Month: August 2023

Star Denzel Washington and director Antoine Fuqua are once again joining forces this September with the third and final chapter of Sony’s The Equalizer film franchise. When it releases, the Equalizer IP will become especially notable for having two different versions running at the same time: the theatrical film and the CBS TV series starring Queen Latifah.

Here’s what you need to know about The Equalizer 3 and its TV cousin:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Will the TV show’s viewers turn out for this new movie? 
Probably not. We’re predicting a male-skewing (59%), largely older (69% aged 30+), and highly diverse (25% Black / 20% Latino) theatrical audience for The Equalizer 3, while viewership for CBS’s series–in keeping with overall broadcast TV viewing patterns–is heavily female (61%) and almost exclusively older (95% aged 35+). We’re also seeing a low fan score (72) for the movie among TV series viewers, suggesting limited potential for overlap; instead, fans of John Wick (112) as well as the two previous Equalizer films (113) will be much more enthusiastic.

What do the TV series and film have in common?
Their central hero. Both Washington and Latifah portray a variation of the role first popularized in the original 80s TV show: a highly-skilled ex-government agent driven to fight injustice, right wrongs, and protect the innocent. In The Equalizer 3, Washington’s Robert McCall must take matters into his own hands (Vigilante Justice, 126) to protect a community he loves (Personal Stakes, 150) from the Sicilian Mafia, creating an Action-Packed (144) extravaganza. In CBS’s The Equalizer, Latifah’s Robyn McCall feels compelled to atone for past sins (Road to Redemption, 127) by putting her talents toward Fighting Crime (111) and rescuing the helpless, similarly upping the ante with Action & Violence (138) throughout.

What makes the TV show unique?
More character moments. With a season’s worth of hours to fill, CBS’s The Equalizer is able to go deeper, diving into its hero’s personal life and exploring her role as a dedicated Single Parent (142) while juggling a day job as a badass female operative (Strong Female Protagonist, 119). The show also populates the world around her, adding a bigger focus on surrounding characters like the Investigators & Detectives (137) germane to Solving the Murders (131) that crop up on a weekly basis.

What will set this new movie apart?
Lots of violence and an international backdrop. Unlike its CBS cousin, The Equalizer 3 is rated R, and it leverages its much-bigger-than-TV budget to revel in the fierce Bloody Violence (118) of righteous vigilante justice in front of a gorgeous Italian Setting (159). Indeed, the film’s top two attributes are Violent (123) and Bloody/Gory (119), and fans will be on the edge of their seats for its intense thrill ride.

Is the underlying IP important to either format?
Definitely. The overall Equalizer brand name is a key viewership driver for both the TV series (IP Extension, 117) and the upcoming film (Final Chapter, 160), with the latter’s ticket sales particularly hanging on the fact that it’s the last entry in an exciting trilogy.

 

Tomorrow, Netflix will release a three-part documentary series on the notorious celebrity defamation case that gripped the world, spawned thousands of memes, and became the first “trial by TikTok.” The series will present litigants Amber Heard and Johnny Depp’s jarring testimonies side-by-side while exploring the striking impact of social media on truth and justice in today’s society.

Here’s what you need to know about Depp v. Heard:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this courtroom-based documentary? 
We’re predicting an audience that leans female (54%) and is mostly older (68% aged 30+), the same general profile of true crime fans watching shows like The Jinx, The Trials of Gabriel Hernandez, Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel, and The Way Down.

Why will audiences want to press play?
For the can’t-look-away intrigue. The real-life Courtroom Drama (160) of the infamous he-said/she-said civil trial and the Secrets & Lies (138) revealed as each side’s lawyers tried to catch the other in a falsehood will prove irresistible to viewers, even as the documentary itself pursues a more critical angle. These elements are also what people will be talking about online (again).

What will keep viewers watching?
Sarcastic Humor (122). The show’s bingeability will be driven by the comedic awkwardness of the trial itself as well as the funny off-the-cuff remarks made by both parties on the stand. In addition, the documentary will highlight the snarky wit of the accompanying online commentary as it explores users’ reactions on social media.

