Month: June 2023

Amazon Prime Video’s newest original series, releasing next week, will be joining the swelling ranks of buzzy scripted shows developed from popular podcasts. This notable list includes the likes of Gaslit, The Dropout, Dirty John, and The Shrink Next Door from the based-on-a-true-story side, as well as Homecoming and Archive 81 from the purely fictional; Prime’s horror-dramedy will join the latter as the Sweeney Todd-inspired story of an ex-felon masseuse who inadvertently becomes a killer. For this analysis, The Horror of Dolores Roach trailer was examined, though it is not unusual for Vault to analyze podcasts, something done early on to test the commercial viability of content even before a script has been written.

Here’s what you need to know about The Horror of Dolores Roach and this podcast-based trend:

Is there a typical audience for these types of shows?
Not really. The specific story being told determines who’ll be watching it, from the heavily female-skewing (Dirty John, The Thing About Pam) to the more male-leaning (WeCrashed, Joe vs Carole), though nearly all appeal most strongly to viewers 30+. For Dolores Roach, we’re predicting a balanced viewership (51% female) and being mostly older (67% aged 30+).

What do podcast-based series tend to have in common?
Dark twists. These tales–whether fictional or not–are filled with Scandal, Conspiracy & Cover-Ups, Betrayal, Moral Dilemmas, Scheming, and Ruthlessness, all of which provide excellent fodder for a story told in chapters. Audiences can’t help but come back to watch the shocking events unfold, whether it’s the hubris-filled downfall of a company (WeCrashed, The Dropout), the concealment of murder (The Thing About Pam, Dr. Death, Dolores Roach), or abusers and con artists behaving badly (Dirty John, The Shrink Next Door, Homecoming).

What makes these shows so watchable?
The relationships. To flesh out their deception-filled worlds, these series turn the spotlight onto the protagonists’ loved ones, who either contribute to their schemes or become innocent collateral damage. Either way, the focus on themes like Family Conflict, Marital Problems, Mother-Child Relationships, Family Dysfunction, Unlikely Friendship, and Coworker Dynamics adds layers and emotional stakes to the can’t-look-away core conspiracies.

What will set Dolores Roach apart?
Its setting. While the series leans into the same central themes that make podcast-based shows popular (Conspiracy & Cover-Ups, 152; Moral Dilemmas, 135; Friendship, 129), it’s the specificity of its world that will draw in viewers. Dolores Roach’s built-in Cultural Diversity (160) as it follows Latino characters in the rapidly gentrifying neighborhood of Washington Heights (NYC Setting, 129) and its plunge into the Culinary World (128) of a Sweeney Todd-inspired empanada shop will help drive both ratings and bingeability.

Is the original source podcast important to a show’s ratings?
No. Though it may help with initial buzz, the podcast IP that gave birth to these scripted series is not a top reason for viewers to watch them; instead, audiences tune in for the specific story being told. That said, a show Based on a True Story that has hit the zeitgeist–which the original podcast may have fed into–can indeed ride the popularity of its tale to better ratings (The Dropout, WeCrashed, The Thing About Pam, Dr. Death, Joe vs Carol).

Next month, a year and change after last summer’s runaway smash Top Gun: Maverick, Paramount will release the newest fruit of its long-time collaboration with megastar Tom Cruise: the next entry in the Mission: Impossible franchise. With the story split across two movies, the spy-based action-thriller will follow Ethan Hunt and his IMF team as they race around the globe to track down a terrifying new weapon before it can fall into the wrong hands.

Here’s what you need to know about Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One:

Who will be lining up to see this film in theaters?
A relatively wide viewership. We’re predicting an audience that skews male (66%) and older (58% aged 30+), a profile in line with 2018’s Mission: Impossible –  Fallout. Comparing Dead Reckoning to Maverick, there are some differences reflected in audience demand. Specifically, younger males are even more excited for Dead Reckoning (138) than they were for Maverick (125), while older males show the opposite ((143) vs. (154), respectively), though it is worth pointing out that all these scores are in the outstanding range.

Will Tom Cruise fans follow its charismatic star to Dead Reckoning?
Absolutely. Leveraging data from TV Time’s 12 million registered users, our analysis reveals that those who love Cruise’s most recent films (including Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and The Mummy) have an outstanding level of engagement for Dead Reckoning. Unsurprisingly, devotees of the Mission: Impossible franchise also register with an outstanding score. In contrast, the score for Top Gun: Maverick fans is not quite at the same high level of these aforementioned fan groups. This audience pattern suggests that fans of the Top Gun and Mission Impossible franchises do not entirely overlap. It also speaks to the unique storytelling elements that each franchise offers.

