Author: Claire Turner

Prolific writer/creator Taylor Sheridan’s relationship with Paramount+ will once again pay robust dividends with Sunday’s premiere of his newest streaming series. The show is an intense spy thriller featuring Zoe Saldaña, Nicole Kidman, and Morgan Freeman and will follow a newly recruited CIA agent as she goes undercover among Middle Eastern power brokers who sponsor anti-US terrorism.

Here’s what you need to know about Special Ops: Lioness:

How will this audience compare to Sheridan’s other streaming originals?
It’ll be slightly younger and more gender-balanced. For Lioness, we’re predicting a roughly even male-female split (52% M / 48% F) and, though still older-leaning, an age skew (at 69% aged 30+) that’s less extreme. In contrast, the creator’s other Paramount+ series have slanted more heavily male (from 1883’s 55% to Tulsa King’s 66%) and older (72-79% aged 30+).

What will set Lioness apart in the Sheridan universe?
It treads new genre ground. In his TV projects, Sheridan has tended to play in the Western sandbox, not only straightforwardly via neo-western Yellowstone (133) and spin-offs 1883 (152) and 1923 (153), but also with crime dramas Mayor of Kingstown (128) and Tulsa King (131), which ideate on key genre tropes like the lone wolf, frontier justice, and the wild west. Lioness, however, tones down the Western (115) elements in favor of heightened War (125) and Action (121) themes.

How important is it that this series is led by women?
Extremely. While Yellowstone, 1883, 1923, and Mayor of Kingstown all have ensemble casts with prominent women (Tulsa King is populated almost entirely by men), Lioness is Sheridan’s first series that puts female characters front-and-center. Consequently, their stories (Strong Female Characters, Female Professionals) are the #1 drivers for all four of our tracked metrics: ratings (160), longevity (144), bingeability (137), and social buzz (127).

Why else will viewers want to tune in?
For the intrigue and Espionage (112). Alongside its strong women, the spy thriller elements that make this show unique among Sheridan’s oeuvre will provide a compelling reason to watch. The excitement of an untested agent Working Undercover (128) to infiltrate a terrorist organization, the knife’s edge she must walk to stay undetected among her targets (Strained Relationships, 160), and the complicated inner workings of the Intelligence Agency (119) steering the ship will all have viewers on the edge of their seats.

What will Lioness have in common with Sheridan’s other shows?
Action & Violence (133). Whether set in the new (or old) west, the city of Tulsa, or the Middle East, the creator’s shows all feature dangerous confrontations, chaotic shoot-outs, violent bloodshed, and other intense moments where the protagonists find themselves in desperate peril (Life in Danger, 115). In addition, Lioness follows a Marine with a troubled past whose entry into the CIA represents A New Beginning (124), a theme shared with both 1883 and Tulsa King, two other shows whose characters needed a fresh start.

2010’s Justified will become the latest series to receive a years-later revival with next week’s release of Justified: City Primeval on FX. Such revivals traffic in nostalgia, appealing to fans by continuing a beloved story rather than rebooting it, with original cast members playing their original characters a crucial part of the deal; shows as varied as Gilmore Girls, Roseanne, Dexter, and The X-Files have previously won such a return. In this case, Timothy Olyphant will reprise his role as protagonist Raylan Givens, an ornery lawman dedicated to upholding his own Wild West-style of justice.

Here’s what you need to know about Justified: City Primeval and this continuing revival trend:

Do these revivals attract the same demos as their original series runs?
If they’re on the same networks. Revivals like Dexter: New Blood and The Conners, which remained on Showtime and ABC, respectively, hit the same demo sweet spots as their predecessors; FX’s Justified: City Primeval is expected to do the same (bringing in Justified’s roughly gender-balanced (52% female / 48% male) and heavily older (92% aged 35+) crowd). However, shows that have jumped from linear to streaming (That ‘90s Show, Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life) instead factor in the built-in audience of their new home, and series where the protagonists have matured into an entirely different phase of life (And Just Like That, iCarly) have instead seen their viewership age alongside.

