Rapid Insights: The Family Bonds in Avatar’s New Sequel Will Help It Make a Splash with Audiences

Though first released in 2009–several years before the multi-blockbuster MCU even took shape–James Cameron’s Avatar remains the worldwide highest-grossing film of all time, with a global net of almost $3 billion. Now, thirteen years later, the first of its four long-gestating sequels is teed up to release theatrically in mid-December. This new installment, which has already been picking up steam in online chatter, will return audiences to the epic saga of Pandora and the Na’vi and is expected to make a massive splash at the box office. Here’s what you need to know about Avatar: The Way of Water:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

How will the audience for Way of Water compare to that of the original Avatar?  
It will lean a bit younger. Like its predecessor, Way of Water is expected to skew male (56%), but we’re predicting that it will bring in more viewers under 30 (45%) than did Avatar (42%) thanks to strong interest from teens–a group largely too young to have seen the first movie in theaters.

How is the film’s social buzz?
White hot. #Avatar has been coasting as one of the top Twitter hashtags in the entertainment space all the way out at two months before its theatrical premiere, undoubtedly helped along by this fall’s successful re-release of the original film. Consumers are excitedly tweeting (and retweeting!) about their desire to see Way of Water, especially in specialized formats like IMAX, and the sentiment around the title and its first trailer is overwhelmingly positive.  

What will cause moviegoers to check out Way of Water?
The Avatar name and its newest locale. Audiences are incredibly excited to see this beloved story continue, and Way of Water’s connection to the broader Avatar IP (134) is its #1 driver of demand. Beyond that, though plot details remain sparse, the trailer’s glimpses of the aquatic world of the new-to-the-sequel Metkayina reef clan, led by the compelling chief Tonowari, have piqued viewer interest. The film’s cast learned to freedive and hold their breath for minutes at a time to authentically capture these underwater scenes, and the excitement of seeing this new tribe fight to Protect Their Homeland (129) alongside familiar faces from the first movie will also draw in cinemagoers–particularly men. Similarly, demand for the first Avatar film was largely generated by peeks at the Epic Final Battle (140) that viewers knew would take place between the Na’vi and their human would-be colonizers.

What will distinguish Way of Water from its predecessor?
Family. The original Avatar felt new thanks to the immersive, 3D Scenic Beauty (137) of Pandora and the novelty of a human in avatar form assimilating peacefully into an alien people, finding love (Unlikely Relationship, 127), and coming to appreciate and respect their culture. This time, with audiences already expecting these baseline franchise elements, it’s the evolution of Jake Sully’s integration into the Na’vi that will keep the story fresh: Way of Water focuses on the Family Bonds (114) between Jake, his mate Neytiri, and their children (including an adopted human son), and the measures they’ll take to protect each other. This family-focused story will land best with female audiences, particularly older women 45+.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

Cabinet of Curiosities’ Themes of Death and Horror Will Give Audiences a Halloween Thrill

Just in time for Halloween comes Netflix’s spooktacular new anthology series–each episode tells a unique, self-contained story–that will delve into the fantastical and macabre and challenge the classical horror genre as only director Guillermo del Toro can. Created by the well-known Oscar-winner, the show offers up a chocolate box of eerie tales, each one containing something new and unexpected, and will follow a similarly novel roll-out: the eight episodes will be released in pairs, grouped thematically, on four successive nights. Here’s what you need to know about Guillermo del Toro’s Cabinet of Curiosities:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

How will Cabinet’s audience compare to those of other recent horror anthology series?
It’ll be more evenly balanced. Cabinet of Curiosities is, uniquely, predicted to appeal equally to both men and women, and, while it will likely lean older (with 57% aged 30+), it shows less of a bias toward the 30+ crowd than similar shows. In contrast, American Horror Stories leans more decidedly female (57%), while zombiefest Tales of the Walking Dead as well as the more overtly sci-fi The Twilight Zone and Black Mirror all skew much more male (53-60%) and considerably older (63-86% aged 30+).

How is the show’s social tracking?
Rising. Cabinet’s social buzz initially peaked at 135 in late September with its official trailer drop and, after a brief lull, has skyrocketed (160) thanks to the series’ release. For comparison, neither of the episode releases for American Horror Stories nor Tales of the Walking Dead quite reached the heights of online chatter that surrounded Cabinet’s full-length trailer.

Why will viewers be tuning in?
For the Halloween-appropriate themes. In addition to the lure of del Toro’s fantastical stylings, each episode’s heightened Scary Situations (149), where various characters must confront risky, sinister, Life in Danger (136)-type scenarios, and the wickedly Evil Spirits (132) that haunt them all will entice audiences and draw big ratings.