What type of story will the documentary be telling?
An inside look at a marriage gone bad. After all the melodrama, the relatability of Depp and Heard’s troubled Married Life (120) is the second most-crucial viewership driver for this limited series. Depictions of their difficult Personal Backstories (119) and Dysfunctional Relationship (118) spiraling into alleged Domestic Abuse (119) will help make both celebrities feel very real and human.

How important is the fame of the litigants?
Somewhat. The household-name status of Depp in particular adds flavor to the proceedings–his Stardom (117) and public Scandal (115) are indeed viewership draws–but it’s the personal details drawn out in the case that will ultimately prove more crucial to the ratings. In this, Depp v. Heard fits in with other A-list-focused unscripted series where the details of the subjects’ lives, families, and personalities are more important than their general societal prominence: the Mother-Child Relationships (120) in The Kardashians, Magic Johnson’s Charisma & Confidence (125) in They Call Me Magic, the Coach-Athlete Relationship (120) in Neymar: The Perfect Chaos, and the band’s Camaraderie (125) in The Beatles: Get Back.

 

While many big-name film stars have gotten their starts on broadcast TV, already-established movie actors–especially of Oscar caliber–taking a lead role on a Big 4 network series has historically been less common. But that seems to be changing. A number of Oscar winners have lately been taking their talents to the small screen. CBS’s Matlock, coming later this season, will soon join this illustrious list; the show stars Kathy Bates (Oscar winner for Misery) in a reimagining of the beloved 80’s legal drama of the same name.

Here’s what you need to know about Matlock and this ongoing trend:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

What type of audience typically follows these actors to TV? 
Older women. Broadcast TV caters heavily to a female 35+ viewership, and it’s no coincidence that the actors following this path tend to fall into the same demographic. Thus, series such as So Help Me Todd (starring Marcia Gay Harden), Mr. Mayor (Holly Hunter), Life in Pieces (Dianne Wiest), The Exorcist (Geena Davis), and Alaska Daily (Hilary Swank) all skew mostly female (62-70%) and almost exclusively older (90-95% aged 35+, with the majority aged 55+), and Matlock will be no exception.

How do these series attract such high-quality actors?
They offer juicy, drama-filled roles. While still meeting broadcast TV content standards, these dramas and comedies alike manage to create nuanced, challenging characters that hit both emotional highs and lows, giving their feted stars a chance to shine: Grief (135) and Love (135) (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Mary Steenburgen), Contempt (130) and Acceptance (135) (The Thing About Pam, Renée Zellweger), Awe (125) and Fear (121) (The Exorcist, Geena Davis), Anger (122) and Optimism (118) (Life in Pieces, Dianne Wiest).

Does the Oscar winner’s involvement help generate buzz?
Generally not. While these high-caliber actors have their fans, viewers are typically more focused on a story’s specifics when deciding what they’ll talk about online. However, the inclusion of a particularly big star can sometimes boost a series; The Thing About Pam (Renée Zellweger) and Monarch (Susan Sarandon) both maxed out our social buzz meter (at 160) around their release, as their marketing campaigns focused heavily on their (temporary, in Monarch’s case) leading ladies.

What do these shows tend to have in common?
Crime-solving, workplace relationships, and a forceful matriarch. Oscar winners aside, these series typically fall in line with the general overall trends of network TV, meaning that they often showcase the Criminal Justice System (So Help Me Todd, Marcia Gay Harden; The Thing About Pam, Renée Zellweger; Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, Forest Whitaker) and play up quirky or contentious Workplace Dynamics (Mr. Mayor, Holly Hunter; Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Mary Steenburgen). When the Oscar winner in question is also playing an assertive woman in power, their show also offers up a Strong Female Protagonist (So Help Me Todd, The Thing About Pam) and/or a Strong Mother character (Monarch, Susan Sarandon).

What will be Matlock’s appeal?
Its titular character. When Kathy Bates takes the reins of the Matlock reboot, her forceful septuagenarian lawyer will be the key to both the series’ ratings and bingeability and take full advantage of her statuette-winning star power. Viewers will be drawn in by her deliciously clever Scheming (149), impressive Ambition & Drive (142), and righteous Search for the Truth (134) to expose corporate corruption and white collar criminality. As with other recent series starring female Oscar winners, the fact that she’s a Female Professional (122), in this case one seeking A New Beginning (146), will also be a top viewership driver (and more important than the show’s links to the original male-led Matlock (IP Extension, 112)).