Rapid Insights: ‘Death by Lightning’ Exposes the Real Engine of Historical Hits

Netflix recently premiered a buzzy new historical drama that has collected reams of critical acclaim and appeared on the streamer’s Top 10 list since its release. Featuring a star-studded cast, the limited series follows the 1880s election, presidency, and assassination of US President James Garfield (Michael Shannon), a pro-civil rights politician shot by a deluded admirer (Matthew Macfadyen).

Here’s what you need to know about Death by Lightning:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs: 
≤79 Disappointing  80-89 Challenging  90-109 Average  110-119 Promising  120+ Outstanding

Who’s been streaming this rich docudrama? 
We’re seeing an audience composed mostly of men (61%) and those 30+ (80%), a viewership profile similar to many other male-heavy dramas–both fictional and non–about American history (Turn: Washington’s SpiesThe Good Lord BirdDeadwoodGaslit). In contrast, US historical series with more prominent female characters (The First LadyThe Gilded Age) tend to lean more toward women, while war epics (Band of BrothersThe PacificMasters of the Air) are even more prominently favored by men.

How important is the historical aspect of the story? 
Not as important as expected. Similar shows ripped from the annals of history tend to have key ratings drivers explicitly related to their real-world connection: Based on Historical Events (142, Band of Brothers)Based on a True Story (131The First Lady)American History (117Boardwalk Empire). Instead, Death by Lightning’s main pull is its in-world tension, from the political Power Struggles (145) as Garfield clinches the presidency, to the myriad challenges to his Leadership (127), to the Murder Violence (132)-driven Tragic Event (136) at the series’ core. Audiences are tuning in to see the swirling political and psychological drama that unfolds, and to watch both Garfield and his unhinged assassin pursue Power (136) and Social Status (136).

What type of viewing experience are audiences lining up for? 
A rough Emotional Roller Coaster (125). The show follows the ups and downs of both President Garfield as he pursues idealistic aims–civil rights, anti-corruption, education–and his soon-to-be murderer Charles J. Guiteau as he fails in his attempts to join Garfield’s inner circle. A frustrated office-seeker believing himself entitled to power, Guiteau’s mental state deteriorates as he’s denied access to the president, flashing through a host of wildly-swinging emotions: Terror (136)Contempt (136)Remorse (133)Rage (131)Loathing (127)Admiration (124), and even Optimism (124). Viewers are leaning in to witness the chaotic and ultimately combustible emotional link between the two.

Does Death by Lightning also offer international appeal? 
Absolutely, though the key drivers are a bit different. As in America, Garfield’s impending assassination (Tragic Event) is a crucial ratings propeller for global audiences, particularly pulling in the UK (133), South Korea (148), and Japan (135). However, Garfield’s Political Life–his policies, his career, and the broader trends of the era–carries notably more weight abroad than it does in the US, perhaps because viewers are more curious about a government that’s not their own. Australia (133), Brazil (121), Canada (127), New Zealand (157), and Mexico (139) are especially interested in the latter driver.

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*Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms – utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets – to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.

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