Category: Uncategorized

On August 31, Netflix released its new live-action adaptation of a beloved classic manga and anime franchise and the show was an undeniable hit, ranking #1 in viewership in 84 countries over its first weekend. Already renewed for a second season, the series follows the fantastical misadventures of an eclectic pirate crew as they scour land and sea to find a fabled lost treasure.

Here’s what you need to know about One Piece:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s been watching this wildly successful adaptation?
Males. The One Piece audience is heavily male (69%) and mostly older (63% aged 30+), a near exact match for fellow Netflix live-action anime adaptation Cowboy Bebop. Both have run quite a bit older than the streaming audience for animated anime series like Dragon Ball Super (only 43% aged 30+) and Attack on Titan (only 36%).

Why are so many people tuning in for One Piece?
Its imaginative world and memorably motley crew. The show highlights the hard-won Camaraderie (142) that forms after a band of wacky misfits Team Up (142) under the Leadership (134) of novice captain Monkey D. Luffy to become the swashbuckling Straw Hat Pirates. Viewers are rooting for these underdogs to pull together and find the legendary missing treasure, all while navigating a world full of dangerous cutthroats (Piracy, 141), mythical monsters, and superbeings with powers like super speed and telekinetic dismemberment (Life in Danger, 134).

How is One Piece’s social buzz?
Through the roof. Matching its strong viewership, the show has seen a sustained level of online chatter that has maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) since it was released almost three weeks ago. The popularity of its source material also created considerable ingoing interest: there were big spikes in buzz for the series’ release date announcement as well as each trailer drop. Its viewers are primarily talking and tweeting about the Straw Hat Pirates’ collective treasure hunt (Teamwork, 146) and their earnest captain’s quest to win the title ‘King of the Pirates’ (Ambition & Drive, 138).

What will drive the show’s long-term story arcs?
Interpersonal dynamics. As individuals, the misfits and weirdos in the Straw Hat Pirates represent a range of talents, personalities, and backgrounds (Cultural Diversity, 122), and, deep down, they’re all searching for Family (122) and a sense of belonging. The Unlikely Friendships (120) they form with each other will set the stage for future conflicts and create an evergreen story engine for next season and beyond.

How is One Piece different from Cowboy Bebop?
It’s not quite as intense. Cowboy Bebop–Netflix’s other recent live-action anime adaptation–makes for an obvious point of comparison for One Piece, and both do feature a wacky team-up of unlikely companions (bounty hunters, in the former’s case) on a wide-ranging search for their quarry. However, Cowboy Bebop features a very different storytelling style, leaning into its futuristic Sci-Fi (135) space setting with cool Gizmos & Technology (123) and bringing in viewers with ‘shoot ’em up’ Stylized Action & Violence (116) and a clear-cut fight between the protagonists and the gun-toting villains they’re pursuing (Good vs. Evil, 118). One Piece, on the other hand, focuses on the more absurdly comical Awkward Misadventures (152) of its hapless crew, and its fight sequences take on a more surrealist bent thanks to their captain’s ability to stretch his body like rubber.

 

Amazon Prime’s wildly successful series The Boys will launch its much-awaited second spin-off (after the animated The Boys Presents: Diabolical) later this month. Set in the same Vought-controlled universe as its predecessors, Gen V will focus on the cutthroat (literally and figuratively) competition between dangerously out-of-control superheroes-in-training at the Godolkin University School of Crimefighting.

Here’s what you need to know about Gen V and the rest of The Boys franchise:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s tuning in for these satirical superheroes?
Younger men. Though we’re predicting that Gen V will be notably less male than its predecessors (61% vs The Boys’ 78% and Diabolical’s 70%), all three skew heavily towards men and somewhat to those under 30. The franchise as a whole is much more male-focused than is typical for the misfit superhero genre, including Doom Patrol (only 55% men), The Umbrella Academy (53%), Misfits (54%), and Watchmen (57%).