How can Dead Reckoning pull in as many Top Gun fans given that film’s success?
Focus on the mission and stunts. Ethan Hunt and his team’s quest to stop a weapon of mass destruction echoes Maverick and his trainees’ goal of decommissioning a nuclear weapons plant and will leave viewers similarly on the edge of their seats. Maverick lovers drawn to that film’s action-packed Aerial Combat (117) and life-or-death stakes are likely to be interested in Dead Reckoning’s extreme stunts, heroic, save-the-world Impossible Mission (114), and nail-biting Race Against Time (112).

What separates Top Gun: Maverick from Dead Reckoning?
Its unique blend of excitement and nostalgia. Thanks to its focus on rivalry, competition and training within the US Navy, Maverick welded aspects of the War (126) and Sports (120) genres onto its action-thriller base, genres that don’t appear in Dead Reckoning, but undoubtedly appealed to male fans. At the same time, the film effectively leaned into emotional nostalgia with themes of Overcoming Grief (115), being Haunted by the Past (112), and Mentorship (110) of the next generation; all were key drivers of viewership.

What will set Dead Reckoning apart from previous Mission: Impossible films?
New stunts and a new character. The headliner moment in Dead Reckoning–that Tom Cruise performed himself–is a death-defying cliff jump on a motorcycle, and that plus a complicated sequence on a crashing train (Extreme Stunts, 119; High-Speed Pursuit, 118) is what will get people talking online. The movie also features several Kick-Ass Women (110) returning from Mission: Impossible – Fallout alongside a strong new heroine played by Hayley Atwell. These highlights, along with the franchise’s built-in Spy/Espionage (129) backdrop, help both to differentiate it from Top Gun: Maverick and explain its distinctive fanbase.

Later this month, Apple TV+ will be releasing a tense new thriller that’s sure to take viewers on an unforgettable ride. Taking place in real time, the seven-hour limited series stars Idris Elba as a skilled corporate negotiator who must broker a peaceful ending after his flight from Dubai to London is taken hostage by terrorists.

Here’s what you need to know about Hijack:

Who will be adding Hijack to their queue?
Older men. We’re predicting a mostly male audience (62%) that leans heavily toward those 30+ (74%), a demo profile very similar to male-led, action-heavy thrillers like The Terminal List, Citadel, Jack Ryan, Reacher, and The Old Man. In contrast, Elba’s arguably best-known TV role–as the titular detective in dark crime drama Luther–appealed more to women (54%).

What type of story will this series be telling?
An intense one. Based on the trailer, the show will include strong elements of Action (123) and War (121) as the passengers fight back against the hijackers, all underscored by an edge-of-your-seat Thriller (118) as the stakes become life-or-death for everyone on board.

Why will audiences want to tune in?
For the ticking clock. The show’s real-time Race Against Time (142) ratchets up the tension as Elba’s Sam Nelson embarks on a Dangerous Mission (140) to stop the hijackers, risking his own life in the process. Viewers will lean in for the heightened sense of heart-pounding Vigilance (126) and Aggressiveness (126) on display. Other recent thrillers have also paired these same drivers to great effect, including The Lost Symbol and Leverage: Redemption.

What will be appealing about Idris Elba’s protagonist?
His heroics. Sam’s Bravery (141) in swallowing his fears and Stepping Up (134) in a moment of crisis are also top ratings drivers, and the resulting Admiration (126), Awe (126), Amazement (126), and Optimism (126) that will spring up within the audience will add a twist of positivity to an otherwise heavy, scary story.

What will make this series bingeworthy?
The broader conspiracy. While Sam takes charge in the air, the British armed forces get involved on the ground (Military Operation, 138), aided by several Intelligence Agencies (114) who work to uncover exactly who the terrorists are, what they want (Terrorism, 113), and why there are five nonexistent people listed on the plane’s passenger manifest.

On July 21, two aspiring blockbusters will be going head-to-head in a theatrical release weekend for the ages. Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, will bring the iconic doll to life in a sparklingly pink fantasy-comedy. Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, starring Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, and Matt Damon, will revisit the morally complicated invention of the atomic bomb during WWII.

Here’s what you need to know about this showdown:

Will these films cannibalize each other’s audiences?
No. Instead of competing for the same viewers, these two titles are a perfect example of same-weekend counterprogramming.  For Barbie, we’re predicting a heavy skew toward females under 30 (32%), while Oppenheimer will land squarely among men 30+ (46%).

Why will younger women want to buy tickets for Barbie?
For its winking take on a childhood classic. Viewers will be drawn to its titular Strong Female Protagonist (142) on a Journey of Self-Discovery (120) as she becomes fully self-aware and, along with her famous beau (Ken’s Existential Crisis, 135), learns to question the meaning of life and find true happiness. The comedy infused throughout, from clever Meta-Humor (142) to broadly Absurdist Satire (125), will keep things light. Additionally, the Fantasy-Reality Crossover (124), where the characters leave bubblegum Barbie Land for real-life Venice Beach, will make the movie feel fresh and unique.

Why will older men want to buy tickets to Oppenheimer?
For its deep-dive into a complicated era. In this film, real-world History (138) will be front and center as the story explores nuclear physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer’s Top-Secret Mission (121) to develop a war-ending weapon for the Allies in WWII. Viewers will appreciate the scientist’s deep Inner Conflict (160) as he navigates organizational Power Plays (146) and struggles with the horrifying and potentially world-ending consequences of his ‘mushroom cloud’ invention (Humanity in Peril, 160).

How different will the viewer experience be for these films?
Very. Based on its trailer, Barbie registers primarily as Comedic (125) and Fantastical (110), and audiences can expect to exit the theater feeling Amused (131) and Thrilled (117) by its characters’ adventures. In contrast, Oppenheimer, in spite of dabbling in elements of Spy/Espionage (117) intrigue, will offer a heavier cinematic experience, leaving viewers Reflective (128) and potentially Sad (119).

Will these films see a similar international profile?
No. Our algorithm suggests that Barbie will perform best in Australia (121) and Latin America (Mexico 118, Brazil, 115), while Oppenheimer will likely stand out most in Europe, especially Italy (120), Germany (118), and France (118).

True crime’s soaring popularity has influenced Peacock’s new spoof-comedy-thriller series, premiering on Thursday. Starring Kaley Cuoco and Chris Messina, the show follows a cash-strapped couple trying to profit from a local serial killer by creating an investigative podcast and accusing a neighbor as the perp.

Here’s what you need to know about Based on a True Story:

How will its viewership compare to the typical true crime audience? 
It’ll include more men. We’re predicting that Based on a True Story will lean male (56%) and older (74% aged 30+), with a sweet spot at men 45+. In contrast, murder-based true crime docs like Making a Murderer, Unsolved Mysteries, Invisible Monsters, and The Jinx–as well as the scripted dramas that often spring from them–tend to skew female. Hulu’s true crime podcast spoof Only Murders in the Building also caters mostly to women (63%). All, however, do match Based on a True Story in skewing fairly heavily to adults 30+.

Why will viewers be tuning in?
For Ava and Nathan’s Dysfunctional Relationship (114). The kooky, quirky couple at the heart of Based on a True Story (Team Up, 117) will pull in audiences eager to laugh at their Midlife Crisis (118) and resulting Life-Changing (and possibly life-ending) Decision (117) to develop a true crime podcast for instant riches.

How do Based on a True Story’s ratings drivers compare to those of true crime docs?
They’re focused on the detectives rather than the killer. Whereas Based on a True Story’s biggest draw is its bumbling citizen podcasters, true crime series often pull in audiences by revealing the deep, Dark Secrets (127) (Unsolved Mysteries), Family Dysfunction (124) (Invisible Monsters), and Hidden Truths (113) (Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel) propelling the murderers.

What will help Based on a True Story reach a second season?
Its send-up of true crime tropes. Viewers will be drawn in by the hapless Criminal Investigation (133) as a pair of incompetents attempt to solve a Murder Mystery (130) through poorly-thought-out sleuthing and deduction (Amateur Hour, 117). These drivers will provide a rich basis for future seasons of storytelling, and all are key factors for longevity.

What’s the difference between Based on a True Story and similar spoof Only Murders?
Tone. While both series’ bingeability is driven by comedy, Only Murders in the Building takes a warmer, lighter approach (Feel Good Humor, 148) as it focuses on the Unlikely Friendship (128) between its mismatched trio of aspiring true crime podcasters. Based on a True Story will instead lean into the darker Twisted Humor (151) of a suspenseful neighborhood killing spree (Murder Violence, 118) and Ava’s attempts to profit from this new ‘it’ murderer.