Does their name recognition translate into strong social buzz?
Absolutely. Shows that earn this type of continuation are typically those with a strong fanbase, and the much-later returns of everything from The X-Files, Dexter, Veronica Mars, and Roseanne to Full House, That ‘70s Show, Gilmore Girls, and Sex and the City generated so much excitement that they maxed out our social buzz meter (hitting 160) with the premiere of their revival seasons. Justified: City Primeval hasn’t reached this high quite yet, but it’s trending upward fast (with a current peak at 129) and will likely do so next week.

Why do viewers tune into these revivals?
Nostalgia. Overall, the strongest viewership drivers for these years-later seasons are those that tap directly into their brands’ core DNA. Top ratings-getters from And Just Like That, for example, are the same themes of Female Friendship (122), Female Conflict (119), and Looking for Love (121) that were first perfected in Sex and the City. Dexter: New Blood audiences wanted to see a new iteration of the same dysfunctional Father-Child Relationship (129) (as well as Dexter’s familiar Voice-Over Narration (132)), Fuller House fans appreciated new versions of the Supportive Relationships (160), Sibling Dynamics (147), and Single Parent (129) household found in their 90’s fave, and those watching the now-adult Punky Brewster tuned in for the same Adopted Family (144) concept found in the original.

Are viewers put off by the updates made to these later seasons?
Generally not. In a bid to both refresh their concepts and acknowledge how much time has passed, these revivals tend to drop their protagonists into new and often more modern situations, and such change-ups can also create enticing reasons to watch. For example, the kids of Full House became the Divorced (126) adults of Fuller House, The Conners now incorporates strong LGBTQIA+ Themes (132) (as well as a powerful Grief-Stricken (126) throughline with the (fictional) death of their matriarch), Dexter: First Blood tackles Teen Angst (112) for the first time with the introduction of Dexter’s son, and That ‘90s Show has swapped the 70s milieu for teen life in the 1990s (160).

How does Justified: City Primeval compare to the original Justified?
It’s unusually different. Whereas most of these revivals lean on the same core tenets as their origin shows, City Primeval is a notable exception. Justified’s viewership was driven largely by its unforgettable villains and family-against-family tangle of warring factions in the backwaters of rural Kentucky, all loosely policed by Deputy US Marshal Raylan Givens (Crime Family, 128; Family Secret, 133; Family Conflict, 130). City Primeval instead jettisons this set-up entirely and transplants an older Raylan to an all-new locale to chase an all-new type of criminal, all while battling both the killer’s lawyer and his teenage daughter; because of this shift in focus, City Primeval’s ratings will depend on a different set of themes (Serial Killer, 126; Personal Backstory, 121; Parenting Problems, 120). However, the two pieces of the Justified story do have a basic throughline in common: Raylan’s ongoing desires for Vengeance, Power, and Honor, and the Action & Violence he must use to pursue them.

This August, Sony’s mega-hit PlayStation video game series comes to the big screen as a biographical coming-of-age sports drama set in the franchise’s beloved high-octane racing world. The movie tells the true story of Jann Mardenborough, a top-notch teen gamer who turned his superior virtual skills into a clinch tournament win and, ultimately, a real-life career as a professional racecar driver.

Here’s what you need to know about Gran Turismo:

Who will be buying tickets for this exciting sports drama?
Teen boys primarily. We’re predicting an audience that skews heavily male (61%)–based on the trailer, women will be a much harder-to-capture group–with the greatest demand coming from boys <18 (116). This breakdown most closely matches that of a typical action-based film rather than the average sports movie (which tends to attract a few more women).

Will Fast & Furious fans be buying tickets?
Not necessarily. While we are predicting that the Fast & Furious audience will be especially drawn to themes of Rivalry (137) and Family Bonds (132), on the whole their predicted affinity for the upcoming film is average (98).