What’s so appealing about The Boys and its spin-offs?
They’re a clever send-up of a mega-popular genre. While these shows start with the Superpowers (130), Team-Ups (118), and Stylized Action & Violence (116) that make the Marvel and DC Universes so beloved, they take a hard right turn into the darkly comedic, layering in whip-smart Satirical Humor (128), hilariously over-the-top Bloody Violence (129), and bizarrely quirky Antiheroes (121) to smash apart the classic tropes and construct a biting Social Commentary (123).

Do they tend to attract a lot of attention?
Most definitely. The Boys regularly maxes out our social buzz meter (to 160), not only when it’s in season but also as new information is revealed, as with July’s big announcement of a Call of Duty collaboration. The spin-offs themselves don’t quite hit the same highs, but are still in the outstanding range. Diabolical spiked to (130) with its 2022 premiere. Gen V saw a bump to (123) with the release of its teaser trailer, with still plenty of time for an even bigger build-up to its premiere.

What will distinguish Gen V from the other Boys series?
A clearer-cut line between Good vs. Evil (130). While The Boys features a conflict between two teams of borderline psychopaths and Diabolical’s characters are all over the map, Gen V follows a more uncomplicatedly rootworthy (at least in the trailer) group of students who must uncover the darkly terrible things going on at their university (Searching for the Truth, 124). Additionally, Gen V boasts a central Strong Female Protagonist (122), while the main characters on The Boys are mostly, well, boys.

What will help Gen V power through to a second season?
Its take on Young Adult Life (114). While the show’s skewering of the ‘school for superheroes’ cliché will drive ratings and bingeability, it’s actually the more mundane aspects of the college experience–albeit colored by a dark and violent sci-fi twist–that will provide its story engine for future seasons. Viewers will become wrapped up in the typical student squabbles over Social Status (125), academic ranking (Competitiveness, 115), friendships, and romance. In contrast, longevity for both The Boys and Diabolical is driven by their superpowered team-ups and misadventures.

 

Two new comedies just entering the storied realm of adult animation promise to make an indelible mark on the genre. Captain Fall, recently released on Netflix, tells the story of a sweet but dimwitted sea captain unwittingly fronting a smuggling ring for a dangerous international cartel. Dan Harmon’s Krapopolis, coming later this month to Fox, focuses on an outlandish family of humans, gods, and monsters attempting to create the world’s first city in ancient Greece.

Here’s what you need to know about these new animated comedies:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

What type of audience tunes in for this genre?
It depends on the show and the platform. Family-based series (The Simpsons, Family Guy, American Dad!) tend to lean female, especially if they’re on TV, while those incorporating sci-fi, action, or crude humor (Futurama, Rick and Morty, Archer, South Park) are more likely to lean male, especially on streaming. For Krapopolis’s linear debut on Fox, we’re predicting a roughly gender-balanced audience (51% male / 49% female) that skews mostly older (81% aged 35+), in keeping with broadcast TV trends. In contrast, streaming’s Captain Fall has a heavily male (72%) viewership that’s more evenly distributed across age groups (47% <30 / 53% 30+). (We’re estimating that Krapopolis will pull in similar SVOD demos among those watching the next day on Hulu.)

Why are shows in this genre so appealing?
They wring a good time out of annoying characters. Adult animation tends to excel in poking ironic fun at buffoonish, ridiculous, and over-the-top archetypes (think Homer Simpson, Peter Griffin, BoJack Horseman, everyone on South Park), and viewers tune in for the resulting clash of emotions. While reveling in the Annoyance (122) (Disenchantment), Disapproval (139) (Krapopolis) and Contempt (138) (The Simpsons) engendered by the goofy protagonists, fans lean forward for the Surprise (121) (Family Guy), Anticipation (131) (American Dad!), and Amazement (119) (Rick and Morty) brought on by the clever humor written at their expense.

What do these two new series share with other animated comedies?
Comedy derived from flawed relationships. Successful series in this genre lean hard into irreverent and exaggerated Adult Humor, Awkward Misadventures, Over-the-Top Gags, and Parody to keep viewers giggling through a host of what are, at heart, some all-too-relatable real-world situations: Parenting Problems (122) (Family Guy), On-Again/Off-Again Relationships (130) (BoJack Horseman), Family Disagreements (134) (Rick and Morty), maladjusted Family Life (135) (American Dad!), and Dysfunctional Relationships (133) (Archer). Both Captain Fall (unhealthy Family Relationships, 145) and Krapopolis (Family Dysfunction, 160) follow the same path.

