Rapid Insights: Baby Reindeer is a Surprise Netflix Smash

Last month, Netflix premiered an under-the-radar new limited series that has turned into an unexpected smash hit, ultimately landing among the service’s most-watched programs in 90 countries and finishing up its sixth week (and counting) on the Top 10 list in the US. Based on the real-life experiences of writer/star Richard Gadd, the show traces a woman’s obsessive stalking of an aspiring comedian.

Here’s what you need to know about Baby Reindeer:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s been tuning in for this blockbuster miniseries? 
We’re seeing a viewership that’s mostly female (60%) and mostly older (64% aged 30+)–the same ‘sweet spot’ audience for other dramatized limited series based on true crimes such as The WatcherCandy, A Friend of the Family, Under the Banner of HeavenThe Staircase, Inventing Anna, and The Girl from Plainville. That said, Baby Reindeer does lean a bit younger than these other shows, which range from 69-80% aged 30+.

What caused viewers to check out the show in the first place?
Its dark subject matter. The series chronicles the unnerving Stalking (160) and horrendous Sexual Abuse (152) experienced by aspiring comedian Donny Dunn: the former by a troubled woman with mental illness, the latter by a sadistic mentor-turned-predator within the comedy world. With Donny’s sense of self and well-being Under Threat (124), the stalker’s tactics escalating, and the pressure around him mounting, audiences have been eager to see how the story will unfold.

What has kept audiences watching through the finale? 
The Emotional Roller Coaster (113). Donny’s story injects a wide range of feelings and sensations into the viewing experience, from the Anger (129) and Terror (129) of being stalked to the Grief (123) and Fear (129) of becoming an unwitting victim of abuse, the Ecstasy (129) and Joy (129) of falling in love, to the Apprehension (129) and Vigilance (129) of trying to keep that loved one safe. Throughout the show, viewers crave this experience of being put through the emotional wringer. At the same time, the fact that the show is Based on a True Story (119)–creator Gadd really was stalked by a similar woman and abused by a similar mentor–has inspired many to become amateur online detectives, leveraging the ‘evidence’ doled out in the show to try and identify these characters’ real-world counterparts.

What has caused the show’s popularity to skyrocket? 
Word of mouth. Its social tracking suggests a smash hit that truly came out of nowhere; the late-March trailer premiere made barely a ripple (hovering at an average-level (95) on our social buzz meter), and the actual episode drop on April 11 flew similarly under the radar (edging up to a still-average (99)). However, as more and more viewers found the show, its buzz started to spike, finally maxing out our meter (at an ‘outstanding’ (160)) ten days after its release; the show has seen the same level of heavy, sustained chatter ever since.

Why did viewers want to spread the word about this series? 
To share Donny’s poignant Journey of Self Discovery (112). What makes Baby Reindeer so different from other true crime-type shows is its nuanced, human take on both victim and perpetrator, largely thanks to creator Gadd’s movingly honest self-reflection. Through Donny, Gadd is able to look back on the uneasy emotional and psychological odyssey of his past, which encompassed the lowest of lows (drugs, abuse), some moments of respite (Falling in Love, 118), and finally a sense of freedom in Coming Out (111) and finding Self Acceptance (118). All the while, the dry Voice-Over Narration (129) makes audiences privy to Donny’s innermost thoughts and feelings. All are key drivers for social buzz as well as bingeability.

Missed one of our recent rapid insights? Catch up on popular titles below:
A Very Royal Scandal Sets the Standard for Prestige Drama and Real-Life Scandal
English Teacher Rewrites the Rules of School-Based Comedies
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Time Bandits Balances a Cinematic World with TV Character Depth

 

 

Introducing Genre DNA™


Redefine your understanding of TV subgenres

Introducing Genre DNA™ – TV subgenres redefined by groundbreaking AI analysis to reveal the true drivers of viewership.

See the insights that others can’t

Genre DNA™ goes beyond traditional TV genre classifications by analyzing over 1,000 scripted and unscripted series on both linear and SVOD platforms from the last 5 years.

Each Vault Genre DNA™ report offers a precise analysis of your chosen TV subgenre, uncovering its unique drivers of viewership.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

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Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

Rapid Insights: The Veil Engages with High Stakes and Global Thrills

Today, FX on Hulu is releasing the first two episodes of its compelling new spy thriller miniseries from the creator of Peaky Blinders. The show stars Elisabeth Moss as a slippery MI6 agent tasked with pursuing a suspected female terrorist and uncovering her secrets before it’s too late.

Here’s what you need to know about The Veil:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who will be tuning in for this suspenseful drama? 
We’re predicting a viewership that leans toward men (53%) and skews heavily older (74% aged 30+). This tilt towards men–potentially because of the more intense violence–makes the show somewhat unusual among the list of thrillers that heavily feature female spies: the streaming audiences for Killing EveThe Americans, Hanna, NikitaCovert Affairs, and Alias all slanted toward women.

Why will viewers want to watch?
For the suspense. In the series, Moss’s Agent Imogen Salter–an erratic yet gifted chameleon who excels at undercover work–confidently puts her own Life in Danger (154) as she accepts a Dangerous Mission (125) to befriend a potential foreign terrorist and uncover essential secret information. Her relationship with the foreigner becomes increasingly fraught and loyalties become fluid (Betrayal, 132) as the situation–and the truth–become ever more complicated and lethal (Action & Violence, 139). All are top ratings drivers.

What type of viewing experience will audiences be looking for?
An intense one. The key emotional drivers for The Veil play up its suspense and tension and match the ethos of its challenging, complicated heroine. Viewers will be craving the sense of Fear (150)Anger (150)Aggressiveness (150), and Vigilance (146) brought on by its deadly central game of truth and lies, tempered by feelings of Awe (146) and Amazement (146) at Imogen’s expert abilities as an undercover spy.

What will keep audiences glued to their screens?
The tense Geopolitics (132). Behind Imogen’s covert mission is a knotty tangle of intergovernmental friction and one-upmanship among three countries’ central Espionage (133) agencies. Ruthless personalities within the CIA, the UK’s MI6, and France’s DGSE struggle for power and control while they pretend to cooperate in the face of an impending terrorist threat (Terrorism, 122), and it’s this government-based game of thrones that will keep viewers hooked. Looking back through StoryGuide, the idea of Geopolitics is a fairly rare viewership driver, even among other spy thrillers; The Veil joins only The Regime, Echo 3, The Undeclared WarVigil, Fauda, and Locked Up Abroad in the level of audience importance placed on the theme.

What’s the show’s biggest draw internationally?
Its global spy elements. The Veil offers up a strong international perspective, winding its story between the likes of Istanbul, London, and Paris, and it’s this global approach to espionage that will get non-US territories the most excited. This top driver shows the most promise in New Zealand (123)South Korea (120)Japan (112), and the UK (111), though France (107) seems a bit cooler toward the theme in spite of its own spy agency’s inclusion.

 

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*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside ratings performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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Rapid Insights: Bodkin and the Rise of a New Kind of Protagonist

This Thursday, Netflix is releasing a new dramedy series that will play up true crime and add to a recent trend in modern protagonists: podcasters investigating a murder. Joining the likes of Peacock’s Based on a True Story, Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, and Apple TV+’s Truth Be Told, this new show, which includes SNL’s Will Forte in its cast, will follow three podcasters looking into the mysterious disappearance of several strangers in a tiny Irish town.

Here’s what you need to know about Bodkin:

Vault uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s the audience for these podcast-based series? 
Mature adults. All four of these shows appeal to a heavily older audience, landing at 70-76% aged 30+–a sweet spot that’s older than the typical podcast listener, potentially because of aged-up casts and darker themes. The gender skew, however, varies by series, with Only Murders and Truth Be Told skewing mostly female (63-64%) but Based on a True Story leaning more male (56%). For Bodkin, we’re predicting a gender-balanced viewership (52% male / 48% female).

What does Bodkin have in common with the other shows?
Comedy derived from its podcasters. Bodkin will be driving in a lane similar to both Based on a True Story and Only Murders in that its tone depends on a heavy dose of humor–in Bodkin’s case, sardonic, Twisted Humor (160), contrasting with Based’s Awkward & Funny Moments (130) and Only Murders’ Feel Good Humor (148). All three leverage a comical Team-Up (160) of clashing personalities–whether between goofy spouses (Based), cross-generational friends (Only Murders), or mismatched co-workers (Bodkin)–to inject lighter moments into their murderous drama. In this set, Truth Be Told is actually the odd one out; it’s a drama-thriller rather than comedy, and the main character records her podcast largely by herself.

How is Bodkin different from these other series?
It’s bleaker. The emotional experience that will pull audiences into Bodkin is darker and more harrowing, hinging on feelings like Contempt (160)Terror (121)Rage (116)Annoyance (114), and Fear (111) as the mystery unfurls, the stakes get higher, and the podcasters grow increasingly (and hilariously) pessimistic. The show will also lean heavily into gallows-style humor and colorful Profanity (160), in stark contrast with its predecessors that found success leveraging more pleasant emotions like Anticipation (128) (Truth Be Told), Love (113) (Only Murders), and Acceptance (117) (Based on a True Story).

How else will Bodkin set itself apart?
With its setting. Bodkin will essentially be a ‘fish out of water’ story, with three big-city podcasters visiting an idyllic (and fictitious) small town in rural Ireland and attempting to break through the locals’ hostility toward strangers. Their dip into Irish Culture (121) and their sojourn through the country’s beautiful green landscape (Outdoor Adventure, 157) will help with both ratings and bingeability and provide a unique twist on the theme; in contrast, the other three series all take place in familiar American locales.

What keeps these types of series running through multiple seasons?
The Murder Mysteries (130). For all shows of this ilk, the protagonists’ efforts in Solving a Murder (129) and engaging in Investigative Journalism (125) provide the overarching story engine that keeps audiences coming back. Each season brings a brand new case, with viewers eagerly following along as the podcasters follow clues, interview suspects, and finally announce whodunnit. If Bodkin secures a season two, it will be the irresistibility of its small-town murders that get it there.

Missed one of our recent rapid insights? Catch up on popular titles below:
The Day of the Jackal’s Dual Perspectives Revitalize the Thriller
Family Narratives and Other Key Drivers Behind Successful Historical Sagas
English Teacher Rewrites the Rules of School-Based Comedies

 

 

Introducing Genre DNA™


Redefine your understanding of TV subgenres

Introducing Genre DNA™ – TV subgenres redefined by groundbreaking AI analysis to reveal the true drivers of viewership.

See the insights that others can’t

Genre DNA™ goes beyond traditional TV genre classifications by analyzing over 1,000 scripted and unscripted series on both linear and SVOD platforms from the last 5 years.

Each Vault Genre DNA™ report offers a precise analysis of your chosen TV subgenre, uncovering its unique drivers of viewership.

*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

Stay in the know

Subscribe to get Rapid Insights delivered to your inbox or follow us on LinkedIn

Past Rapid Insights: Miss one? Check out previous issues here

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