Rapid Insights: ‘The Waterfront’ Reveals the Trick to Masking Gritty Drama as Soap

Netflix recently released an addictive, attention-grabbing new series that, more than a month after its premiere, is still going strong, heading the streamer’s top ten list and generating considerable buzz. From the creator of Dawson’s Creek and The Vampire Diaries, this new series straddles the line between gritty crime and soapy melodrama and follows a seemingly affluent and put-together North Carolina fishing family that actually hides treacherous lies and messy dark secrets.

Here’s what you need to know about The Waterfront:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Which of the show’s two genres is most influencing its appeal? 
Moral crime drama. We’re seeing a gender-balanced audience (50% men) of those 30+ (80%)–a much closer match for the world of anti-hero crime thrillers than soapy family melodramas. Shows like Ozark, Yellowstone and Animal Kingdom all maintain a similar gender balance, while series that lean more into tumultuous, twist-filled family relationships (Revenge, Nashville, This Is Us, Bloodline, A Million Little Things, and even the creator’s own Dawson’s Creek and The Vampire Diaries) all appeal more heavily to women.

Are these crime-based elements propelling the show’s ratings? 
Absolutely. The show’s top five ratings drivers all center around the affluent Buckley family’s descent into organized crime (Criminal Organization, 160; Crime Family, 146) as they attempt to save their one-proud empire from spiraling into decay. Outwardly respected business moguls whose family has dominated the North Carolina fishing industry for generations, the current crop of Buckleys will do anything to preserve this at-risk legacy, turning to High Stakes (136) smuggling, Drug Dealing (134), and worse for ever-higher and riskier payouts (Avarice & Greed, 128) as fishing becomes increasingly unreliable as a source of wealth. The Waterfront joins similar gritty crime dramas (e.g. MobLandPeaky Blinders) in leaning on its less-than-legal underworld elements to pull in audiences.

Where does the family drama piece come in? 
It inspires bingeability. While viewers may be tuning in for the Buckleys’ fledgling criminal empire, they’re staying glued to their screens for the family’s interpersonal clashes, toxic melodramas, deep-seated Marital Problems (125), and soapy Family Legacy (112). The secrets of this toughened, hardened clan (Tough Guys, 151) provide plenty of fodder for relationship twists and turns throughout the show’s first season, especially in the wake of their Life Changing Decision (116) to become involved in crime. The binge-driving emotional experience of Surprise (119) is also gripping audiences, who are eager to see the storyline zig and zag.

How is the show’s social buzz? 
Very impressive. For the first four weeks of its release, The Waterfront held a consistent (160) on our social buzz meter, maxing out our top measured level of chatter for a length of time exceeding most comps. While online activity has since dipped very slightly, it’s still hanging out near the top of “outstanding” territory at (150), promising continued buzz for weeks to come. The star-studded crime thriller MobLand saw a similar streak of social virality after its release back in March.

What will help propel The Waterfront into a second season? 
The chance the Buckleys will get caught. Among the show’s many secondary characters is a DEA agent sniffing around the family’s drug smuggling, and, along with the stresses inherent in Working with Family (117) on such an illegal enterprise, the potential for a Criminal Investigation (114) with Emotions Running High (114) will help maintain the suspense and stakes across future seasons.

Introducing Genre DNA™


Redefine your understanding of TV subgenres

Introducing Genre DNA™ – TV subgenres redefined by groundbreaking AI analysis to reveal the true drivers of viewership.

See the insights that others can’t

Genre DNA™ goes beyond traditional TV genre classifications by analyzing over 1,000 scripted and unscripted series on both linear and SVOD platforms from the last 5 years.

Each Vault Genre DNA™ report offers a precise analysis of your chosen TV subgenre, uncovering its unique drivers of viewership.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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Rapid Insights: ‘Nautilus’ Makes a Strong Case for Reinventing IP Instead of Reviving It

AMC recently premiered an exciting new adventure series that has been generating considerable buzz and netting impressive viewership numbers for the network. A reimagining of Jules Verne’s 1870 novel Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea, the show creates an origin story for the enigmatic Captain Nemo as an Indian prince-turned-rebel slave-turned-crusading scientist who captures and pilots the Nautilus submersible.

Here’s what you need to know about Nautilus:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s been watching this new aquatic adventure show? 
We’re seeing an audience that leans toward men (55%) and is heavily older, both on linear AMC (90% aged 35+, with the largest demo 55+) and streaming AMC+ (78% aged 30+, with the largest demo 45+). This viewership matches other linear-based historical adventure epics like VikingsBlack SailsInto the BadlandsThe Last Kingdom, and The Librarians: The Next Chapter. (Notably, genre entrants that originate on streaming–Shōgun, Marco Polo–tend to land a bit younger overall.)

What’s the series’ biggest draw? 
Its odd couple pairing. At the heart of the show is the ‘opposites attract’ energy between the mercurial, secretive Nemo and the privileged, stubborn Humility Lucas, a woman forcibly taken aboard after the Nautilus collided with her ship. Though initially adversaries from very different backgrounds, the pair ultimately forges an Unlikely Friendship (145) as their adventures progress, and it’s this element that spurs the most dynamic character growth and propels all four of our key metrics: ratings, bingeability, social buzz, and longevity.

What else is pulling in viewers? 
The crew’s interactions. Nemo and his Nautilus companions (save Humility Lucas) start the show as prisoners of the East India Mercantile Company, sentenced to hard labor constructing the firm’s powerful new submarine. Through a carefully-planned uprising (Rebels, 122), they succeed in taking over the vessel and sail to freedom in the open seas, refashioning what was intended as a war machine into a ship of exploration and scientific discovery. Audiences are tuning in for this motley crew’s compelling Team Dynamics (112) as brothers-in-arms and now deep-water sailors, and to see them clash and cooperate as they take the Nautilus on new adventures. Interestingly, the series’ connection to the famous classic novel does not appear anywhere in its list of top drivers, possibly because nearly all of its characters and storylines were invented fresh for the show.

What’s keeping audiences watching? 
Adventure and suspense. The show’s exhilarating, swashbuckling sense of Outdoor Adventure (122) couples well with the heightened stakes of the crew’s Dangerous Mission (119): to avoid capture and death at the hands of the sinister East India Mercantile Company officers hot on their trail. This overall tone of excitement, helped along by the Action & Violence (119) marking each deep-sea peril and hero-to-villain confrontation, is keeping viewers on the edge of their seats.

What landed best in the show’s native UK and Australia? 
Humility and adventure but not the wider crew. Produced in Britain and filmed Down Under, Nautilus boasts the same overall top driver in these markets as it does in the US: the spark-filled Unlikely Friendship (125 AU; 120 UK) between Nemo and Humility Lucas. The show’s broader sense of Outdoor Adventure (121 AU; 119 UK) is also crucial in driving ratings, bingeability, and social buzz in both markets. However, the Team Dynamics (87 AU; 87 UK) and Rebel (102 AU; 102 UK) status of Nemo and his crewmates that are so important to American audiences are not nearly as interesting to viewers here, who instead seem to prefer a narrower story focus on the two ‘odd couple’ protagonists.

Introducing Genre DNA™


Redefine your understanding of TV subgenres

Introducing Genre DNA™ – TV subgenres redefined by groundbreaking AI analysis to reveal the true drivers of viewership.

See the insights that others can’t

Genre DNA™ goes beyond traditional TV genre classifications by analyzing over 1,000 scripted and unscripted series on both linear and SVOD platforms from the last 5 years.

Each Vault Genre DNA™ report offers a precise analysis of your chosen TV subgenre, uncovering its unique drivers of viewership.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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Rapid Insights: ‘Stick’ Makes a Case for Mentorship as Sports TV’s Secret Weapon

Apple TV+ recently released a quirky new lighthearted sports dramedy that, halfway through its first-season run, continues to top the streamer’s weekly most-watched list and drive plenty of buzz. The show stars Owen Wilson as a washed-up ex-pro golfer who discovers a troubled teen prodigy and attempts to coach him into the big leagues, staking his own future on the boy’s success.

Here’s what you need to know about Stick:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s been tuning in for this likeable new show?
With its golf focus and midlife crisis arc, we’re seeing an audience that’s mostly men (64%) and heavily aged 30+ (71%)–a notably more off-center sweet spot than many other lighter sports-focused dramas. Comparable shows like Ted LassoCobra KaiRunning PointThe GameFriday Night Lights, All American, and Ballers appeal to a somewhat more balanced streaming viewership, both in gender (45-56% men) and age (57-67% aged 30+).

What’s pulling in viewers and driving Stick’s ratings?
Weighty topics handled with a light touch. The two characters at the heart of Stick–disgraced pro-golfer Pryce and sullen teen prodigy Santi–are dealing with fears of abandonment and low self worth thanks to past trauma. Both have Anger Issues (123) as the latter grapples with deep-rooted Teen Angst (133) and the former tries desperately to resuscitate his future (Trying to Save Career, 128), laying an effective foundation for relatable drama and true character development. At the same time, the show’s gently humorous take on their story (Awkward & Funny Moments, 141) lightens the tone and invites audiences into their world.

What’s keeping audiences glued to their screens?
Warm character dynamics. Pryce and Santi are surrounded by caring friends and family (Supportive Relationships, 134) who boost them up as needed, and the unlikely yet genuine Mentorship (119) and Male Friendship (129) that develop between the pair as they butt heads and find common ground is the show’s beating heart. Their relationship is buoyed by an optimistic, feel-good strain of comedy (Feel Good Humor, 122), and it’s the show’s unique brand of inspiring warmth that’s driving bingeability and bringing viewers back throughout the season.

What type of emotional experience are viewers looking for?
A well-rounded one. Stick’s top emotional drivers reflect both the weightiness of its characters’ trauma and the hope of their ultimate success, both in golf and in life. As Pryce and Santi experience a range of very human emotions, from the lows of self-Loathing (134) and lash-out Aggressiveness (134) to the highs of competitive Anticipation (134) and hard-won mutual Trust (134), audiences are right there with them, pulled along by the relatability of their Optimism (110)Sadness (113), and general Apprehension (134) towards life.

Where do the sports themes come in?
They help with longevity. All of the show’s specifically sports-related elements top the list of drivers that will help push Stick to a second season: its insider focus on the golfing world (Sports Focus, 120), its protagonists’ specifically Coach-Athlete Relationship (129), and its centering on a pair of rootworthy Underdogs (137) who are fighting their way to the top. Stick very much falls in line with other sports-based dramas and dramedies in this area, whose long-term story engines also tend to be fed by similar themes.

Introducing Genre DNA™


Redefine your understanding of TV subgenres

Introducing Genre DNA™ – TV subgenres redefined by groundbreaking AI analysis to reveal the true drivers of viewership.

See the insights that others can’t

Genre DNA™ goes beyond traditional TV genre classifications by analyzing over 1,000 scripted and unscripted series on both linear and SVOD platforms from the last 5 years.

Each Vault Genre DNA™ report offers a precise analysis of your chosen TV subgenre, uncovering its unique drivers of viewership.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: ‘Ironheart’ Hints at a Quiet Revolution in How We Tell Hero Stories

The number of women superheroes on TV has jumped in the past few years thanks to the broader explosion of comic book and superhero content in general. Heirs to a storied dynasty (Wonder Woman, The Bionic Woman, Xena: Warrior Princess), this most recent crop of female-led titles kicked off with Netflix’s Marvel deal (Jessica Jones), passed through DC’s Arrowverse (Supergirl, Batwoman), and broadened to additional streamers like Hulu and Disney+ (She-HulkMs. Marvel, Echo, Ahsoka). And with last week’s premiere of its newest Marvel series, Disney+ has just introduced another buzzy, compelling heroine into this impressive pantheon.

