs. Evil, 113) that plays out throughout this split timeframe will keep viewers hooked.

What will give the series momentum going into season two?
The spy lifestyle. The clandestine Dangerous Missions (128) encompassing far-flung International Locations (123) are top longevity drivers and will provide plenty of compelling story fodder, both for Citadel and its global spin-offs.

How will the Russo brothers’ signature style contribute to the show’s success?
By increasing both bingeability and longevity. The directors are known for their dynamic visual flair, with thrilling set pieces, energetic shots, and up-to-the-minute techniques (like TikTok-inspired camera angles), and their gloriously Stylized Action & Violence (125) showcased in Citadel will keep viewers watching.

How does the initial buzz look?
Very strong. Our social tracking spiked to 148 (out of a possible 160) after the teaser and 151 after the trailer drop, eclipsing the early campaign reactions to similar thrillers Reacher, The Terminal List, and season three of Jack Ryan. Given these series’ success (all three maxed out our social buzz meter upon release), it’s practically a given that Citadel will make a big splash when it lands in April.

Which aspect of the show will have the greatest international appeal?
The Secret Organizations. The top viewership driver around the world is the rivalry between Citadel and Manticore and the agencies’ intriguingly clandestine operations; this angle will help pull in a multi-country audience for Citadel and thus set up the local spin-offs for success.

Late next month, HBOMax will give another boost to the recent true crime drama trend by releasing a new limited series that delves into the whys and wherefores of a brutal real-life murder. Created by the ever-prolific David E. Kelley, the show stars Elizabeth Olsen as Texan housewife Candy Montgomery, who was accused in 1980 of taking an ax to her lover’s wife–who also happened to be her best friend.

Here’s what you need to know about Love & Death:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this dramatized murder?
Older women. We’re predicting an audience that’s 61% female and 70% aged 30+, a profile similar to the viewership for other female-led recent true crime dramas like The Thing About Pam, Inventing Anna, The Girl from Plainville, The Act, and Candy, Hulu’s 2022 take on the same memorable story.

What type of story will Love & Death be telling?
A layered one. The series opens with a murder Mystery (126), teasing questions about victim and slayer, and from there spins out a complicated, outrageous tale of Crime (124), interpersonal Drama (122), uneasy suspense (Thriller, 114), and a central character who contains multitudes (Biography, 111).

What will be the show’s biggest selling point?
Its complex relationships. As told through Candy’s warped perspective (The Accused POV, 135), the audience will get a front row seat to the building Romantic Tension (138) between the soon-to-be murderer and her lover, the Marital Problems (123) mushrooming within her own marriage, and the tangled, intersecting Family Relationships (127) between the two couples at the heart of this story. This series is living proof that Small Town Life (120) doesn’t always equal small town happenings, and all are top ratings drivers.

What will keep viewers watching?
The depravity of the real-life case. Candy’s betrayal of her victim and over-the-top choice of weapon–she struck her friend 41 times with a wood splitting ax–will create an irresistible trainwreck of Bloody Violence (126) and Dark Themes (125) from which audiences won’t be able to look away. The fact that it’s all Based on a True Story (128) will make the entire tale even more compelling.

How does the social buzz look?
Strong. The show has already reached a high-water mark of 140 (out of a possible 160) with only a teaser trailer; things will undoubtedly pick up even more as its campaign gets underway (a pattern mimicking Candy, which maxed out our buzz meter upon release). Once it airs, viewers will be tweeting about the same jarring elements that will make it so deliciously bingeable (its dark, twisted streak).

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Audience interest in royalty is evergreen, with recent years seeing a notable uptick in series focused on their private lives. Three have risen to prominence: The Crown, The Great, and Bridgerton. Netflix’s The Crown follows Queen Elizabeth II, Hulu’s The Great is a satire of Catherine the Great, and Netflix’s Bridgerton is a largely fictionalized series with a new prequel spin-off – Queen Charlotte – coming out in May. With all three showing such success, we’ll likely see more royal dramas to come.

Here’s what you need to know about this trend:

What type of viewers typically tune in for royal period dramas?
It depends. For shows like The Crown, which follows a Strong Female Protagonist (122) and takes a more straightforward Biographical (130) approach to History (141), the audience skews toward older women (59% female and 72% aged 30+). In contrast, The Great maintains a sly, winking tone full of Satirical Humor (122) and looser ties to historical fact, which, along with its male co-lead, results in a much more gender-balanced, younger viewership (48% female, 63% aged 30+). With Queen Charlotte sharing Bridgerton’s DNA and focusing much more heavily on Romance (125) than other entries in the genre, we’re predicting a mostly female (67%) audience nearly identical to that of its predecessor.