Will the video game series be important to the movie’s success?
Absolutely. The film leans into the same adrenaline-pumping elements that have made the beloved racing games so popular: high-speed maneuvering, blow-out crashes, and thrilling near misses (Intense Racing Action, 135), all key drivers of demand. At the same time, it’s based on the true story of a Gran Turismo player who took his gaming skills from Virtual to Reality (148) and became a professional racecar driver, tying into the franchise’s real-life fanbase. The built-in name recognition will also help boost its levels of online search (122) and social buzz (110).

How does the film build on the video games?
It adds emotion and humanity. Whereas the first-person racing games have no characters, Gran Turismo the movie layers in the inspirational story of a working-class teen who aspires to Bigger Things (160), clashes with his loving-but-concerned father (Father-Son Relationship, 160), faces a life-changing Turning Point (160), and ultimately has his Dreams Come True (120). Overall, these vulnerable, relatable moments will be a bigger draw for the movie than the gaming-like action.

What type of viewing experience should the audience expect?
A well-rounded one. Viewers will primarily leave the theater Thrilled (124) with all the Sports Action (142), as well as more Amused (117) (by the interspersed moments of lighthearted comedy), Touched (112), and Uplifted (123) (by the story of a teen achieving his dreams) than they would be from a typical action film.

Amazon Prime Video’s newest original series, releasing next week, will be joining the swelling ranks of buzzy scripted shows developed from popular podcasts. This notable list includes the likes of Gaslit, The Dropout, Dirty John, and The Shrink Next Door from the based-on-a-true-story side, as well as Homecoming and Archive 81 from the purely fictional; Prime’s horror-dramedy will join the latter as the Sweeney Todd-inspired story of an ex-felon masseuse who inadvertently becomes a killer. For this analysis, The Horror of Dolores Roach trailer was examined, though it is not unusual for Vault to analyze podcasts, something done early on to test the commercial viability of content even before a script has been written.

Here’s what you need to know about The Horror of Dolores Roach and this podcast-based trend:

Is there a typical audience for these types of shows?
Not really. The specific story being told determines who’ll be watching it, from the heavily female-skewing (Dirty John, The Thing About Pam) to the more male-leaning (WeCrashed, Joe vs Carole), though nearly all appeal most strongly to viewers 30+. For Dolores Roach, we’re predicting a balanced viewership (51% female) and being mostly older (67% aged 30+).

What do podcast-based series tend to have in common?
Dark twists. These tales–whether fictional or not–are filled with Scandal, Conspiracy & Cover-Ups, Betrayal, Moral Dilemmas, Scheming, and Ruthlessness, all of which provide excellent fodder for a story told in chapters. Audiences can’t help but come back to watch the shocking events unfold, whether it’s the hubris-filled downfall of a company (WeCrashed, The Dropout), the concealment of murder (The Thing About Pam, Dr. Death, Dolores Roach), or abusers and con artists behaving badly (Dirty John, The Shrink Next Door, Homecoming).

What makes these shows so watchable?
The relationships. To flesh out their deception-filled worlds, these series turn the spotlight onto the protagonists’ loved ones, who either contribute to their schemes or become innocent collateral damage. Either way, the focus on themes like Family Conflict, Marital Problems, Mother-Child Relationships, Family Dysfunction, Unlikely Friendship, and Coworker Dynamics adds layers and emotional stakes to the can’t-look-away core conspiracies.

What will set Dolores Roach apart?
Its setting. While the series leans into the same central themes that make podcast-based shows popular (Conspiracy & Cover-Ups, 152; Moral Dilemmas, 135; Friendship, 129), it’s the specificity of its world that will draw in viewers. Dolores Roach’s built-in Cultural Diversity (160) as it follows Latino characters in the rapidly gentrifying neighborhood of Washington Heights (NYC Setting, 129) and its plunge into the Culinary World (128) of a Sweeney Todd-inspired empanada shop will help drive both ratings and bingeability.