What makes Captain Fall stand out?
Thrills and danger. In addition to comedy, the series boasts elements of the Western (125), Crime (117), Adventure (117), and Action (115) genres thanks to the ruthless, trigger-happy smugglers surrounding the show’s clueless hero. The Criminal Organization (130)’s Conspiracy & Cover-Ups (132)–they’ve set the good Captain up to take the fall for their Piracy (128)–are major drivers for both bingeability and longevity.

What will lure viewers to Krapopolis?
Its ancient Greece setting. By including Greek gods and mythical creatures in its ruling class, the show delves into Fantasy (134) and Sci-Fi (125) alongside its more reality-based dysfunctional family humor. The Tough Decisions (136) they face as they attempt to build a civilization from scratch–plus their devious Scheming (160) against friends and enemies alike–will be crucial for boosting the show’s ratings.

 

On September 10, AMC will premiere the much-anticipated sixth series in its expansive Walking Dead universe; it follows Daryl–a fan-favorite character from the mothership show–as he journeys across a turbulent, zombie-ravaged France. We took a look at the drivers behind the entire Walking Dead franchise with the release of The Walking Dead: Dead City back in June; this time, we’re exploring where the newest show fits within the recent trend of sweeping, broad-in-scope post-apocalyptic dramas.

Here’s what you need to know about The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this latest Walking Dead series?
We’re predicting a cable TV audience that leans male (55%) and is heavily older (90% aged 35+), while those streaming on AMC+ will be younger (40% <30) and mostly male (69%). This viewership pattern closely mirrors fellow zombie thrillers The Walking Dead: Dead City and The Last of Us, which places these shows between post-pandemic dramas See and Station Eleven (relatively gender-balanced) and the action-heavy DMZ (heavily male).

What’s the common draw for this type of show?
Life-or-death stakes and tight-knit bonds. These dystopian dramas tend to feature a Dangerous Mission (152) (Daryl Dixon) across a treacherous landscape of Tribal Warfare (138) (DMZ) in a World Turned Upside-Down (114) (Station Eleven), with the heroes’ Lives in Danger (133) (The Last of Us) and dependent on their wits and Survival Skills (135) (Dead City); the suspense leaves viewers on the edge of their seats. At the same time, such intense circumstances lead to intense relationships, where bonds new and old (Partnerships, 132, The Last of Us; Adopted Family, 151, See; Motherhood, 113, DMZ; Unlikely Friendships, 132, Daryl Dixon) become all that truly matter.

What will set Daryl Dixon apart?
A softer touch. This series (or its trailer, at least) takes a lighter tone than most, suggesting a very different audience experience. While shows like Dead City, See, and DMZ traffic in Fear (137), Aggressiveness (116), Loathing (130), and Vigilance (111), Daryl is tinged with Optimism (115) as the titular protagonist bonds with a young boy thrust into his care. Similarly, Daryl has fewer outright Horror (113) elements than Dead City (121) or The Last of Us (118), instead playing up tropes of the Western (128) genre with a lone hero standing his ground for Honor (117).

What will differentiate Daryl Dixon from the previous Walking Dead spin-off?
A single protagonist, a clean break and a mystery. While both follow characters long familiar to fans, Dead City picks up where original series The Walking Dead left off, creating a long-anticipated Team Up (132) between a pair of compelling former enemies. In contrast, Daryl Dixon breaks away from The Walking Dead’s story entirely, thrusting its lone, hardened Tough Guy (111) lead into A New Beginning (115) on an entirely different continent. The puzzle of Daryl’s journey (Hidden Truth, 123)–he doesn’t know how he ended up in France–also adds a hook for both longevity and social buzz. Daryl Dixon’s international backdrop, however (Non-US Setting, 106) will not prove as strong of a driver as Dead City’s post-apocalyptic New York (NYC Setting, 121).

 

Star Denzel Washington and director Antoine Fuqua are once again joining forces this September with the third and final chapter of Sony’s The Equalizer film franchise. When it releases, the Equalizer IP will become especially notable for having two different versions running at the same time: the theatrical film and the CBS TV series starring Queen Latifah.