How much online chatter do these series have the potential to generate?
Tons. When done well, this genre can easily break into the zeitgeist and become a force on social media: every season of The Crown as well as S1 of The Great maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) upon their release (and The Crown’s ties to recent real-world events certainly doesn’t hurt). While Queen Charlotte has not yet hit the same highs at two months out, it’s undoubtedly only a matter of time given the smash-hit popularity of Bridgerton and its wild success in commandeering the internet’s attention.

What’s the strongest draw for these types of shows?
Their peek behind the royal curtain. Viewers are eminently curious about the lives of kings and queens, and these series’ collective focus on Royalty (160), court Political Life (123), and the overarching desires for Power (135), Honor (136), Independence (137), and Social Status (123) among those bearing the crown is a key driver for their ratings and especially bingeability.

How similar is the storytelling approach of these three shows?
Not at all. The Crown keeps the entire Windsor lineage in its spotlight and grapples with dramatic themes of Family Legacy (152), Family Dysfunction (146), and Strained Family Relationships (143), all crucial drivers for the show’s ratings. The Great, in contrast, is more laser-focused on the couple (Peter III and Catherine II) at its center, and audiences tune in for its sharp, funny depictions of Marital Problems (141) and Adultery (129) within a Loveless Marriage (141). Queen Charlotte will instead be more of an individual story encompassing a Journey of Self-Discovery (114) as the maturing queen confronts a Life-Changing Decision (116) about her future marriage (in keeping with the Bridgerton franchise focus on First Love (127)).

How important will the Bridgerton link be to Queen Charlotte?
Extremely. While The Crown and The Great can lean on their portrayals of well-known historical figures as a hook to lure in viewers, the somewhat fictional Queen Charlotte has no such ‘in’ (while there was a real-life Queen Charlotte, she’s relatively unknown and reimagined for the show). Instead, the popularity of its parent series has created a similar enticement by pre-familiarizing audiences with its main characters; this franchise connection (IP Extension, 120) is one of Queen Charlotte’s top overall viewership drivers.

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The never-actually-planned sequel to History of the World: Part 1 (the subtitle was a joke) is about to become an unexpected reality, as the illustrious Mel Brooks has at long last penned a continuation of his hysterically beloved 1981 film. The resulting sketch comedy limited series rolls out on Hulu next week as a four-night special event and is one of the most anticipated shows of the year, having picked up considerable buzz since its widely shared trailer drop thanks in no small part to its star-studded cast.

Here’s what you need to know about History of the World: Part II:

How will History of the World’s audience compare to other sketch comedy series?
It will include more men. We’re predicting that History viewers will be both mostly male (67%) and mostly older (61%), a somewhat more angular audience than the norm. Previous shows like The Eric Andre Show and Portlandia only leaned male (both 57%), while others (Inside Amy Schumer, MadTV, Key & Peele) fell closer to a gender-balanced middle ground (46-51% male).

What will be the show’s biggest draw?
Its zaniness. The crazy, Over-the-Top Humor (147) derived from its outrageous “historical” scenarios and the goofy Foolishness (147) of its satirical characters is History’s most distinctive feature. The show also stars a veritable who’s who in the comedy world, including Wanda Sykes, Nick Kroll, Danny DeVito, Johnny Knoxville, Taika Waititi, Seth Rogan, Sarah Silverman, Jack Black, and many more, and viewers will want to tune in to see their delectable take on Brooks’s comedy.

What will keep viewers coming back each night?
The history. Underneath the jokes, quips, and clever parodies is a foundation (loosely) Based on Historical Events (130), with sketches centered around well-known figures like Sigmund Freud, Marco Polo, and Harriet Tubman. There are even prominent Religious Themes (119) as the show dips into biblical personages like Mary Magdalene and Noah (of Noah’s Ark fame). The series doesn’t just offer laughs, it also taps into the Emotional Rollercoaster (132) of major, real-life world events, which will make it eminently bingeworthy.

What will get people talking online?
The creative license it takes with history. Buzz-wise, the series is already off to a great start, as the early February trailer release shot to 8M views on YouTube within only two weeks. Once the episodes roll out, it’s the reimagined settings and reinvented situations that viewers will want to discuss; audiences will be excited to see familiar real-world figures brought to life with a modern wink, with exaggerated personalities and outlandish Workplace Dynamics (130) to bring out the comedy.