Here’s what you need to know about Ironheart and other female-led superhero shows:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Do these shows always attract the same viewers? 
No. The age and gender skew of their audiences can vary widely, from mostly men (Ironheart, She-HulkAhsoka) to primarily women (BatwomanSupergirl), and heavily 30+ (EchoJessica Jones) to largely <30 (Ms. Marvel). This variation likely reflects the wide range of tones, subgenres, and violence levels incorporated into these series, each of which has a different appeal. For Ironheart, we’re seeing a viewership that’s 60% men and 58% aged 30+, aligning most closely with fellow Disney+ entry She-Hulk.

Is it important to these shows’ success that their superheroes are women? 
Not like it used to be. For the DC and Marvel series that premiered several years ago, the fact that they were led by powerful heroines rather than much more typical male protagonists was one of their very top viewership drivers (Strong Female Character, 151 – Batwoman (2019); Strong Female Protagonist, 148 – Jessica Jones (2015)). However, as both universes expanded and female superheroes happily became more common–both on TV and in theaters–their gender became less important. The more recent shows in each canon instead pull in viewers based on the nuances of their own specific stories and character development; the fact that they’re helmed by women doesn’t even appear among their key drivers.

What does spur ratings among the more recent female-led series? 
Superhero excitement and relatable characters. As with their male-led counterparts, shows like Ms. Marvel, Echo, She-HulkAhsoka, and Ironheart trade heavily on their Stylized Action & Violence, heightened suspense (Life in Danger, Dangerous Mission), cool and imaginative Superpowers, and broader universe connections (Marvel Universe, Star Wars Universe) to get fans pumped and eager to watch. And underlying this layer of Action and Adventure is a broad base of emotional heart as these characters must navigate Family RelationshipsFamily ConflictEmotional Turmoil, Friendships, and, in one case, Teen Angst, making it easy for viewers to sympathize and connect.

What’s setting Ironheart apart from the other Marvel shows? 
Journey of Self Discovery (160). Though Ironheart is a superhero origin story just like many of its brethren, this version focuses on a frustrated teenage genius eager to be recognized for her skills and put her own stamp on the world, and its unique viewership drivers–beyond the action and Marvel connections–all revolve around her personal growth. The show tracks protagonist Riri, first introduced in the second Black Panther film, as she grapples with Tough Decisions (135), works to Overcome Adversity (126) (lack of funds, MIT expulsion, personal loss), and ultimately rises to the occasion, both emotionally and through her crime-fighting tech advancements (Stepping Up, 124; Bettering Oneself, 128). Riri is also a heroine who, like her idol Iron Man, invents her own superpowered capabilities rather than develops them supernaturally (as in Ms. Marvel, She-HulkEcho, and Jessica Jones).

What’s the buzz potential for these superhero series? 
Extremely high. Thanks to the widespread popularity of their respective universes, these female-led series–just like their male-led counterparts–can spur tremendous chatter online, especially the more recent entries. Whereas ten years ago, shows in this genre took a bit longer to catch on and build word of mouth (e.g. 2015’s Jessica Jones, which didn’t really hit its stride until T+40 days after release), Ms. MarvelEchoShe-Hulk, Ahsoka, and now Ironheart (all released since 2022) immediately maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) with their premiere and remained there for a number of weeks.

Introducing Genre DNA™


Redefine your understanding of TV subgenres

Introducing Genre DNA™ – TV subgenres redefined by groundbreaking AI analysis to reveal the true drivers of viewership.

See the insights that others can’t

Genre DNA™ goes beyond traditional TV genre classifications by analyzing over 1,000 scripted and unscripted series on both linear and SVOD platforms from the last 5 years.

Each Vault Genre DNA™ report offers a precise analysis of your chosen TV subgenre, uncovering its unique drivers of viewership.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

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