Here’s what you need to know about The Equalizer 3 and its TV cousin:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Will the TV show’s viewers turn out for this new movie? 
Probably not. We’re predicting a male-skewing (59%), largely older (69% aged 30+), and highly diverse (25% Black / 20% Latino) theatrical audience for The Equalizer 3, while viewership for CBS’s series–in keeping with overall broadcast TV viewing patterns–is heavily female (61%) and almost exclusively older (95% aged 35+). We’re also seeing a low fan score (72) for the movie among TV series viewers, suggesting limited potential for overlap; instead, fans of John Wick (112) as well as the two previous Equalizer films (113) will be much more enthusiastic.

What do the TV series and film have in common?
Their central hero. Both Washington and Latifah portray a variation of the role first popularized in the original 80s TV show: a highly-skilled ex-government agent driven to fight injustice, right wrongs, and protect the innocent. In The Equalizer 3, Washington’s Robert McCall must take matters into his own hands (Vigilante Justice, 126) to protect a community he loves (Personal Stakes, 150) from the Sicilian Mafia, creating an Action-Packed (144) extravaganza. In CBS’s The Equalizer, Latifah’s Robyn McCall feels compelled to atone for past sins (Road to Redemption, 127) by putting her talents toward Fighting Crime (111) and rescuing the helpless, similarly upping the ante with Action & Violence (138) throughout.

What makes the TV show unique?
More character moments. With a season’s worth of hours to fill, CBS’s The Equalizer is able to go deeper, diving into its hero’s personal life and exploring her role as a dedicated Single Parent (142) while juggling a day job as a badass female operative (Strong Female Protagonist, 119). The show also populates the world around her, adding a bigger focus on surrounding characters like the Investigators & Detectives (137) germane to Solving the Murders (131) that crop up on a weekly basis.

What will set this new movie apart?
Lots of violence and an international backdrop. Unlike its CBS cousin, The Equalizer 3 is rated R, and it leverages its much-bigger-than-TV budget to revel in the fierce Bloody Violence (118) of righteous vigilante justice in front of a gorgeous Italian Setting (159). Indeed, the film’s top two attributes are Violent (123) and Bloody/Gory (119), and fans will be on the edge of their seats for its intense thrill ride.

Is the underlying IP important to either format?
Definitely. The overall Equalizer brand name is a key viewership driver for both the TV series (IP Extension, 117) and the upcoming film (Final Chapter, 160), with the latter’s ticket sales particularly hanging on the fact that it’s the last entry in an exciting trilogy.

 

Tomorrow, Netflix will release a three-part documentary series on the notorious celebrity defamation case that gripped the world, spawned thousands of memes, and became the first “trial by TikTok.” The series will present litigants Amber Heard and Johnny Depp’s jarring testimonies side-by-side while exploring the striking impact of social media on truth and justice in today’s society.

Here’s what you need to know about Depp v. Heard:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this courtroom-based documentary? 
We’re predicting an audience that leans female (54%) and is mostly older (68% aged 30+), the same general profile of true crime fans watching shows like The Jinx, The Trials of Gabriel Hernandez, Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel, and The Way Down.

Why will audiences want to press play?
For the can’t-look-away intrigue. The real-life Courtroom Drama (160) of the infamous he-said/she-said civil trial and the Secrets & Lies (138) revealed as each side’s lawyers tried to catch the other in a falsehood will prove irresistible to viewers, even as the documentary itself pursues a more critical angle. These elements are also what people will be talking about online (again).

What will keep viewers watching?
Sarcastic Humor (122). The show’s bingeability will be driven by the comedic awkwardness of the trial itself as well as the funny off-the-cuff remarks made by both parties on the stand. In addition, the documentary will highlight the snarky wit of the accompanying online commentary as it explores users’ reactions on social media.

What type of story will the documentary be telling?
An inside look at a marriage gone bad. After all the melodrama, the relatability of Depp and Heard’s troubled Married Life (120) is the second most-crucial viewership driver for this limited series. Depictions of their difficult Personal Backstories (119) and Dysfunctional Relationship (118) spiraling into alleged Domestic Abuse (119) will help make both celebrities feel very real and human.