Is the original source podcast important to a show’s ratings?
No. Though it may help with initial buzz, the podcast IP that gave birth to these scripted series is not a top reason for viewers to watch them; instead, audiences tune in for the specific story being told. That said, a show Based on a True Story that has hit the zeitgeist–which the original podcast may have fed into–can indeed ride the popularity of its tale to better ratings (The Dropout, WeCrashed, The Thing About Pam, Dr. Death, Joe vs Carol).

Next month, a year and change after last summer’s runaway smash Top Gun: Maverick, Paramount will release the newest fruit of its long-time collaboration with megastar Tom Cruise: the next entry in the Mission: Impossible franchise. With the story split across two movies, the spy-based action-thriller will follow Ethan Hunt and his IMF team as they race around the globe to track down a terrifying new weapon before it can fall into the wrong hands.

Here’s what you need to know about Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One:

Who will be lining up to see this film in theaters?
A relatively wide viewership. We’re predicting an audience that skews male (66%) and older (58% aged 30+), a profile in line with 2018’s Mission: Impossible –  Fallout. Comparing Dead Reckoning to Maverick, there are some differences reflected in audience demand. Specifically, younger males are even more excited for Dead Reckoning (138) than they were for Maverick (125), while older males show the opposite ((143) vs. (154), respectively), though it is worth pointing out that all these scores are in the outstanding range.

Will Tom Cruise fans follow its charismatic star to Dead Reckoning?
Absolutely. Leveraging data from TV Time’s 12 million registered users, our analysis reveals that those who love Cruise’s most recent films (including Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and The Mummy) have an outstanding level of engagement for Dead Reckoning. Unsurprisingly, devotees of the Mission: Impossible franchise also register with an outstanding score. In contrast, the score for Top Gun: Maverick fans is not quite at the same high level of these aforementioned fan groups. This audience pattern suggests that fans of the Top Gun and Mission Impossible franchises do not entirely overlap. It also speaks to the unique storytelling elements that each franchise offers.

How can Dead Reckoning pull in as many Top Gun fans given that film’s success?
Focus on the mission and stunts. Ethan Hunt and his team’s quest to stop a weapon of mass destruction echoes Maverick and his trainees’ goal of decommissioning a nuclear weapons plant and will leave viewers similarly on the edge of their seats. Maverick lovers drawn to that film’s action-packed Aerial Combat (117) and life-or-death stakes are likely to be interested in Dead Reckoning’s extreme stunts, heroic, save-the-world Impossible Mission (114), and nail-biting Race Against Time (112).

What separates Top Gun: Maverick from Dead Reckoning?
Its unique blend of excitement and nostalgia. Thanks to its focus on rivalry, competition and training within the US Navy, Maverick welded aspects of the War (126) and Sports (120) genres onto its action-thriller base, genres that don’t appear in Dead Reckoning, but undoubtedly appealed to male fans. At the same time, the film effectively leaned into emotional nostalgia with themes of Overcoming Grief (115), being Haunted by the Past (112), and Mentorship (110) of the next generation; all were key drivers of viewership.

What will set Dead Reckoning apart from previous Mission: Impossible films?
New stunts and a new character. The headliner moment in Dead Reckoning–that Tom Cruise performed himself–is a death-defying cliff jump on a motorcycle, and that plus a complicated sequence on a crashing train (Extreme Stunts, 119; High-Speed Pursuit, 118) is what will get people talking online. The movie also features several Kick-Ass Women (110) returning from Mission: Impossible – Fallout alongside a strong new heroine played by Hayley Atwell. These highlights, along with the franchise’s built-in Spy/Espionage (129) backdrop, help both to differentiate it from Top Gun: Maverick and explain its distinctive fanbase.

Later this month, Apple TV+ will be releasing a tense new thriller that’s sure to take viewers on an unforgettable ride. Taking place in real time, the seven-hour limited series stars Idris Elba as a skilled corporate negotiator who must broker a peaceful ending after his flight from Dubai to London is taken hostage by terrorists.