What emotional experience can viewers expect?
An unsettling one. Cabinet plays up feelings of Disgust (133) thanks to its built-in themes surrounding Death (135) and the macabre as well as the Terror (124) and Surprise (120) of characters desperate to escape with their lives.

How important is the involvement of series creator Guillermo del Toro?
Essential. Del Toro’s unique sensibility and visual style, established in past triumphs like Pan’s Labyrinth, Hellboy, and The Shape of Water, is similarly evident in Cabinet, which leans heavily into his signature milieu. The Myth & Fantasy (160), compellingly imaginative Magical Creatures (123), and overall sense of wonder and Magic (121)–albeit of a darker turn here–that have come to define his brand are crucial viewership drivers for his new series.

What’s the impact of the show’s anthology format?
It drives bingeability. The fact that the series is Based on a Book (154)–or, more accurately, a number of short stories by different writers–and that every episode tells a distinct, standalone tale with a different tone and theme makes viewers eager to watch them all.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

Rapid Insights: Serial Killer Docudramas Indulge Our Fascination With Evil

Audiences have expressed increasing interest in true crime series over the past several years, and the shows that focus on well-known serial killers seem to engender a particularly strong fascination. After four weeks in release, Netflix’s new limited series Dahmer, about the infamously cannibalistic serial murderer of 1980s Milwaukee, has exploded onto the scene to become its second most-watched English-language show of all time. Earlier this summer, Apple TV+’s Black Bird found success spinning the tale of Larry Hall, the Midwest rapist and torturer of young women who was active around the same time. Here’s what you need to know about these serial killer dramas:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s most drawn to these can’t-look-away dramas?
The 30+ audience. Dahmer has succeeded with a fairly wide target, with viewers evenly balanced between genders (50% male / 50% female) but skewing mostly older (62% aged 30+), and with relatively few teens in the mix (only 10% <18). Black Bird has similar demographics with slightly higher percentages of women and viewers over thirty but slightly less teens (51% Female / 66% aged 30+ / 9% <18).

Which elements are driving ratings for shows of this kind?
The criminal justice system and infuriating circumstances. Dahmer showcases the institutional incompetence of the Milwaukee police during their blatantly superficial Criminal Investigation (156) and the appalling Racial Issues (145) of the time that caused the city to turn a blind eye to Dahmer’s mostly-POC male victims. Black Bird focuses on similar elements, with the former taking place in prison as its protagonist is Serving Time (137) and assisting in ongoing Missing Person (120) cases. Viewers are drawn to seeing the justice system grapple with such horrifying crimes, and how they eventually shake out.

What else is compelling about these shows?
They explore the minds of real-life killers. These series, both Based on a True Story, dive into the Psychological Turmoil of mentally disturbed individuals and give viewers a peek into their personal backstories from Broken Families to Strained Relationships. These types of shows allow viewers to engage with these infamous figures and explore their personal worlds, contextualizing what shaped these men into monsters.

What does the social buzz look like for these types of shows?
It’s high. Dahmer has maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) ever since the ten episode series was released on September 21st. Interestingly, the more modest public reaction to its trailer drop a few days prior (peaking at 127) would not necessarily have predicted this level of engagement. While this summer’s Black Bird saw a trailer-related bump and experienced multiple peaks in buzz during its weekly episodic roll-out, it did not see the same level of sustained interest as Dahmer.

What is the emotional experience that these shows provide?
The chance to be repulsed by a monster. Dahmer offers an intimate look at a horrifying killer from the perspective of his innocent victims. The gut-churning Bloody Violence (135) as well as his Psychological Turmoil (127) as a mentally twisted, compulsive manipulator engenders an overwhelming sense of Loathing (139) and Contempt (139), all of which are top ratings draws. In Black Bird, it’s the blood-pumping Life-changing Decisions (146) and the unsolved mystery of the Missing Person (120) case that contribute to feelings of Disgust and Rage (95) that drive the series’ ratings.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

Rapid Insights: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Sees a Grieving Nation Find New Strength

Next month, Marvel will release the much-awaited sequel to its critically-acclaimed blockbuster hit Black Panther, and audiences are champing at the bit to find out what will happen to the citizens of Wakanda. Specific details around the plot have largely been kept under wraps, and there is much debate over which character–if any–will be taking over the mantle of Black Panther from the beloved, much-missed Chadwick Boseman/T’Challa. Here’s what you need to know about Black Panther: Wakanda Forever:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Will the audience for Wakanda Forever be the same as for its predecessor?
Yes. We’re predicting a nearly identical age breakdown for the sequel (43% <30 / 57% 30+) as was seen with the original film (42% <30 / 58% 30+), and a very similar close-to-even gender split.

How will the film address the loss of Chadwick Boseman?
By fully embracing the grief. Wakanda Forever is a film that, both on and off screen, begins in the wake of an unexpected tragedy. The sadness underpinning the movie’s broader sense of adventure coalesces in a secondary storyline of Mourning (112) as the people of Wakanda come to terms with the loss of the beloved T’Challa. The new vacuum in the nation’s power structure also allows Ramonda, Shuri, Okoye, and other Strong Women (111) to step further into the spotlight as they grapple with questions of Royal Succession (109) and who is best positioned to replace him as leader. These more emotional elements are a stronger draw for female audiences.

What is everyone talking about in advance of the film’s premiere?
The film’s newest character. As expected, there’s a sky-high level of anticipation for Wakanda Forever, and many intended viewers are expressing their interest on social media through a large volume of posts and tweets (clearing 3.5 million on Twitter alone over just the past two weeks). In addition to the beloved cast that will be returning from the first film, these online denizens are discussing the newest addition to the franchise: Namor, the mutant king of an ancient underwater empire, as well as Tenoch Huerta, the actor who portrays him. Marvel fans are especially excited to see this well-liked comic book character brought to life.

What will set Wakanda Forever apart from the original Black Panther?
The exploration of an intriguing new civilization. The Underwater World (134) of Talokan, ruled by the mutant king Namor, and the imaginative Futuristic Warfare (136) and technology that they employ against their land-bound enemies are the key freshness drivers for this new film.

What’s the main story draw for Wakanda Forever?
Its civilization-destroying stakes. This sequel introduces a broad Geopolitical Conflict (123) that arises between Wakanda and other nations as the former is made vulnerable by the death of its king, as well as the battle between Tradition vs. Modernity (117) as the Wakandan people fight to protect their cultural heritage and way of life (both of which are particularly appealing for male viewers). While it did touch on some of these themes, the original Black Panther, in contrast, largely focused on a more personal story of Revenge (121).

How important is the film’s Black point of view?
Still essential, but not as much of a front-and-center draw as for Black Panther. Given that the original movie introduced the first Black Marvel superhero, its refreshingly all-Black cast and centering of a Black Narrative was its top ratings draw (140) and a key component in differentiating it from other action-adventure films (110). As this concept has thankfully become less unique even in only the past few years, the fact that Wakanda Forever offers a similar Black focus is still an important driver of demand, but it has lessened in strength (115) and now falls behind the movie’s broader stakes in convincing theatergoers to buy tickets.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

Rapid Insights: 1899 is a Chilling Tale of Nautical Survival

In mid-November, Netflix will release an intriguing new supernatural horror project from the creators of the German-language series Dark, which proved to be a favorite among both audiences and critics. This new series promises to be an epic, mind-bending thriller, following a group of European migrants at the turn of the 20th century whose hopeful steamship journey to New York turns into a nightmare when they encounter another mysterious vessel adrift at sea. Here’s what you need to know about 1899:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

How will 1899 viewers compare to those who watched Dark?
They’ll include more men. While both series cater to a mostly older audience (64-65% aged 30+), the nautically-themed 1899 is expected to lean male (53% male / 47% female), whereas Dark leaned more female (47% male / 53% female).

How will 1899 compare to Dark?
It will offer a spookier tone and broader focus. While Dark, with its storylines around multigenerational time travel, delved heavily into elements of thrilling sci-fi, 1899 will lean more directly into themes of mystery and horror. Similarly, where Dark focused on a more contained setting of small-town life, family tensions, and the secrets held between neighbors, 1899 will feature a wide-ranging group of international travelers fighting for their lives on the open sea.

What type of story will 1899 be telling?
One that spans genres. Though specific details of its plot are being kept tightly under wraps, the story is expected to incorporate elements of War (120)Adventure (120)Sci-Fi (118)History (118)Horror (117), and Mystery (115). This convergence of styles and influences will help broaden the show’s scope and make it feel more compellingly epic.

What will compel viewers to tune in?
A story of heart-pounding peril. The Survival Skills (160) that the ship’s passengers will be forced to rely on once it becomes clear that their Lives are in Danger (137) are the top ratings drivers for 1899 and promise viewers an engrossing life-or-death struggle. The Action & Violence (133) accompanying their fight as well as the spooky Mysterious Event (131) that set the other ship adrift will add stakes and tension. At the same time, the broader Outdoor Adventure represented by their seafaring voyage will be the top contributor to both a second-season renewal (160) and online social buzz (151).

What will be the impact of the series’ continent-spanning cast?
Increased bingeability. The show boasts a truly international roster, with actors portraying characters from across the European continent and all speaking their own native tongues. This stand-out, multilingual sense of Cultural Diversity (145) will help generate a variety of conflicts within the story and is the #1 driver for keeping viewers glued to their seats.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox weekly.

Sign up for StoryGuide for more details and analysis.

About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

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