How important is the fame of the litigants?
Somewhat. The household-name status of Depp in particular adds flavor to the proceedings–his Stardom (117) and public Scandal (115) are indeed viewership draws–but it’s the personal details drawn out in the case that will ultimately prove more crucial to the ratings. In this, Depp v. Heard fits in with other A-list-focused unscripted series where the details of the subjects’ lives, families, and personalities are more important than their general societal prominence: the Mother-Child Relationships (120) in The Kardashians, Magic Johnson’s Charisma & Confidence (125) in They Call Me Magic, the Coach-Athlete Relationship (120) in Neymar: The Perfect Chaos, and the band’s Camaraderie (125) in The Beatles: Get Back.

 

While many big-name film stars have gotten their starts on broadcast TV, already-established movie actors–especially of Oscar caliber–taking a lead role on a Big 4 network series has historically been less common. But that seems to be changing. A number of Oscar winners have lately been taking their talents to the small screen. CBS’s Matlock, coming later this season, will soon join this illustrious list; the show stars Kathy Bates (Oscar winner for Misery) in a reimagining of the beloved 80’s legal drama of the same name.

Here’s what you need to know about Matlock and this ongoing trend:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

What type of audience typically follows these actors to TV? 
Older women. Broadcast TV caters heavily to a female 35+ viewership, and it’s no coincidence that the actors following this path tend to fall into the same demographic. Thus, series such as So Help Me Todd (starring Marcia Gay Harden), Mr. Mayor (Holly Hunter), Life in Pieces (Dianne Wiest), The Exorcist (Geena Davis), and Alaska Daily (Hilary Swank) all skew mostly female (62-70%) and almost exclusively older (90-95% aged 35+, with the majority aged 55+), and Matlock will be no exception.

How do these series attract such high-quality actors?
They offer juicy, drama-filled roles. While still meeting broadcast TV content standards, these dramas and comedies alike manage to create nuanced, challenging characters that hit both emotional highs and lows, giving their feted stars a chance to shine: Grief (135) and Love (135) (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Mary Steenburgen), Contempt (130) and Acceptance (135) (The Thing About Pam, Renée Zellweger), Awe (125) and Fear (121) (The Exorcist, Geena Davis), Anger (122) and Optimism (118) (Life in Pieces, Dianne Wiest).

Does the Oscar winner’s involvement help generate buzz?
Generally not. While these high-caliber actors have their fans, viewers are typically more focused on a story’s specifics when deciding what they’ll talk about online. However, the inclusion of a particularly big star can sometimes boost a series; The Thing About Pam (Renée Zellweger) and Monarch (Susan Sarandon) both maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) around their release, as their marketing campaigns focused heavily on their (temporary, in Monarch’s case) leading ladies.

What do these shows tend to have in common?
Crime-solving, workplace relationships, and a forceful matriarch. Oscar winners aside, these series typically fall in line with the general overall trends of network TV, meaning that they often showcase the Criminal Justice System (So Help Me Todd, Marcia Gay Harden; The Thing About Pam, Renée Zellweger; Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, Forest Whitaker) and play up quirky or contentious Workplace Dynamics (Mr. Mayor, Holly Hunter; Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Mary Steenburgen). When the Oscar winner in question is also playing an assertive woman in power, their show also offers up a Strong Female Protagonist (So Help Me Todd, The Thing About Pam) and/or a Strong Mother character (Monarch, Susan Sarandon).

What will be Matlock’s appeal?
Its titular character. When Kathy Bates takes the reins of the Matlock reboot, her forceful septuagenarian lawyer will be the key to both the series’ ratings and bingeability and take full advantage of her statuette-winning star power. Viewers will be drawn in by her deliciously clever Scheming (149), impressive Ambition & Drive (142), and righteous Search for the Truth (134) to expose corporate corruption and white collar criminality. As with other recent series starring female Oscar winners, the fact that she’s a Female Professional (122), in this case one seeking A New Beginning (146), will also be a top viewership driver (and more important than the show’s links to the original male-led Matlock (IP Extension, 112)).

 

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding