Rapid Insights: Sheridan’s 1923 Expands the Yellowstone Universe Further

This coming Sunday, Paramount+ is set to premiere Taylor Sheridan’s upcoming series 1923, the prequel series to Yellowstone and sequel to 1883. Two additional spin-offs — 6666 and 1883: The Bass Reeves Story — have also already been ordered. The franchise follows different generations of the fictional Dutton family who own the Yellowstone ranch in Montana, and in this upcoming spin-off, they’ll face challenges related to the rise of Western expansion, Prohibition, and the Great Depression. Here’s what you need to know about 1923 and the Yellowstone franchise:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this new prequel series?
For the series’ debut, we’re predicting a male skewing audience (57%) that leans older (70% aged 30+), a profile nearly identical to Yellowstone (55% male and 71% 30+, SVOD) and 1883 (59% male and 70% 30+). Sheridan’s other series outside the Yellowstone franchise have similar demographics, like Tulsa King (61% male and 66% 30+) and Mayor of Kingstown (58% male and 66% 30+). Sheridan knows his target audience, and all his series fit the bill.

What unifies the three Yellowstone franchise series?
The Dutton family. At the heart of this franchise are the different generations of Duttons and the portrayal of Family Life (141) on the Yellowstone ranch. In 1923, Helen Mirren and Harrison Ford assume the leading roles of wife Cara and husband Jacob Dutton.

What separates the three series from one another?
All three series each have their own niche. 1923 is all about the Action & Violence (160). This spin-off will be jam-packed with Gun Violence (160) and Confrontation (158), showcasing the Dutton family’s unparalleled Bravery (151). The franchise’s first prequel, 1883, focuses in on A New Beginning (154) for the Dutton family — the Dangerous Mission (160) westward that led them to settle in Montana. And lastly, the franchise’s original series Yellowstone lays the groundwork by establishing family dynamics, from themes of Working with Family (148), to Family Tension (144), to preserving a Family Legacy (123).

What kind of story will 1923 be telling?
A dynamic one. The series will fuse together elements of Western (153)War (140), and History (136) genres, all the while spanning a broad spectrum of emotions such as Rage (158) and Disgust (158) and desires like Tranquility (160) and Power (160).

What does the online chatter look like? 
Excited. Fans of the franchise are eagerly awaiting this new spin-off (IP Extension, 142), with spikes in social activity on our buzz meter, jumping to (128) with the teaser trailer’s drop and peaking at (133) with the official trailer’s drop.

What will drive 1923 into its second season?
The series’ time period. While the Dutton family is fictional, the series addresses important pieces of American History (139) within the era of Western expansion, Prohibition, and the Great Depression. The Dutton family is the vehicle through which the perspective of Struggling (124) Americans of the 1920s is portrayed.

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*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

Rapid Insights: Super Mario Bros Will 1-Up the Competition by Bringing a Beloved Gaming Franchise to the Big Screen

For the first time since 1993’s infamous live-action interpretation, plumber twins Mario and Luigi will be returning to the silver screen next April in Universal Pictures’ full-length CGI adventure, and the buzz is already through the roof. Audiences have taken early notice of the film’s perfectly polished animation, stellar voice cast, and nods to defining elements across the range of Mario-based video games (from Super Mario Bros. to Super Smash Bros. to Mario Kart), and they’re beyond excited to see one of their favorite childhood franchises brought to life. Here’s what you need to know about The Super Mario Bros. Movie:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will show up in theaters for this cartoon adventure?
We’re predicting a younger-skewing audience (57% <30) with a heavy family component (25% <18) and a slight lean towards males (53%). Demand is expected to be strong across key demos, with those under 30 falling in the “outstanding” range (138) and teen boys especially eager to buy tickets (153).

What’s the movie’s biggest draw?
Its Famous Franchise (121). The IP and its familiar characters have been beloved by Nintendo players for almost forty years, and they’re eager to see Mario and twin brother Luigi once again Saving the World (114) from arch-nemesis Bowser and his army of Koopas. Viewers want to see the transport pipes, fire flowers, power-granting suits, Rainbow Road, and other trappings of the games’ Fantasy Land (112) on the big screen as well as the dynamic Animated Action (116) of the heroes’ ongoing battle for the Mushroom Kingdom. This aspect of the film will be especially popular for younger theatergoers under 30.

What’s the impact of the increased role for Princess Peach?
A stronger appeal to older females. Whereas the original video games relegated Peach to the role of damsel in distress, the new movie places her front and center alongside Mario and Luigi in the middle of the action. Her greater agency within the fight against Bowser transforms her into the type of Strong Female Character (112) that helps draw in women 30+ (126).