Here’s what you need to know about Hijack:

Who will be adding Hijack to their queue?
Older men. We’re predicting a mostly male audience (62%) that leans heavily toward those 30+ (74%), a demo profile very similar to male-led, action-heavy thrillers like The Terminal List, Citadel, Jack Ryan, Reacher, and The Old Man. In contrast, Elba’s arguably best-known TV role–as the titular detective in dark crime drama Luther–appealed more to women (54%).

What type of story will this series be telling?
An intense one. Based on the trailer, the show will include strong elements of Action (123) and War (121) as the passengers fight back against the hijackers, all underscored by an edge-of-your-seat Thriller (118) as the stakes become life-or-death for everyone on board.

Why will audiences want to tune in?
For the ticking clock. The show’s real-time Race Against Time (142) ratchets up the tension as Elba’s Sam Nelson embarks on a Dangerous Mission (140) to stop the hijackers, risking his own life in the process. Viewers will lean in for the heightened sense of heart-pounding Vigilance (126) and Aggressiveness (126) on display. Other recent thrillers have also paired these same drivers to great effect, including The Lost Symbol and Leverage: Redemption.

What will be appealing about Idris Elba’s protagonist?
His heroics. Sam’s Bravery (141) in swallowing his fears and Stepping Up (134) in a moment of crisis are also top ratings drivers, and the resulting Admiration (126), Awe (126), Amazement (126), and Optimism (126) that will spring up within the audience will add a twist of positivity to an otherwise heavy, scary story.

What will make this series bingeworthy?
The broader conspiracy. While Sam takes charge in the air, the British armed forces get involved on the ground (Military Operation, 138), aided by several Intelligence Agencies (114) who work to uncover exactly who the terrorists are, what they want (Terrorism, 113), and why there are five nonexistent people listed on the plane’s passenger manifest.

On July 21, two aspiring blockbusters will be going head-to-head in a theatrical release weekend for the ages. Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, will bring the iconic doll to life in a sparklingly pink fantasy-comedy. Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, starring Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, and Matt Damon, will revisit the morally complicated invention of the atomic bomb during WWII.

Here’s what you need to know about this showdown:

Will these films cannibalize each other’s audiences?
No. Instead of competing for the same viewers, these two titles are a perfect example of same-weekend counterprogramming.  For Barbie, we’re predicting a heavy skew toward females under 30 (32%), while Oppenheimer will land squarely among men 30+ (46%).

Why will younger women want to buy tickets for Barbie?
For its winking take on a childhood classic. Viewers will be drawn to its titular Strong Female Protagonist (142) on a Journey of Self-Discovery (120) as she becomes fully self-aware and, along with her famous beau (Ken’s Existential Crisis, 135), learns to question the meaning of life and find true happiness. The comedy infused throughout, from clever Meta-Humor (142) to broadly Absurdist Satire (125), will keep things light. Additionally, the Fantasy-Reality Crossover (124), where the characters leave bubblegum Barbie Land for real-life Venice Beach, will make the movie feel fresh and unique.

Why will older men want to buy tickets to Oppenheimer?
For its deep-dive into a complicated era. In this film, real-world History (138) will be front and center as the story explores nuclear physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer’s Top-Secret Mission (121) to develop a war-ending weapon for the Allies in WWII. Viewers will appreciate the scientist’s deep Inner Conflict (160) as he navigates organizational Power Plays (146) and struggles with the horrifying and potentially world-ending consequences of his ‘mushroom cloud’ invention (Humanity in Peril, 160).

How different will the viewer experience be for these films?
Very. Based on its trailer, Barbie registers primarily as Comedic (125) and Fantastical (110), and audiences can expect to exit the theater feeling Amused (131) and Thrilled (117) by its characters’ adventures. In contrast, Oppenheimer, in spite of dabbling in elements of Spy/Espionage (117) intrigue, will offer a heavier cinematic experience, leaving viewers Reflective (128) and potentially Sad (119).

Will these films see a similar international profile?
No. Our algorithm suggests that Barbie will perform best in Australia (121) and Latin America (Mexico 118, Brazil, 115), while Oppenheimer will likely stand out most in Europe, especially Italy (120), Germany (118), and France (118).