Where does the movie’s funny tone fit in?
It’s a major draw for teens. The moments of Slapstick physical Comedy (112) and goofy humor, as when Mario falls off the platform and is hit in the face by a sucker fish, add to the film’s sense of unruly fun and engage younger viewers (160) much more than the cartoon action would alone.

How important is the movie’s voice cast?
Essential in driving online chatter. Twitter has been increasingly abuzz about this movie since last week’s official trailer drop, and the names of the core cast appear alongside the long-running video game characters in the list of top terms tweeted. While Chris Pratt (voicing Mario), Seth Rogan (Donkey Kong), and Anya Taylor-Joy (Princess Peach) all factor into the conversation, fans seem especially excited for Jack Black’s energetic turn as villain Bowser. Additionally, the part of the trailer in which Donkey Kong repeatedly slaps Mario has become an oft-shared viral meme.

Introducing Our NEW Research Series

Months in the making, this brand new three part research series analyzes all recently released and in-development movie titles to uncover the trends that you need to know. It puts you in complete control, knowing what the movie market will look like so you know what moves to make. It’s full of juicy data that’ll help you understand where content is heading and what the streamers are looking to buy.

Check out The Future of Movies here.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox weekly.

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About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

Rapid Insights: The Bad Guy Centers on a Darkly Funny Mafia Revenge Story

Vault recently acquired a number of international data sets to round out our global market capabilities, and in honor of this new expansion, this week we wanted to spotlight an intriguing new Italian dramedy releasing worldwide Thursday on Amazon Prime. Arising from the streamer’s recent local production ramp-up in the country, the series revolves around a staunchly anti-Mafia Sicilian prosecutor named Nino Scotellaro who finds himself wrongfully convicted of working for the very criminal organization he despises. Here’s what you need to know about The Bad Guy:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who in the US will be tuning in for this new series?
For the show’s American debut, we’re predicting a heavily male audience (65%) that leans older (57% aged 30+), a profile nearly identical to the streaming viewership of similar pitch-black, male-led dramedies The Boys and Barry.

What type of show is The Bad Guy?
A gritty cocktail with a twist of dark humor. The series starts with a Crime (133) Thriller (110) base derived from its Mafia milieu, adds flavors of Action (114) and Western (122) pulled from its protagonist’s thirst for revenge, and finishes it off with a hint of Comedy (92) squeezed from his increasingly questionable decisions as his vengeance snowballs.

What will draw in American viewers?
Scotellaro’s Machiavellian plot. The protagonist’s decision to Seeka complicated yet satisfying Revenge (146)against those who falsely accused him, a risky path that places his Life in Danger (123), is the top driver of interest among US audiences and generates a compelling sense of suspense and intrigue. The show’s localized depiction of the Sicilian Mafia (Criminal Organization, 142) also stands out domestically.

Which aspect of the show will appeal in its native Italy?
Scotellaro’s reversal of fortune. While, like Americans, Italians will be drawn to the show’s Mafia aspects and its protagonist’s revenge plot, they’re also uniquely pulled toward the lawyer’s Life-Changing Decision (127) that will alter his trajectory and sink him ever farther into moral ambiguity. After the wrongful guilty verdict costs him everything he has, Scotellaro decides to transform from upstanding public prosecutor into the very type of ‘bad guy’ he once pursued.

What aspects of the series are fresh for US and Italian audiences? 
Across the board, Dark Humor (135 US, 159 IT). Both US and Italian audiences will be amused by the twisted, comedic nature of the series which separates it from other crime thrillers. Among Italian audiences, elements of suspense and action-filled thrills – Seeking Revenge (153)Life-Changing Decision (145), and Dangerous Mission (142) – will excite most.

What could help The Bad Guy land a second season?
Its unique viewpoint. The show is narrated from The Accused’s POV (129), providing the audience with an intimate look at Scotellaro’s perspective as a once-esteemed lawyer now reviled as a falsely-convicted felon. This narrative choice allows viewers to connect with the show’s protagonist and provides fodder for his continuing story. At the same time, the Action & Violence (129) that undergirds his storyline will help keep the series’ predominantly male audiences interested for future seasons.

Introducing Our NEW Research Series

Months in the making, this brand new three part research series analyzes all recently released and in-development movie titles to uncover the trends that you need to know. It puts you in complete control, knowing what the movie market will look like so you know what moves to make. It’s full of juicy data that’ll help you understand where content is heading and what the streamers are looking to buy.

Check out The Future of Movies here.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault AI’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox weekly.

Sign up for StoryGuide for more details and analysis.

About Vault AI

Based in Los Angeles and Israel, Vault AI is using a combination of machine learning and consumer insights experts to help the entertainment industry predict consumer response to content. Test your content faster and more accurately with Vault AI and get granular insights across the entire content life cycle today.

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